What can Washington expect from Luke McCaffrey?

June 10, 2024

by Steve Thomas

I’d like everyone to ask themselves this question: if Luke McCaffrey wasn’t the son of a highly accomplished former NFL player and the brother of the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year,  but instead a normal third round pick of unknown background, what would be reasonable to expect from him?  Fans are hoping for McCaffrey to be great, for sure, but is this fair, or even possible?  Today, we’ll explore this issue a little bit as we slog through the doldrums of the NFL calendar.

McCaffrey attended high school in Colorado. He spent his first two college seasons, 2019 and 2020, at the University of Nebraska before transferring to Louisville, but then left that university a few months later for Rice, where he remained for the 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons.  He started out his college career competing to be the quarterback at both Nebraska and Rice.  He didn’t earn the starting job at either university and eventually moved to the receiver position in 2022, at which he started in 2022 and 2023.  In total, he played in 44 games, and made 131 receptions for 1732 yards, 13.2 yards per reception, and 19 touchdowns, as well as 157 rushing attempts for 927 yards, 5.9 yards per carry, and another 7 touchdowns.  In 2023, McCaffrey had 71 receptions for 992 yards, 14.0 yards per reception, and 13 touchdowns, and 15 rushing attempts for 117 yards, for 7.8 yards per carry.  At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.46 seconds and the 20 yard shuttle in 4.02 seconds, and jumped 36 inches in the vertical leap and 10’1” in the standing broad jump.

McCaffrey was rated by the draft evaluation community by much lower in the draft process than his brother, Christian McCaffrey.  Luke is viewed by most as a possession receiver best suited for the slot, but believe that he has great hands. However, scouts feel that his route running still needs work, and also question his ability to separate from defenders.

After watching his film, I agree with the commonly held view that McCaffrey has great hands.  He’s a disciplined receiver, never drops balls, and understands how to operate in traffic.  He’s a physical player and was able to win battles in close coverage by being disciplined and physical.  McCaffrey also tracks the ball well in the air.  However, I don’t view him as having advanced route running skills, and, despite his fairly good 40 time, he doesn’t come across as being overly quick down the field on the fairly uncommon times that he’s on deep routes.  He doesn’t make big, obvious mistakes in his routes, but he also doesn’t often separate and doesn’t seem to have advanced, agile moves.  He looked fairly unremarkable in that regard.  I did not much of him blocking in the run game one way or the other.

McCaffrey strikes me as the type of player whose track speed and short-distance burst may be better than his football speed.  McCaffrey seems to be a bit quicker immediately off the line of scrimmage, but in my view, he isn’t nearly as dynamic or agile as a typical elite NFL receiver.  At Rice, McCaffrey mostly lined up in the slot, and at 6’2”, he could possibly be a mismatch against NFL slot corners, who are often smaller.

In summary, from his game film, McCaffrey’s strengths are his hands and ability to make plays in traffic, and the tough nature of his play style.  His negatives are his inability to separate, solid but unremarkable route running, average game speed, and limited positional versatility.

The fact that his film is against the lower-tier competition that Rice played is also important.  His skills as a receiver are possibly highlighted in a way that wouldn’t be the same against better college defenses.  I don’t think his ability to play a physical style is at the level of some of the top NFL receivers, but against the caliber of defenses he faced at Rice, it comes across in a better way.  McCaffrey is a physical receiver, but because his collegiate experience was at a lower level, we don’t have evidence as to whether he’ll be able to have that kind of success at the pro level.

In my view, McCaffrey’s “possession receiver” label is probably accurate.  At this time, I don’t believe that he is either dynamic or experienced enough to be more than that without significant development in the coming years.  He’s a player who would need to significantly develop in order to earn a position as an outside, X or Z receiver in the NFL.  The nature of Washington’s receiver group means that he’ll have a legitimate shot to take ownership of the #3 slot role, particularly since Dyami Brown was (1) drafted by the prior staff, and (2) has shown promise at times but hasn’t excelled.

In my view, Washington probably slightly overdrafted McCaffrey because of his name and lineage, even considering that he was the final pick of round 3; of course, that doesn’t mean that he won’t be successful.  Most scouts had him rated anywhere from round 4 to day 3, and that was probably fair.

Therefore, the answer to my original question posed at the start is that what’s reasonable to expect from him is that of a tough, quality #3 slot receiver, but not more.  However, that having been said, the fact that he’s a McCaffrey isn’t meaningless.  His father, who was a 2x Pro Bowl selectee, was his childhood coach, and he’s no doubt been absorbing quite a bit of the modern game from his brother.  If anyone has top-notch football IQ, it’s Luke McCaffrey.  That doesn’t always show up on a fairly basic film review like I did here, but that matters.  McCaffrey will be easy to coach and motivated to live up to his family heritage.

It also should not be lost on anyone that he is very inexperienced at the wide receiver position.  I didn’t watch his film from prior to the 2023 season, but scouts were of the opinion that he made significant improvements last year.  He most likely isn’t a finished product yet, and that matters.

In the end, while I wouldn’t have drafted him in the position at which did Washington, I think he’ll probably do well in DC.  The team will need to give him some time – probably a couple of seasons – before giving up on him in order to let him continue to develop and live up to his potential.

What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section below.