Chris Rodriguez: Washington’s secret weapon?

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June 17, 2024

by Steve Thomas

Washington’s fanbase seems to be ignoring, or at least underrating, running back Chris Rodriguez.  He didn’t get many carries as a rookie and was clearly the third string running back behind both Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson, but he should have been given more of a chance.  What I’d like to do today is dive into his number, particularly some of the lesser known, advanced stats to see where Rodriguez measured up as compared to Washington’s other 2023 running backs, as well as projected 2024 starter Austin Ekeler.

In college at the University of Kentucky, Rodriguez played in 40 games over 5 seasons, with a total of 592 carries for 3643 yards, 6.2 yards per carry, and 33 touchdowns, plus an additional 20 receptions for 116 yards, 5.8 yards per reception, and 3 touchdowns.  In 2022, He played 8 games and had 175 carries for 904 yards, 5.2 yards per carry, and 6 touchdowns, plus 5 receptions for 41 yards, 8.2 yards per reception.  Rodriguez was convicted of driving under the influence, careless driving, and driving without taillamps in June, 2022, and as a result was suspended for the first 4 games of the season.  He was a First Team All-SEC selection in 2021.  He did 19 bench press reps at the NFL Combine.

At the time of the 2023 draft, most scouts thought of Rodriguez as solely a downhill power runner.  Scouts viewed him as a mauler-style runner who can move piles, but as one who lacks burst and ability to change directions.  He was seen as a two-down power runner, not an elusive game-changer.  At the time, my view was that Rodriguez was most likely best served by playing a specific role amongst a stable of running backs.

As a rookie, Rodriguez had 51 carries for 247 yards, for 4.8 yards per carry, and 2 touchdowns.  He was active for 13 games and had carries in 8.

As a comparison, here are the basic 2023 stats for Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson:

Gibson: 65 carries, 265 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 1 touchdown

Robinson: 178 carries, 733 yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 5 touchdowns

Washington’s presumed 2024 starter, spent his entire career from 2017 – 2023 with the Chargers, and posted the following last season:

Ekeler: 179 carries, 628 yards, 3.5 yards per carry, 5 touchdowns

As you can see, Rodriguez is far ahead of both Robinson and Ekeler in yards per carry, but that shouldn’t be news to anyone.  It also must be said that 178 and 179 carries is more than 3 times the number given to Rodriguez, although 51 carries is a statistically relevant number.

Now, check out the following additional statistics for each player:

Name Yards before contact/att Yards after contact/att Att / broken tackle
Ekeler 1.8 1.7 19.9
Gibson 1.9 2.2 13.0
Robinson 2.2 1.9 11.1
Rodriguez 2.4 2.4 10.2

As the chart shows, Rodriguez is better than the others in every category: yards before contact per attempt, yards after contact per attempt, and attempts per broken tackle.  The “yards before contact per attempt” stat, in particular, is somewhat tied to the performance of the offensive line, but in the case of Gibson, Robinson, and Rodriguez, the offensive line was the same and thus not a variable.  With the obvious caveat that both Ekeler and Robinson had a significantly great number of carries than did either Rodriguez or Gibson, it’s still pretty important that Rodriguez (a) took longer before getting hit, (b) ran farther after getting hit, and (c) broke tackles at a better rate than did any of the others.

To put these numbers into context, the Dolphins’ De’Von Achane led the NFL last season with 3.1 yards after contact per attempt, for running backs who had 50 or more carries.  However, Archane was an outlier.  Rodriguez’s 2.4 yards after contact per attempt was tied with 5 others for 9th in league, behind only Archane, the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor (2.7), Detroit’s Jahmyr Gibbs (2.5), and the Browns’ Pierre Strong (2.5).  Rodriguez was tied for 7th in the league at yards before contact per attempt, for running backs with 50 or more carries.  He was ranked 15th in the NFL in 2023 at attempts per broken tackle for running backs with at least 50 carries, which isn’t spectacular, but is definitely squarely in the “starter” category.  Rodriguez’s 4.8 yards per carry was tied for 10th in the league last season for running backs with 50 or more carries.

Last year, approximately 39% of Rodriguez’s carries went for more than 5 yards per carry.  In contrast, approximately 33% of Robinson’s carries went for more than 5 yards per carry.  Robinson has significantly more carries that went for big gains, 10 yards or more, than did Rodriguez. However, Robinson also had significantly more carries that went for very small yardage than Rodriguez.  In other words, Rodriguez was far more consistent but less explosive than Robinson.

I previously wrote  about Austin Ekeler, and said that “it appears fairly unlikely that Ekeler will be able to turn back the clock two years and become a consistently above-average running back again.”  There’s normally a certain fiscal reality to construction of a depth chart, and that’s probably the case here.  Ekeler is a free agent signing by Adam Peters with a contract that has $4.2M guaranteed and a $3.2M cap hit this year; Rodriguez is a 6th round draft pick by the prior administration and has a cap hit of only $1.37M.  As a result, Ekeler needs to and will start this year, for monetary reasons if for no others.

My point with this column, though, is that the numbers tell us that, in a limited sample size, Chris Rodriguez was more effective than any of these players, and not by a little bit.  In some cases, by a significant margin.  Washington’s coaching staff should absolutely give him a chance to prove that he can be a player who deserves significant carries.  He’s at least proved that much.  Brian Robinson has a great story and was a starter-level high draft pick, so it wasn’t surprising that he was the starter last year and was popular amongst the fans, but the truth is that Rodriguez was better by just about every measure.  This isn’t a guarantee that Rodriguez can keep up these kinds of stats if he got 180 carries a season, but he’s earned the chance to see if he can.

Let’s start a movement, everyone!  Free Chris Rodriguez!