Should Washington Be All In On Trading for Brandon Aiyuk?

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June 28, 2024

by David Earl

What Does History Say?

I went back to the last 10 Super Bowls to examine the role that the wide receivers played and which ones were elite players during that time. During these games, Julian Edelman, Tyreek Hill, Mike Evans, and Cooper Kupp are the most prominent names. Of these four names, only Evans and Kupp were on an offense without elite tight end play (Rob Gronkowski was past his elite prime for Tampa Bay in 2021). What separates Evans and Kupp here is that Tampa Bay was never even close being to a championship team until the arrival of Tom Brady and Gronkowski. Kupp achieved ultimate success upon the arrival of Matthew Stafford, but one could argue Stafford needed Kupp more so than the other way around. Besides that point, the common theme is that most of these champions (6 out of 10) won with elite play by the quarterback and tight end in these seasons. The three teams without that elite quarterback and tight end combo, Broncos, Rams, and Buccaneers, had championship-level defenses. The one anomaly would be the 2017 Eagles who won with journeyman quarterback Nick Foles but had a top defensive unit and one of the league’s best tight in the league Zach Ertz. What were these championship team’s highest-paid wide receivers?

Trading for Brandon Aiyuk would be completely pointless and reckless, right? Well, hold on for just a second – let’s break down some of the information above. The following considerations run through my thought process on whether or not I am all in on an Aiyuk trade.

Patrick Mahomes: He was a year removed from an MVP season in 2018 and entered his 3rd NFL season in 2019 having a bit less productive season. His passing yards, yards per attempt, completion percentage, and touchdowns did take a relatively significant dip. Still, the Chiefs generated results on the back of Travis Kelce, who had 1,229 yards off 97 receptions, and a defense ranked 7th in points allowed at 19.2 per game. Relax as this is not a “Mahomes was not a good quarterback” post. The Chiefs prevailed as champions, not because of the investment of a high-paid wide receiver in Sammy Watkins, but as a result of the team’s long-term development of talent before drafting Mahomes. The organization had already established an elite-level skill position by drafting receiver Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelse, and running back Kareem Hunt who ended up being released due to a domestic violence incident. Talent-wise, is Washington in this same position today?

Back-to-Back Kansas City Chiefs: Fast forward a few more years, and a Chiefs team led by the best quarterback and tight end, in the entire NFL, Mahomes and Kelce, won the last two Super Bowls. These title runs featured a wide receiver in Marquez Valdes-Scantling whose salary number ranked 36th and 21st in his respective seasons with the Chiefs. No wide receiver reached 1,000 receiving yards receiving in either year. The 2022 season was very much a result of league MVP Mahomes’ 41 touchdown passes, and Kelce’s 110 receptions as their defense ranked 16th on points per game allowed, at 21.7. This past year saw a vastly improved and young defense allowi the second-lowest points per game at 17.3. Does adding Brandon Aiyuk help Washington emulate either of the Chiefs’ last two seasons?

Washington Redskins Investment a Dud: In the 2015 season, the Denver Broncos were led by one of the top defensive units in the league and their wide receiver, Emmanuel Sanders, was the 18th-ranked paid receiver at $5.8 million, which was highest paid to a receiver on the team. Their defense ranked 1st in total yards at 283.1 per game and 4th in total points per game average at 18.5 while their offense ranked 19th in points per game at 22.2. The Broncos paved a championship path witha great defense and an efficient offense, while the Redskins had two of the top ten highest-paid wide receivers, finished 9-7, and had a first-round playoff exit. A trade for Aiyuk and an inevitable new contract extension would give Washington two of the top ten highest-paid wide receivers as Terry McLaurin is due to earn $24.1 million, ranked 8th. The difference between the Redskins 2015 season and Washington’s 2024 season is the lack of experience this year’s team has at the quarterback position. Is Washington’s defense ready to come even close to the Broncos’ 2015 defense?

The Quarterback and Tight End Relationship: Of these last 10 champions, eight had a quarterback and tight end relationship that was core to the offense’s success. Let’s address the other six situations before you point out the obvious in Zach Ertz for the Eagles and Gronkowski for the Buccaneers. During their time in New England, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski had a championship run that resulted in a 3-1 Super Bowl record in this stretch. Their lone loss was in a high-scoring game against Ertz and the Philadelphia Eagles which they lost late in the game. Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce were the catalysts for the offense and resulted in Kansas City’s 3-1 championship record. This relationship between these players ad their quarterbacks and being regarded as one of the best at their respective positions has showed that perhaps an investment in the tight end investment could pay higher dividends. As far as Zach Ertz, he was regarded as one of the league’s top tight ends and was a great asset for a quarterback in Nick Foles when he took over for the injured Carson Wentz. While the Eagle’s defense paved the way, Ertz opened up the offense as an unmeasurable asset. Finally, Rob Gronkowski was past his prime in Tampa Bay, but that having been said, the rapport he had with Tom Brady cannot be overlooked either in their Super Bowl run. Does Washington have that established relationship with Jayden Daniels and Ben Sinnott?

Final Thoughts

The purpose of this column was to help put a few perspectives on the table for everyone to consider as they venture down the road of advocating for a trade for Brandon Aiyuk. The scenarios pointed out above are what register as the most important aspect of my decision. I break down each of the questions asked above as follows:

  1. Is Washington (talent-wise) in this same position today? Offensively Washington does not even come close to what Kansas City had when Patrick Mahomes entered his third season. They do not have a tight end who is even remotely comparable to Travis Kelce today, or for that matter, even an established, reliable tight end. While Terry McLaurin is an excellent player and great team leader, he has yet to prove to be on the level of production as Tyreek Hill. If you blame the rotation of quarterbacks, I will not argue that point, but you cannot point to McLaurin’s career today as being comparable to Hill just yet. This answer is a definitive no.
  2. Does adding Brandon Aiyuk help Washington emulate either of the Chiefs’ last two seasons? This one doesn’t need a detailed answer: that’s an obvious no entering 2024, considering that the quarterback is an unknown rookie, Jayden Daniels. Could Washington pull off a similar season to 2012 with Jayden Daniels after adding Aiyuk? That is a far more reasonable expectation and they certainly could.
  3. Is Washington’s defense ready to come even close to the Broncos’ 2015 defense? Quick answer: no. There are far more questions than answers for Dan Quinn to iron out.
  4. Does Washington have that established relationship with Jayden Daniels and Ben Sinnott? These two guys have great upside and will have every opportunity to grow chemistry between the two. As rookies there just is not a rational way to believe Daniels and Sinnott could produce the results in year one as the tandems mentioned above. This answer is obviously a wait-and-see.

Thus, as you may have already guessed, trading for Brandon Aiyuk is not a move that makes sense at this moment. However, to say I’d be upset if a deal is made isn’t correct, either, because Aiyuk is a fantastic wide receiver and is only 26 years old. The point is that I just don’t see the sense of investing the money and assets at this moment for a luxury move when more prominent holes are prevalent. Washington lacks any true offensive tackles and a dynamic edge rusher, and the secondary is a major question mark. In my opinion, Adam Peters just needs to stay the course while building around this team’s most important piece, Jayden Daniels. I realize that wide receiver is a major component in a quarterback’s development, but so is having offensive tackles that can hold a block consistently every week in order to keep Daniels clean and out of harm’s way. If by some miracle the offensive line gels together, especially with rookie tackle Brandon Coleman, and the team seems to be tracking in the right direction quickly, then trade for Aiyuk if still available.