Using the past to predict preseason playing time

August 7, 2024

by Alex Zeese

On last week’s Hog Sty Podcast, I asked whether it was possible to use the past to predict preseason play time, and Steve pushed me into doing some research. What can Dan Quinn’s past coaching stops tell us about how much players will play in preseason? To do this, I decided to look at both his most recent stop as defensive coordinator in Dallas and his last two seasons in Atlanta where he was head coach. Both spots come with a few caveats.

It’s very hard to find detailed information on pre-season games. Pro-Football-Reference is typically our go-to source for stats and data, but they do not keep any details on the preseason in their database. It perhaps shouldn’t shock anyone that I was unable to find, anywhere, where we can get snap counts for a preseason game that took place 5 years ago. I therefore had to rely on some basic stats I was able to find on Google. While they don’t have the ideal data points, we can look at some basic points, the key ones being to see whether the starting QB or any star players from the season accumulate any stats.

When Quinn was in Dallas, no one should be shocked that the pampered prima donnas of Texas benched all their starters through preseason. While they would mostly play some of their rotational guys – and you could see a few recognizable names on defense like Jabril Cox, and Dante Fowler – you don’t see anyone at the level of Micah Parsons on the stat sheet. At quarterback, you will find a lot of Will Grier and Cooper Rush throwing passes. Basically, the Cowboys followed the league-wide trend of not playing starters anymore in preseason games.

I don’t know how much of this you can take away and say “Quinn will keep starters out of the game.” In Dallas as the defensive coordinator, the odds are that Quinn probably didn’t have full say as to who would play in preseason. It’s most likely that both Mike McCarthy and Jerry Jones were the ones making those kinds of calls. Also, the Cowboys had a lot of established stars on their roster, and a veteran QB, which a very different situation from what Quinn has here in Washington.

Now, let us look at the more valuable part of Dan Quinn’s career. There are two things to consider regarding Coach Quinn’s time as head coach in Atlanta. In his final season as head coach, there was no preseason due to the pandemic, and in the years prior the league was still the old 4 preseason game, 16 regular season game set up, not the new 3 and 17 format we are working with today.

When we look at Quinn’s final preseason in 2019, Quinn’s use of starters is fairly traditional for how most teams did things at the time. That season, he had five preseason games because Atlanta was in the Hall of Fame Game, and like every Hall of Fame game, no starters actually participated in the game itself. None of Quinn’s starters played in his 2nd preseason game of that year or in the final preseason game. The starters got most of their work in during weeks 2 and 3. Matt Ryan had 14 pass attempts in both games, and starting running backs, receivers, and tight ends all put up minor stats here and there as did some key defensive players.

Similar numbers are also there in 2018. In week one of the preseason it looks like Matt Ryan and the starting offense had one series, with just 1 pass attempt. The starting running back that year, Tevin Colman, had 3 carries, and top wideout Calvin Ridley and tight end Austin Hooper had one catch each. Week 2 and 3 again looked fairly normal for the time, with Ryan that year having 7 and 12 pass attempts in both games. That and the other top players’ numbers would tell me that likely they all got a quarter or maybe a little more in each of weeks 2 and 3. Everyone of note was benched for the final preseason game.

This is/was a fairly traditional “arc” for how much playing time starting players usually saw in the preseason in the late 2010s. However, the trend to keep stars out of preseason had already begun at this point, with Sean McVay setting that trend in his first year in Los Angeles in 2017. It would be very surprising to see Quinn keep all his starters off the field in his first preseason here in Washington. I know it’s the thing to do now in the league, but with so many new players on the roster, the roster needs to gel as much as possible, especially with a rookie quarterback to develop at the same time. While I’m sure that we won’t see anyone of importance start in the final preseason game vs New England here in DC, I fully would expect to see at least a series or two in week one and a heavy workload in the 2nd preseason game for all the top players on the roster.