Washington 2024 Season Outlook: Predicting The Numbers

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September 6, 2024

by David Earl

Offensively Focused

Earlier this offseason I expressed my skepticism about the Kliff Kingsbury hire, which you can read here. Now, entering the week 1 matchup versus Tampa Bay I, I need to reassess my thoughts based on some camp reactions from fans and local media coverage. The offense has shown pre-snap movement, and, at the line of scrimmage, checks that dictate the play being run. Before you say, “Dude all NFL offenses do this,” be sure to read the linked column, as that was not the case during Kingsbury’s time in Arizona. Going into these predictions, not only will I use his first year in Arizona while adapting the offensive philosophy I thought he’d bring to Washington.

Recalling the 2019 season in Arizona, Kingsbury’s offense ranked 16th with a total of 361 points scored averaging 22.6 points per game. Arizona averaged 62.5 plays per game while passing the ball 60.4% of the time with a then-rookie quarterback Kyler Murray who subsequently won the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. This was a year Arizona had the 25th-ranked offensive line in sack percentage, at 8.28%, and allowed 3.1 sacks per game. There are many similarities between the state of Arizona’s offense in 2019 to what we see in Washington heading into the 2024 season. Using that 2019 Arizona offense as a baseline plus adjusting to the apparent adaptation of Kingsbury’s offensive scheme, how do I project this season?

  • QB Jayden Daniels: In the air, I project that he goes 420 for 565 pass attempts for 3,780 yards, 9 yards per attempt, 64% completion, 23 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. On the ground, he’ll have 500+ yards and 5 touchdowns. He will just miss a total of 30 touchdowns and finish second in Offensive Rookie of the Year.
  • RB Brian Robinson Jr: I project that he gets 260 of the potential 420 rushing attempts and gains 1,092 yards, which is 4.2 yards per attempt, and 6 touchdowns. Even though Austin Ekeler will be the primary receiving running back, Robinson Jr. will be active in the passing game and amass 32 receptions for 288 yards and 1 touchdown.
  • Austin Ekeler: In the run game I see 153 attempts for 596 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, and 3 touchdowns. The passing game will be the biggest asset not only schematically but also as a check-down when Jayden Daniels is under pressure. I project 63 receptions for 580 yards, 9.2 yards per reception, and 4 touchdowns.
  • Terry McLaurin: As the primary receiver, McLaurin will account for 135 of the 565 total passing attempts. He will break the 90 reception mark, hauling in 93 receptions for 1,302 yards, at 14 yards per reception, which is his career average, and 9 touchdowns.
  • Tight End Group: Zach Ertz will certainly have a major role and start the year but Ben Sinnott should find more targets as the year progresses and Daniels settles in. I see a combined 95 targets between the two, for a total of 62 receptions, 700 yards receiving, and 4 touchdowns

Bonus Predictions

Going to the offensive line I can see a major shift by mid-season. Andrew Wylie will continue to struggle at right tackle and be replaced by an overmatched rookie at left tackle, Brandon Coleman. I am not convinced he is ready to be a left tackle in this league but he will find his way at right tackle when replacing Wylie, with Cornelius Lucas finishing the season at left tackle. Lacking a true number one corner – in my opinion, barely having a number two – and facing the Eagles and Cowboys twice plus teams like Tampa Bay, Chicago, Cincinnati, and Atlanta on the schedule, this secondary will be among the league’s worst, allowing several 20-plus yard plays in the passing game. This team’s defensive tackles and the much-improved linebacker core will result in a top-10 defense against the run, especially with Jeremy Chinn‘s presence in the box.

What are your predictions and season hot takes?