Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Red Zone Nightmares

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September 18, 2024

by David Earl

Kliff Kingsbury and the Offense

I have voiced my concerns with Kliff Kingsbury since the offseason up to just last week, and my initial reaction to the game appeared more of the same. However, after giving it more thought, the proper stance should obviously be a wait-and-see approach. Last week, courtesy of True Media Sports, the Kingsbury offense utilized motion pre-snap just under 40% of the time. After week 2 there is a slight increase in use of motion to just above 40%. As his offense continues to grow with Jayden Daniels and his pre-snap motion sample size becomes more calculatable, let’s reserve judgment here but see just how efficient the offense has been.

While Washington struggled to score any touchdowns in the red zone, Kingsbury had them moving the ball at 6.2 yards per play and a 3rd down efficiency of 50%. This was an improvement from week 1, in which the team averaged 5.3 yards per play and and 3rd down efficiency of just 25%, albeit against a stronger opponent in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. As the level of competition from week 1 to week 2 is looked at as a stark disparity, Washington’s week 2 performance offers some insight into how efficiently Kingsbury’s offense can run. As a whole, after 2 weeks, Kingsbury has maintained a balance balanced approach. Washington is ranked 10th in total yards per game after week 2. Averaging 5.4 yards per rush, with the help of Jayden Daniels’s legs, Washington has been very efficient in the passing game in turn. They are currently ranked 2nd in completion percentage at 75.47%, and ranked 10th in yards per pass at 7.0, even behind an offensive line ranked 29th in sack percentage allowed, at 11.67%.

Speaking of this offensive line, they committed a total of 5 false starts and an ineligible man downfield penalty.  Each of those infractions were critical in stalling drives, especially in the red zone. Between the penalties and being ranked near dead last in pass protection, the concerns about this group continue to grow. It’s early but the hits on Jayden Daniels need to be limited in the future – the Giants had 5 sacks and 7 additional quarterback hits. The one bright spot here is that unlike last season, Washington is keeping a focus on establishing the run game early.  This, in turn, allows Daniels the opportunity off of play action to use his mobility and move the pocket. It’s also the run game that led to one of Kingsbury’s best offensive calls to Austin Ekeler, which was a misdirection play to the right with throw back to Ekeler for nearly a 30 yard pass play down inside the 10 yard line. This type of play, as well as the increase of pre-snap motion, is what Kingsbury will need to infuse more each week to keep some of the pressure off Jayden Daniels. While some will complain about his playcalling, I’d suggest being patient a few more weeks rather than revisiting or evaluating whether he is the same playcaller in Arizona or if he has adapted. All-in-all, to be honest, he has not been terrible, but we still need to see more.

 

Jayden Daniels Looking The Part

Some questioned Jayden Daniels’s ability to process an NFL offense efficiently and whether he’d be able to handle the pressure of an NFL defense, but they were far from the majority. With 5 years of college experience and his success in the SEC, which is a breeding ground for NFL talent, his readiness for the pro level should have never been in question. Aside from the reasonable concerns about his body frame and tendency to take too many big hits, he possessed a rare blend of playmaking talent and command from the pocket entering the draft. He was accurate in college and worked with good anticipation while navigating through his progressions. As we saw against pressure brought by the New York Giants, Daniels was 9 for 9, for 140 yards, with a quarterback rating of 118. The play to wide receiver Noah Brown exemplified his cool under pressure. The pocket was holding fairly well on 2nd down and 10 yards to go with the game tied inside of 2 minutes. Daniels stepped up into the pocket, holding the safety to the outside he threw a strike to Brown as he broke into his route for a 34 yard gain. The season is still young and teams will begin to adjust to Daniels so progression and adjustments in his game will be very important going forward.

Kicking Perfection

Setting a franchise record for most field goals in a game, with 7, Austin Seibert was unemployed kicking field goals in his backyard between pine trees a few weeks ago. The carousel of kickers this offseason was frustrating, but when the time came when the offense struggled to score, Seibert’s signing could not have been timed any better. With a career 82.5% kicking success rate, his best year came in 2019, in which he made  25 of 29 field goal attempts, which was 86.2%, with a long of 53 yards. Since his 2019 season, Seibert has played on 3 different teams making 20 of 27 attempts, 74.1%, and has been nearly perfect on extra point attempts, converting 26 of 27. Going back even further, during his 4 years in Oklahoma, he had a career 79.7% field goal success rate. So while this 7 for 7 performance is exciting, understand he’s had a sub 80% success rate on field goals most of his career. 

From some perspective, there are some examples of reliable NFL kickers who had to work through some early-on consistency issues. Adam Vinatieri had a sub 80% success in 3 of his first 4 seasons with year two being his best season, during which he converted 86.2% of his attempts. Matt Stover had a success rate of 72.5% in his first three seasons until making 92.9% of his attempts in year four. There are a few examples to use to keep up hope of what Austin Seibert could become, but it is more of a long shot he becomes the answer going forward; that having been said, this past performance was a sight for sore eyes that’s for sure.

Beyond the Team Observation: Lesson Around Bryce Young

This week the Carolina Panthers benched quarterback and former #1 overall pick Bryce Young for journeyman Andy Dalton, which came as a surprise to many. Young’s numbers have not been impressive – he completed 59.3% of his passes while throwing 13 interceptions to just 11 touchdowns. However, let’s understand the full story. At 5’10” and 204 lbs, Young was already behind the 8-ball in terms of potential success, even though he had the necessary arm talent you’d want from a franchise quarterback. What are some of the underlying issues?

For one, he is playing in an organization and for owner, David Tepper, who many fans label the next Dan Snyder without the off-field scandals. Tepper’s meddling and impatience has shown in moving from one head coach, Matt Rhule, to another, Dave Canales, within one year. We in Washington know how such impulsive and toxic ownership can effecdt the team and locker room all too well. Then, to compound that instability, Young is also on his 3rd offensive coordinator in 2 years. The investment they made with the Chicago Bears in a trade to position for Young should have warranted a far better direction by the front office.

While the Bears continue to build around Caleb Williams, and still have the Panthers 2025 second round pick, the Panthers are facing a critical part of Young’s career. Coming off a 2023 season giving up a sack rate 9.98%, ranked 30th, they are off to a bad start this season with a sack rate of 9.52%, ranked 25th. The offensive line is suspect plus his top wide receiver, Diontae Johnson, is often injured. Therunning game averages only 3.9 yards per attempt. The Panthers have put together a list of “What Not to Do” when investing in drafting a young quarterback, as they did. David Tepper is simply that kid in class who cheats off the wrong student which, in this case, is following Dan Snyder’s organizational playbook.

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