Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Should There Be Concern?

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November 20, 2024

by David Earl

Initial Reactions

While this poll gauges like .0001% of the fan base, the posts I’ve read certainly reflect a level of patience for the direction of this team by the fanbase, while also showing some frustrations this season. Whether it’s the 7-2 start or the early mentions of Jayden Daniels being in the MVP race, the common theme around Washington outside the area was they had arrived. Washington was being looked at as a Super Bowl contender at one point, only being placed behind the Detroit Lions as the best team in the NFC until last Thursday against the Philadelphia Eagles. A second consecutive loss to Super Bowl caliber teams has caused the narrative to begin to change. Washington went from being the favorite to win the division to currently being slotted into the final Wild Card position. The conversation shifted from Daniels being to the odds-on favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award to now including quarterback Bo Nix in the conversation.  Kliff Kingsbury‘s offensive scheme went from being labeled as brilliant to now having fans start to wonder whether defenses have started to figure it out. This team is caught up in a whirlwind of reactions ranging from positivity to as bad as questioning whether Daniels is truly the answer at quarterback. Before I dive into the dynamic of the issues with this team, let’s see some of your top reactions.

 

Is Jayden Daniels and the offense a concern?

In the first 6 games before Jayden Daniels’ rib injury, he and the offense were as prolific as any offense in the league. Let’s open with the idea that this offense was never tested once during this stretch, which is not entirely accurate. Heading into their week 5 matchup against the Cleveland Browns, they faced a defense that had allowed 5.0 yards per play, ranked 8th at the time of the season. Washington took advantage of a poor run defense in Cleveland, which allowed 4.6 yards per carry average rushing for a total of 215 yards rushing in 34 attempts. It was not the best of games for Daniels, who completed 50% of his passes, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception, for an 85.1 quarterback rating. The Browns had allowed 5.0 yards per play, whereas Washington’s total offense averaged 6.7 yards per play.

The following week, in a loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Washington’s offensive output was simply flipped in terms of production, with Daniels finishing with a quarterback rating of 114.7 by completing 76.9% of his passes, with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions. The run game, averaging 2.9 yards per attempt, was limited as a result of one of the best-run defenses at that point of the season, which allowed just 3.1 yards per attempt. These are the best examples of Kliff Kingsbury calling a game to effectively exploit their opponent’s weakness. It’s not to say they had a tough schedule, as their only win came against one team that is currently above .500 today are the Arizona Cardinals, which have a 6-4 record. The point here is the offense did face some degree of challenge and responded very well.

I will break down the offense as a whole to this point before the rib injury as compared to what we have seen since. In the weeks leading into the Carolina Panthers game, Washington’s offense was top 5 in many categories, as Daniels began to make his case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. They were averaging 384.1 yards per game, 6.2 yards per play, and a team passer rating of 108.9, all ranked 4th among the league during this period. Washington was the 3rd best rushing team in the NFL, averaging 165.4 yards per game and 5.2 yards per attempt. While they ranked 10th in yards per completion averaging 10.5, they had the best completion percentage in the entire league, at 75.26%. The passing game did incorporate a quick passing game utilizing short routes and screen passes, but Daniels was still successfully competing in intermediate passes. I’ll have ,ore on him later.

Since the rib injury, specifically the last 3 games, Washington’s offense has taken a significant dip in production. Where the previous offensive categories were ranked among the top 5 except for yards per completion, which was ranked 10th, the only category over the last 3 weeks ranked in the top 20 is yards per completion at 10.4, ranked 17th in the league. The last few weeks saw the total yards per game average drop by 96.1 yards to 288, resulting in a 1.5 yards per play average drop down to 4.7. The running game went from one of the best in the league to being ranked 28th in yards per attempt at 3.4 average per attempt. That is a 1.8 yards per attempt drop. The loss of Brian Robinson Jr certainly affects this fall. While the passing yards per attempt remained relatively stable, the team’s completion percentage and quarterback rating have also had alarming drops. Washington’s completion percentage dropped a total of 13.9% from 75.26% to 61.36%, while the quarterback rating dropped well under 100, settling at an 88.4 rating average.

What role has the offensive line and wide receiver group played in all this? StatHead has some numbers. The offensive line has improved steadily over the season, being ranked near dead last in allowing 1.9 seconds time in the pocket to now allowing 2.4 seconds, ranked 9th in the NFL. They have been blitzed the second most in the league at 110 resulting in the quarter being forced to hurry his passes 20 times off of 65 recorded pressures. This leads to a 30th-ranked pressure rate of 16.6%; however, Daniels has also helped aid moments, as the pressures in part led to a league-leading 48 scrambles. Not all of these scrambles were a direct result of the pressure too, as Daniels was able to take advantage of open running lanes especially when the coverage was tight downfield. As far as the wide receivers go, they have not produced a great catch rate, dropping 4.9% of their targets, with Washington being ranked 17th in the league. While Daniels has had his fair share of inaccurate passes, he has one of the lowest bad throw percentages, at 15.6%, while having one of the league’s top passes-on-target rates, 81.2% for the season.

As for Daniels’ performance over the last 4 games has been a far cry in production and consistency compared to the first 6 starts prior to his rib injury in week 7. His completion percentage dropped from 75.6% to 59.9% in these last 4 weeks, with his overall quarterback rating dropping 17.3 points from 105.7 to 88.4 during the last 3 games. On a positive note, Daniels’ touchdown percentage has remained basically the same, dropping from 3.57% to 3.17% these last 4 games.  He’s had a slightly lower interception percentage in this recent stretch of games, .79% compared to 1.19% in his first 6 starts. His 6.35% sack percentage is an improvement of two percentage points from his first 6 starts, which was 8.93% before these last 4 games.

If the statements are true and his ribs no longer bother him then, Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury need to isolate the problem of his regression in some parts of his performance. Of course, there are factors such as the fact that he’s a rookie who still has to adjust to the NFL’s longer season as compared to his college career. There is also a mental aspect Daniels may have to overcome after the injury plus losing some rhythm in the offense due to having to take some time off for recovery.

Even with that said, Daniels’s regression is still notable, but it is also fixable. He continues to protect the ball from turnovers and he continues to develop better awareness for the oncoming pass rush. Both are core fundamentals that should see consistent growth and improvement. As fans, we have to remember Daniels is a rookie and this roster was never looked upon as a playoff team. Daniels’ presence has not only changed that narrative but his quick success began to foster greater hopes for this season than we should have had to begin with anyway. Being frustrated is understandable but remain patient and allow Daniels and this team to continue to grow.

Should there also be some skepticism of Kliff Kingsbury, which I spoke about here? There was criticism of him late in the season when defenses caught up to him, about which  Warren Sharpe speaks in more detail, referenced below. Mark Bullock also has his reasoning for why this may be an overreaction as well. You can listen to his breakdown in the link below. Either way, Kingsbury needs to get this offense back on track and shake the narrative about him from the past. What better time than this week versus a rare Dallas Cowboys team that is just not a good football team.

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