Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Is Kliff Kingsbury’s Play Calling a Concern?

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November 29, 2024

by David Earl

Kliff Kingsbury‘s Offensive Issues Continue

The talk now has revolved around Kliff Kingsbury and whether his offensive playcalling is the overall issue with the recent performance of Washington’s offense.  As referenced in the post above, Bill Barnwell brings an interesting perspective. One point he speaks about is the fact that college teams schedule opponents who are overmatched to go with a few powerhouse opponents. He mentions that when Kingbury coached in college, he was 13-17 in the first half of the season playing Big 12 teams, averaging 35.9 points per game, but was 6-18 in the second half of the season averaging 32.4 points per game against Big 12 teams. This is in the totality of his college coaching career for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Barnwell’s column covers more details, but let’s dive just a little deeper. The following breakdown will exclude game situations, injuries, and other factors that would affect a game outcome, so it’s more of a surface look at Kingsbury’s overall performance as offensive coordinator and Head Coach.

Before becoming head coach for Texas Tech he coordinated the offense for Texas A&M in the 2012 season. They finished the season at 11-2, averaging 44.5 points per game with a 3.2 positive points per game average increase when comparing the first half of the season to the last half. They averaged 43 points per game while compiling a 5-1 record, then finished the season at 6-1 averaging 46.2 points per game. That season included a win over top-ranked Alabama 29-24 and a win over 12th-ranked Oklahoma 41-13 in the Cotton Bowl. So, we see Kingsbury’s offense and the results when supported by a good defense allowing 21.8 points per game which is important to remember going forward.

As head coach for Texas Tech, Kingsbury finished with a 35-40 record with one Bowl win against Arizona State in the 2013 Holiday Bowl. During this 6 year run with the Red Raiders, his offenses were certainly perplexing in performance. In all but one season, his offense regressed to negative points per game differential when comparing the first and second half of the seasons. His worst season in this regard came in 2017, in which they had a -19.3 points per game differential, with a 3-3 record and averaging 48.8 in the first 6 games, but with a 2-4 record and a 29.5 average in the final 6 games. What compounded this drop in production was the fact the Red Raiders defense allowed 32.2 points per game. During this 6 game stretch, the defense allowed 42 points to Kansas and 38 points to South Florida, while the offense scored 35 and 34 points respectively. That said, it wasn’t all the defense’s fault either, as they held 11th-ranked Texas Christian to 27 points, which was under their 2017 season average of 33.9 points per game. Kingsbury’s offense managed 3 points against a defense, allowing 19 points per game average.

Speaking about the defense for the Texas Tech Raiders, they offered little support to the offense during this time. In the 2014 season, they allowed 41.3 points per game, while the offense averaged 30.5 points per game, which led to a 4-8 record. That season including a loss to 10th-ranked Texas Christian in which TCU scored 82 points in a blowout. In addition, the Red Raiders’ 46-point performance against 5th-ranked Baylor was not enough, as the defense allowed 48 points. The following season was not much better, as Kingsbury’s offense averaged 45.1 points per game alongside a defense allowing 43.6 points per game. So when his offense had a negative point differential per game average in the second half of the season of 14.1 points, they didn’t have a competitive chance with the play of their defense. In fact, during that stretch, the defense allowed 63 points, 70 points, and 56 points, making it difficult for any offense especially their offense during this portion of the season.

Looking at Kingsbury’s NFL career with the Arizona Cardinals, there was one season he had a double-digit negative points per game differential. In 2022, which was his final season, the Cardinals were 4-13 and averaged 30.6 points per game in the first 8 games while dropping to 17.6 points per game in the final 9 games. Their defense was consistent all season, allowing approximately 26 points per game. Thus, with their inability to score points in the last 9 games coupled with a very poor defense, Kingsbury didn’t stand a chance to save his job.

Looking at his first 3 seasons as the Cardinals’ head coach, Kingsbury still showed mostly regression over the second half of each season. Years two and three had a touchdown or more negative differential, -7.3 and -8, respectively, accompanied by a defense that allowed just under 23 points per game average in those seasons. In 2021, his -8 point per game in regressed the second half of the season, and was matched by a defense that allowed 17.3 points per game in the first 8 games and 25.3 points in the second half. Even though this wound up being Kingsbury’s best season, at 11-6, the Cardinals finished with a 2-6 record after a 7-1 start. So what does this all mean or show today heading down the final stretch of the 2024 season?

Washington’s went 7-2 in the first half of the season and were one of the top offenses in the league, averaging 29.2 points per game while the defense allowed 21 points per game. They were ranked 3rd in yards per play, at 6.2, with a balanced attack in which they threw the ball 48.14% of the time. In these last 3 weeks, however, they had a -5.5 point differential, dropping to 23.7 points per game, while the defense allowed 29.3 points per game. Also, during this stretch the offense was more pass-oriented, throwing 60.32% of the time.

Of course, there is a cause and effect here, with the recent injury to Brian Robinson Jr resulting in a weaker run game plus Jayden Daniels‘ recovery from his rib injury. We can’t ignore the comparison of regression of Kliff Kingsbury’s offenses in the past to what we are witnessing today, but there is a silver lining. His time with Texas A&M showed when the team is complete and balanced, his system can thrive throughout a full season. His offense had a positive point differential that year, 3.2 averaging 46.2 points per year after averaging 43 the first six games.

Unfortunately, those answers are not in place on this Washington roster, but that does not mean we should panic. It is clear that beyond Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels, defenses have nothing to fear when game planning against this offense. Mark Bullock does a great job breaking down Kingsbury’s scheme further, offering more optimism that this can work with him as offensive coordinator.  As I see it, though, that may not be true this season. They need a running back that can be a home run threat at any time he touches the ball, such as in the Detroit Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs. The Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty, who will be in next year’s draft, could be a similar player. As far as wide receiver free agents to be, the Cincinnati Bengals’ Tee Higgins would be a perfect long-term fit opposite McLaurin. They are answers for the 2025 season, so current rookies wide receiver Luke McCaffrey and tight end Ben Sinnott should become more of a focal point going forward to see if they can add some offensive spark.

So, relax and be patient, as that 7-2 start was an overachievement as compared what many expected entering this season. The offense has become relatively easy to defend, and Jayden Daniels has certainly started to show his rookie side too. Frustration is one thing, but let’s refrain from the overreaction and allow Adam Peters to understand these weaknesses and address them in year 2 of his plan. Remember, under first year Head Coach Dan Campbell, the Detroit Lions were 3-13-1, but are now regarded as one of the best teams in the NFL. While it is 100% ok to be frustrated, as I admittedly am, just try ti have some patience.

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