Washington Playoff Road: Breaking Down the Wild Card Race

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December 13, 2024

by David Earl

The Wildcard Playoff Race

It’s the season’s final four weeks, and Washington is in the driver’s seat for the final Wild Card playoff position. The least complicated path is to win all four remaining games and lock up the final playoff position, but that is not exactly realistic. Currently, the Los  Angeles Rams pose the biggest threat, as they have a 7-6 record and three of their four remaining games are against divisional opponents. The Arizona Cardinals are one of three teams.  They have a 6-7 record and are a team Washington beat in week 4; thus, Washington owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Atlanta Falcons, who Washington plays in 3 weeks, and the San Francisco 49ers are the other 6-7 teams positioning for the playoffs. The two final teams in contention, the New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys, are both 5-9 and need a lot of help. A win this week for Washington will eliminate the Saints. The Cowboys have two very difficult games remaining before finishing the season against Washington. Let’s dive deeper into the playoff picture for Washington.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Rams (7-6):

  • Since they have not played against each other, the first tiebreaker would be  conference winning percentage. Washington holds a 1-game advantage at a 5-3 conference record as compared to the Rams’ 4-5 record. Washington has 4 remaining conference games, whereas the Rams only have 3 games. In the event of a tie, the common opponent record is the next tiebreaker.
  • Washington owns the edge over common opponents, at 2-1 with the Saints left to play, while the Rams have at a 1-3 record. A loss against the Saints this week would put Washington at 2-2 in the common opponent record.
  • A Washington win against the Saints would give them 6 conference wins, and in that situation, the Rams would be forced to finish the season winning near-perfect with only 3 conference games remaining. Since the Rams lost the head-to-head matchup in week 5 against the Packers, their most likely path into the playoffs is winning the division, barring a collapse of the aforementioned teams. 3 of the Rams; remaining 4 games are against divisional opponents, so the road for them will be difficult.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Falcons (6-7):

  • The Falcons’ 6-3 conference record makes their week 17 matchup potentially very crucial. A head-to-head win by Washington would almost certainly eliminate the Falcons from the Wild Card race. In the event Washington loses the 2 games before their week 17 matchup and the game ends in a tie, the Falcons’ best chance would be to finish 3-0-1 thus eliminating Washington with the better overall conference record.
  • In seven common opponents, the Falcons have 1 loss compared the Washington’s 4 losses, with the Falcons still yet to play the New York Giants.
  • If Washington and the Falcons finish the week 17 game in a tie and their overall record is identical after week 18 the Falcons own the tiebreaker in the common opponent’s record. A Falcons loss in week 17 against Washington coupled with 1 Green Bay Packer win down the stretch will mean that the Falcons will be eliminated. The Falcons must win week 17, Washington winning no more than 1 game down the stretch, and finish the season no worse than 2-2 or 3-1 if Washington does win 1 more game. The Falcons’ only hope, if eliminated from the Wild Card race, is to beat out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the division title.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Cardinals (6-7):

  • Washington owns the head-to-head matchup over the Cardinals with a win; thus, conference record nor the common opponent tiebreaker will not apply.
  • The best-case scenario for the Cardinals would be Washington losing 3 of their final 4 games while they finish 4-0 down the stretch. Of course, if Washington loses their last 4 games the Cardinals can afford to finish 3-1 in their final 4 games. If the Cardinals lose this weekend and Washington wins, then they are eliminated from the Wild Card playoff race because the Packers own head-to-head matchup with the Cardinals. Their best hope in this scenario, like the Falcons, is to win the division.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the 49ers (6-7):

  • Similar to the Falcons, the conference tiebreaker currently favors Washington because they have 1 win more than the 49ers.
  • The 49ers own the common opponent tiebreaker, with a 3-1 record compared to Washington’s 2-2 record. For the 49ers to force this situation, Washington would have to win no more than 2 of their remaining 4 games while finish 4-0 in their remaining games. The best-case scenario would be Washington ending the season winless or 1-3 as finishing 4-0 seems very unlikely for the 49ers.
  • If Washington wins 2 of the remaining 4 games and the Packers win one game, it will eliminate the 49ers from the wild-card playoff race. At that point, winning the division will be their only path then to making the playoffs.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Saints (5-8):

  • Very simply, a Washington win this weekend means that the Saints will be eliminated from the playoffs at 9 losses. Being a head-to-head matchup, the only way the common opponent tiebreaker comes into effect would be if this game results in a tie. Plus, the Saints would need Washington to finish 0-3 to give both teams an 8-8-1 record
  • If the Saints beat Washington they will still need help. They will need Washington to do no better than 1 win in their final 3 games while gaining 1 additional win down the stretch than Washington.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Cowboys (5-8):

  • Since the Cowboys beat Washington in week 12 and own a better divisional record at 3-1 over Washington’s 2-2 record, they currently hold the head-to-head matchup and divisional record tiebreakers. They play each other in week 18, which could play out as a win and you are in a scenario, however unlikely.
  • The simplest scenario is a Cowboys loss with a Washington win over the next 4 weeks, eliminating them from the playoffs. The Packers also own the head-to-head matchup over the Cowboys. Thus the Cowboys will need to finish the season 4-0 and Washington win no more than 1 game down the stretch.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Buccaneers (7-6):

  • Tampa Bay is the current division leader, but in the event they drop out of the division lead, the Buccaneers own the head-to-head tiebreaker since they beat Washington in week 1 of the season.
  • In this scenario, in which the Buccaneers drop the division lead, that would mean they would have finished at 10 wins to tie with the Falcons. They would lose the tiebreaker with the Falcons as they lost both games to them. Washington would then have to finish with an 11-6 record to claim the 7th playoff spot from the Buccaneers.

Washington’s Wild Card Race with the Seahawks (8-5):

    • One game separates the Seahawks (8-5) and the Rams (7-6), so the reality is that the Seahawks could easily lose the division. The Rams already have a win in week 9 against the Seahawks, which places them in a position of advantage if the Seahawks drop a game before their week 18 matchup.
    • Washington has a 1 game lead in conference record so winning 3 of the next 4 games coupled with a Seahawks loss secures the 7th Wild Card position for Washington. Of course, the scenario of finishing 2-2 or 1-3 also works as long as the Seahawks match that pace as well.
    • In terms of common opponents, the Seahawks are 3-1 while Washington is 3-0 with one opponent left in the Falcons. Washington beating the Falcons would give them the common opponent edge but a loss does not necessarily hurt either. As each team’s remaining 4 games are all conference games and Washington holds a better record (5-3) versus Seahawks 4-4 record. Therefore, finishing the season tied gives the edge to Washington. The Seahawks will have to finish 1 game better than Washington in the win column to leapfrog them in the wild card race.
    • The Green Bay Packers could play the most pivotal role in this Wild Card race since they play the Seahawks this weekend. A head-to-head win for the Seahawks could position both Washington and the Seahawks to make the playoffs. The Packers own a slight common opponent edge with 5 wins and 2 more to play compared to Washington’s 4 wins and 1 more to play. Therefore, Washington will most likely need to finish one win better than the Packers, as the remaining common opponents left for them are the Saints and the Bears.

The Remaining Four Games

If they finish 4-0, then nothing else matters in terms of the playoff scenarios for Washington. As this season has proven, this route is the most unlikely. The Eagles are the toughest team left, as they have established themselves as arguably the best team in the NFC. The coming debut of Marshon Lattimore will potentially change the entire dynamic of Washington’s defense, including the Eagles matchup in 2 weeks as well. As there may be a chance against the Eagles, this week’s game against the Saints should net a positive outcome. Quarterback Derek Carr and wide reciever Chris Olave are out, leaving running back Alvin Kamara as the only offensive threat to be concerned about entering this matchup. The Falcons, who Washington faces in 3 weeks, are dealing with quarterback issues, so rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. could get the start. Behind a rookie quarterback plus a terrible pass defense allowing an average quarterback rating per game of 105 makes for an ideal situation for Washington. Atlanta’s run defense is solid, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, but that may not be enough. In week 18, the Cowboys could be primed and motivated to play spoiler but, as their season may very well be over by this game, but Washington losing to them at home in a heartbreaker should be motivation for them.

Personally, I think this schedule sets up well for Washington to go no worse than 3-1 and secure a playoff spot. The only concern they’ll have is the Rams and Seahawks scenario laid out above. Washington controls their destiny and the pathway laid out down the stretch is certainly not a cakewalk, but it is very doable.

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