2025 NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview
January 9, 2025
by David Earl and Steve Thomas
Welcome to the 2025 Wildcard Playoffs! This is certainly unfamiliar territory for Washington fans. It’s a 12-5 season with a rookie quarterback poised to win the Rookie of the Year award and a player who gives the fans hope both in this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in the future. Aside from Washington, there are matchups of intrigue this weekend that could very well result in a couple of upsets. The Denver Broncos may be the 7th seed in the AFC but they also have a fantastic rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, as well as one of the league’s best defenses. Will that be enough to upset the Buffalo Bills who continue to have heartbreak in the postseason? Do the Green Bay Packers have enough to unseat one of the more balanced and dynamic teams in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles? Jalen Hurts and his recovery plus lack of playing time over the last three weeks could be a big factor in this game. Then, there is the Minnesota Vikings at the Los Angeles Rams, which is a prime reason that winning the division should not automatically guarantee a home playoff game. So let’s get into these matchups, their start times and where to watch what should be a very good Wildcard weekend.
Since Washington is in the thick of this year’s playoff race, we went back to an old format for this preview; namely, Steve went back to his long, and insane, statistical analysis of each playoff team, with a few tweaks from prior years. We got away from this deep dive in the past few seasons, but it felt right this year considering Washington’s resurgence.
For those of you who haven’t read our playoff previews from years past, we first provide the basics of the schedule and an overview of each of the four wildcard games. Beyond that, in order to give you a somewhat objective picture of each team’s playoff chances (rather than the useless and ubiquitous subjective “power rankings”), we developed a system wherein we list objective rankings for each of the fourteen playoff teams in a number of different important offensive and defensive statistics, as compared to just the playoff teams, meaning that, on both offense and defense, we’ve listed the 1 through 14 rankings for each team for a number of different categories, all of which are listed at the top of each chart. Then, we averaged all of the offensive and defensive statistics to provide one number for each team – the lower the overall number, the better. We’ve sorted each chart by overall rank order, from lowest ranking (meaning, best) to highest ranking (meaning, worst). This method doesn’t necessarily show the “best” team, or serve as a prediction, per se, but it demonstrates which teams are the most complete and capable based on their regular season statistical results. Usually, one or two teams really stick out – which is the case again this year – and these rankings normally get pretty close to how the games actually turn out. Hopefully, the results will give you an idea of which teams are most primed and ready to face off for the Super Bowl title.
Isn’t this better than a simple list of power rankings? I hope so. It’s long, but please bear with us to the end if you can, even though it’s yet another case of The Hog Sty (really, just Steve) drowning you in numbers. The charts are big and might be hard to read, depending on what system you’re using. Sorry; blame our webmaster, Alex, for that.
If this is all way too much for you and you want the bottom line, we totally understand. If that’s you, just first glance at the schedule, then read Dave’s Wild Card Matchup Preview, and skip down to the “Rankings Summary” section at the bottom of the page.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15 – 2; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Buffalo Bills (13 – 4; 1st, AFC East)
- Baltimore Ravens (12 – 5; 1st, AFC North)
- Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC West)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
- Denver Broncos (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC West)
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15 – 2; 1st, NFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 – 7; 1st, NFC South)
- Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 1st, NFC West)
- Minnesota Vikings (14 – 3; 2nd, NFC North)
- Washington (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
- Green Bay Packers (11 – 6; 3rd, NFC North)
2025 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Wild Card Weekend
Saturday, Jan. 11
4:30 p.m. ET – Los Angeles Chargers (#5) at Houston Texans (#4) (CBS, Paramount+)
8:00 p.m. ET – Pittsburgh Steelers (#6) at Baltimore Ravens (#3) (Amazon Prime)
Sunday, Jan. 12
1:00 p.m. ET – Denver Broncos (#7) at Buffalo Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount+)
4:30 p.m. ET – Green Bay Packers (#7) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2) (FOX)
8:00 p.m. ET – Washington (#6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#3) (NBC, Peacock)
Monday, Jan. 13
8:00 p.m. ET – Minnesota Vikings (#5) at Los Angeles Rams (#4) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)
Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 18
TBD vs TBD
TBD vs TBD
Sunday, Jan. 19
TBD vs TBD
TBD vs TBD
Championship Weekend
Sunday, Jan. 26
NFC (FOX)
AFC (CBS)
Super Bowl LVIII
Sunday, Feb. 9
6:30 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana (FOX)
Halftime Show – yet another washed up rapper different because the NFL doesn’t understand that many people do want something besides R&B or rap Kendrick Lamar
DAVE’S WILD CARD MATCHUP PREVIEW
LA Chargers (#5) at Houston Texans (#4)
Early line: LA Chargers -3.0 (Total Points 42.5)
Dave’s prediction: The first aspect of this matchup that stands out is the scoring production offensively versus their respective defenses. For the season they are relatively close, with the Chargers averaging 23.6 points per game to the Texans 21.9 points per game but the last three weeks of the season speaks to a much greater disparity. Over the last 3 weeks the Chargers averaged 36 points per game to the Texans 14.7. Looking at their red zone efficiency in scoring touchdowns alone the Texans have been highly inefficient scoring touchdowns on 22.22% of their red zone trips over the last three weeks while the Chargers remained consistent over the season remaining approximately 56% success rate. The Texans do have a good run defense, ranked 11th in the league, allowing 4.3 yards per carry; however, their pass defense has suffered over the last three weeks allowing an average of 65.47% completion and a 106.7 quarterback rating.
I see a close game early on but the Chargers pulling away late to win 26-17.
Pittsburg Steelers (#6) at Baltimore Ravens (#3)
Early line: Baltimore Ravens -9.5 (Total Points 43.5)
Dave’s prediction: These are division rivals who know each other very well, so the game early on should be close. This familiarity will be what keeps the Steelers in this game heading into the second quarter and maybe halftime. The Steelers finished the season ranked 5th in run defense, allowing an average of 4.1 yards per rush overall and 4.5 yards per rush the final 3 weeks of the season, compared to the Ravens consistent run defense that led the league allowing 3.6 yards per rush. The biggest disparity between the two defenses comes in the passing game. Prior to the final three weeks of the season the Ravens secondary had allowed an average quarterback rating of 95.2, whereas the allowed an average quarterback rating of just 69 over the final three weeks of the season. The normally reliable Steelers secondary finished having allowing a 110.5 rating over the final three weeks of the season. Over the final three weeks quarterback Lamar Jackson finished with ratings of 115.4, 143.9, and 92.8 respectively while throwing 7 touchdowns to 1 interception. The Steelers enter the playoffs losing four in a row while the Ravens won 5 of their last 6 games.
Ravens win 34-17.
Denver Broncos (#7) at Buffalo Bills (#2)
Early line: Buffalo Bills -8.0 (Total Points 46.5)
Dave’s prediction: This game has the formula for a major first round upset, as Denver fields one of the better defenses in the NFL. They rank 3rd in allowing 18.3 points per game and have one of the best red zone defenses allowing 46.94% of all red zone trips being converted into touchdowns. They also rank second in average yards per play (4.9) and yards per rush (3.9). They also have the highest rated pass rush finishing the season with a 9.42% sack percentage. Yes, the defense is certainly built for the playoffs, but the Bills offense led by duel threat quarterback Josh Allen will ultimately be too much for this Broncos defense. The Bills are the second-best scoring offense,, averaging 30.9 points per game with a great red zone efficiency rate scoring touchdowns at a rate of 71.64% of the trips into the red zone. Although rookie quarterback Bo Nix finished the season strong, the playoff experience of the Bills and playing at home will reign supreme in this matchup.
The Bills win 23-20 in a very tight game down the stretch.
Green Bay Packers (#7) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2)
Early line: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (Total Points 45.5)
Dave’s prediction: Aside from the Packers having the 5th hardest schedule versus the Eagles 28th ranked schedule, this Eagles team performance truly supersedes their strength of schedule. They have the second-best defense in allowing 17.8 points per game and have been one of the top pass coverage teams allowing an 82.5 quarterback rating per game. They have a very efficient red zone defense allowing 50% of the trips into the red zone result into a touchdown ranking them 5th in the league. That said, the Packers field one of the best pass and run blocking offensive lines in the NFL; plus, their defense allowed a respectable 19.9 points per game average and an average of 17 per game over that last three games of the season. The Packers offensive line ranks 3rd with a 4.39% sack percentage and ranked 6th with 4.7 yards per rush attempt. This game will truly come down to the battle in the trenches. With Jalen Hurts coming back after missing essentially 3 games and the pressure the Packers can apply to the quarterback. This is my upset pick of the weekend.
The Packers win 26-23.
Washington Commanders (#6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#3)
Early line: Tamp Bay Buccaneers -3.0 (Total Points 50.5)
Dave’s prediction: The average points scored per game by each offense is similar, with Washington averaging 28.5 and the Buccaneers averaging 29.5 per game. Their offenses are very efficient in the red zone, as both convert over 60% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. The teams match up well across the board, but the one glaring difference in this game is the run game. Both teams’ offenses rank top 5 in the league in rushing yards per attempt but defensively there is a big difference. Washington has been one of the worst teams in the league defensively, allowing 4.8 yards per attempt while the Buccaneers rank 10th at 4.3 yards per attempt and 2.6 yards per attempt over the last 3 games. This should be a huge advantage for the Buccaneers, but Washington was able to overcome this deficiency in route to a 12-win regular season. The return of cornerback Marshon Lattimore could help somewhat in their run defense allowing safety Jeremy Chinn to play more in the box. This should be one of the better games this weekend as Washington edges the Buccaneers 33-28.
Minnesota Vikings (#5) at LA Rams (#4)
Early line: Minnesota Vikings -1.0 (Total Points 47.5)
Dave’s prediction: This game boils down to the Vikings’ ability to stop the run. They are ranked 4th, allowing 4.1 yards per carry, whereas the Rams are the worst run offense in the league, having averaged only 3.9 yards per carry. Even though the Rams have a very good pass blocking offensive line, ranking 6th with a 5.25% sack percentage, they have only been about league average with an overall 93.7 passer rating and will face the second-best defense against the pass, as the Vikings allowed an average 82.4 passer rating against. The Vikings should be able to move the ball efficiently against a one-dimensional team like the Rams.
The Vikings win 34-20.
ANALYSIS OF SCHEDULE & WIN-LOSS RECORDS
The records for each of the playoff teams on the season and their current win – loss streak are:
| # gms plyd against winning tms | # gms won against winning tms | Road Wins | Streak | Opp win % rank | |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 10 | 8 | 7 | L1 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions (15-2, #1) | 9 | 7 | 8 | W3 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills (13-4, #2) | 6 | 3 | 5 | L1 | 12 |
| Philadelphia (14-3, #2) | 7 | 5 | 6 | W2 | 13 |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 10 | 7 | 6 | W4 | 2 |
| Tampa Bay (10-7, #3) | 7 | 4 | 5 | W2 | 7 |
| Houston Texans (10-7, #4) | 6 | 1 | 5 | W1 | 9 |
| LA Rams (10-7, #4) | 7 | 3 | 5 | W1 | 4 |
| LA Chargers (11-6, #5) | 7 | 2 | 6 | W3 | 12 |
| Minnesota (14-3, #5) | 7 | 4 | 6 | L1 | 10 |
| Pittsburgh (10-7, #6) | 7 | 4 | 5 | L4 | 7 |
| Washington (12-5, #6) | 5 | 1 | 5 | W5 | 14 |
| Denver Broncos (10-7, #7) | 8 | 2 | 4 | W1 | 7 |
| Green Bay (11-6, #7) | 8 | 3 | 5 | L2 | 1 |
The last column, labeled “opponent’s winning percentage rank”, shows which teams faced opponents with the highest combined winning percentages. The Packers were ranked #1, meaning, their opponents had the highest combined winning percentage, whereas Washington #14, i.e. last, meaning they played the easiest schedule of any playoff team. The lower the ranking number, the better.
What stands out in this data is that the Lions and the Ravens were both ranked in the top three in their conference and played very hard schedules, which suggests that those two teams may be well prepared for the playoffs. Similarly, while the Packers were the 7th seed in the NFC, they also played the toughest schedule of any playoff teams, which might explain their seeding; however, they only defeated 3 of the 8 teams with winning records that they faced.
As to Washington, the fact that they only played 5 teams with winning records, only defeated 1, and had the overall easiest schedule may be an indicator that they could have a tough time in the playoffs.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Offense
The following chart shows the offensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole. The lowest ranking means that team had the best stats in that particular category.
A couple of notes – first, the label “wPts” stands for “weighted points”. We increased the ranking of the total points scored category, because ultimately points are what win games. Second, you’ll see that the final column repeats the strength of schedule rankings shown above. We did not attempt to impose a statistical weighting to the rankings in each category for strength of schedule. Instead, the rankings are their in order to allow you to make your own judgments as to the importance and relevance of the raw statistical rankings.
| NFL Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rtg | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2.615 | 1 | 2 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2.923 | 2 | 3 |
| Tampa (10-7, #3) | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3.308 | 3 | 7 |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6.000 | 4 | 13 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 6.154 | 5 | 12 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6.231 | 6 | 14 |
| Packers (11-6, #7) | 7 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 6.692 | 7 | 1 |
| Vikings (14-3, #5) | 8 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8.462 | 8 | 10 |
| Chargers (11-6, #5) | 10 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9.385 | 9 | 12 |
| Denver (10-7, #7) | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 9.462 | 10 | 7 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 9.615 | 11 | 8 |
| Steelers (10-7, #6) | 12 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 11.077 | 12 | 7 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 14 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11.385 | 13 | 4 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 11.692 | 14 | 9 |
What should jump off the page at you is that the two teams that are ranked first and second in overall statistical offensive production, Baltimore and Detroit, also had two of the most difficult schedules in the NFL. As a result, it seems likely that they will be able to produce in the playoffs. Tampa Bay was the other team in the top tier of these rankings, albeit with a mid-tier strength of schedule.
Baltimore, in particular, is the best overall offense in the playoffs, as objectively measured. At 15 – 2, Kansas City seems like a bit of a statistical outlier considering that they had both an overall mediocre regular season schedule and are only ranked 11th in offensive production. However, statistics don’t tell all of the story – the Chiefs are the 2x defending Super Bowl champs and feature a Hall of Famer at quarterback. The 2024 version of the Chiefs seemed to find ugly ways to win this season, regardless of the numbers, and it seems likely that this will continue. As for Washington, their 6th place overall ranking seems fair considering what we saw this year – Washington blew out bad teams and mostly struggled against the few good teams that they played. Their mid-tier rankings reflect these highs and low.
The three bottom tier offensive teams are clearly Pittsburgh, the Rams, and Houston, so don’t expect any of them to excel.
Defense
The following chart shows the defensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole:
NFL Playoff teams defensive rankings
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Denver (10-7, #7) | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 3.933 | 1 | 7 |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4.067 | 2 | 13 |
| Chargers (11-6, #5) | 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5.267 | 3 | 12 |
| Minnesota (14-3, #5) | 5 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 5.667 | 4 | 10 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 6.533 | 5 | 9 |
| Green Bay (11-6, #7) | 6 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 6.800 | 6 | 1 |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 9 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 7.533 | 7 | 2 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 7.600 | 10 | 8 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 7.600 | 10 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh (10-7, #6) | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 7.600 | 10 | 7 |
| Tampa (10-7, #3) | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10.267 | 11 | 7 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10.400 | 12 | 14 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 10.600 | 13 | 12 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 13 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 11.133 | 14 | 4 |
In terms of defense, you can see that Denver and Philadelphia were the top-tier of all of the playoff teams, whereas Washington, Buffalo, and the Rams were the lowest-ranked franchises by a significant margin. Washington’s terrible rush defense brought their overall rankings down by a significant margin.
Rankings summary
This chart shows the combined offensive and defensive rankings for each of the 14 playoff teams, along with the average of both rankings and the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings for each team, sorted by lowest – i.e., best – combined ranking:
NFL Playoff teams average rankings
| Offense | Defense | Ave | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | Opp win % | ||||
| Philly (14-3, #2) | 6.000 | 4.067 | 5.034 | 1 | 1.933 | 13 | |||
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 2.615 | 7.533 | 5.074 | 2 | 4.918 | 2 | |||
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 2.923 | 7.600 | 5.262 | 3 | 4.677 | 3 | |||
| Denver (10-7, #7) | 9.462 | 3.933 | 6.698 | 4 | 5.529 | 7 | |||
| Packers (11-6, #7) | 6.692 | 6.800 | 6.746 | 5 | 0.108 | 1 | |||
| Tampa (10-7, #3) | 3.308 | 10.267 | 6.788 | 6 | 6.959 | 7 | |||
| Vikings (14-3, #5) | 8.462 | 5.667 | 7.065 | 7 | 2.795 | 10 | |||
| Chargers (11-6, #5) | 9.385 | 5.267 | 7.326 | 8 | 4.118 | 12 | |||
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 6.231 | 10.400 | 8.316 | 9 | 4.169 | 14 | |||
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 6.154 | 10.600 | 8.377 | 10 | 4.446 | 12 | |||
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 9.615 | 7.600 | 8.608 | 11 | 2.015 | 8 | |||
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11.692 | 6.533 | 9.113 | 12 | 5.159 | 9 | |||
| Steelers (10-7, #6) | 11.077 | 7.600 | 9.339 | 13 | 3.477 | 7 | |||
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 11.385 | 11.133 | 11.259 | 14 | 0.252 | 4 | |||
Congratulations. You made it to the end of this little (!!) exercise. Trust me, this could have been alot longer, and if I’d had more time, it would have been. There’s a reason that I haven’t gone through this exercise for the past few seasons.
What we can see is that overall, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Detroit had the best regular season statistical production of all of the playoff teams. The fact that Ravens and Lions also had two of the toughest schedules mean that, at least from a purely statistical point of view, I’d place those two teams as the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. Washington’s 9th place ranking feels about right when judging their regular season performance when compared to the other playoff teams.
What’s also clear here is that the Rams don’t belong with the rest of the group, and that jives with Dave’s prediction for the Vikings – Rams game on Monday night.