2025 NFL Divisional Round Preview
January 17, 2025
by Steve Thomas and David Earl
Can you believe it?!? Washington made it to the Divisional Round of the playoffs! If you say that you predicted this result prior to the season . . . well . . . let’s just say that we don’t believe you. The AFC went exactly as the seedings predicted, with Bills, Ravens, and Texans all winning. In the NFL, Washington was the only team to buck the trend and beat a higher-seeded team. Of course, things get exponentially harder for Washington this week, with the team having to travel north to Detroit to face the 15 – 2, top-seeded Detroit Lions. Certainly, the odds are against Jayden Daniels and company, but considering what Daniels has accomplished this year, it’s hard not to at least have some faith that they’ll somehow figure out a way to pull out a victory.
As you’ll see below, we list all of the relevant game information, preview each game, and then do an edited version of last week’s statistical deep dive into offensive and defensive rankings. The simple version of reading the rankings is that the lower the number, the better. Low = good, high = bad.
Our Divisional Round playoff preview is below.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15 – 2; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Buffalo Bills (13 – 4; 1st, AFC East)
- Baltimore Ravens (12 – 5; 1st, AFC North)
- Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC West)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
- Denver Broncos (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC West)
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15 – 2; 1st, NFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 – 7; 1st, NFC South)
- Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 1st, NFC West)
- Minnesota Vikings (14 – 3; 2nd, NFC North)
- Washington (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
- Green Bay Packers (11 – 6; 3rd, NFC North)
2025 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Divisional Round
Saturday, Jan. 18
4:30 p.m. ET – Houston Texans (#4) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1) (ESPN, ABC, ESPN2, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes)
8:00 p.m. ET – Washington (#6) at Detroit Lions (#1) (FOX, FOX Deportes)
Sunday, Jan. 19
3:00 p.m. ET p – Los Angeles Rams (#4) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2) (NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, Universo)
6:30 p.m. ET Baltimore Ravens (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#2) (CBS, Paramount+)
Championship Weekend
Sunday, Jan. 26
3:00 p.m. – NFC (FOX, FOX Deportes)
6:30 p.m. AFC (CBS, Paramount+)
Super Bowl LVIII
Sunday, Feb. 9
6:30 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana (FOX)
Halftime Show – yet another washed up rapper different because the NFL doesn’t understand that people do want something besides R&B or rap Kendrick Lamar
DAVE’S WILD CARD MATCHUP PREVIEW
Houston Texans (#4) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1)
Early line: Kansas City -8 (Total points 41.5)
Honestly, Kansas City’s passing offense has been mostly mediocre all season and has been supported by an anemic run game that’s averaged 4.0 yards per attempt. They rank 9th in completion percentage, completing 67.33% of their passes, and have an overall team 93.1 team passer rating, including a 103.6 rating in the final 3 games of the season. They face a Houston defense that is ranked 4th in yards per play allowed, at 5.1, and 11th in yards per rush allowed, at 4.3 yards per rush. Houston is a top five ranked defense in opponents completion percentage, at 58.84%, and opposing quarterbacks have earned an average passer rating of 83.7. That said, and revisiting their week 16 matchup, this game will be a close matchup down to the wire, just as Kansas City has done all year. Plus, Patrick Mahomes is too good in home playoff games, with a 12-2 record.
Dave’s prediction: Kansas City wins 23-17
Washington (#6) at Detroit Lions (#1)
Early line: Detroit -9.5 (Total points 55.5)
Offensively, the Detroit Lions lead the league by a wide margin in points scored, averaging 33.2 points per game, including an average of 35 over the last 3 games of the season. They are the 3rd most effective team in the red zone, having scored touchdowns on 69.44% of their trips inside the 20 yard line. The Lions’ the offensive line allowed a 4.81% sack rate over the last 3 games of the season. They are the only team to complete over 70% of their passes this season, and finished second in passer rating, at 112.6. To complement the passing game, the Lions also have one of the better rushing attacks, with an average of 4.7 yards per attempt. This, of course, is Washington’s major defensive weakness. While this is all a formula for a blowout, Washington will field an offense that has scored an average of 28.5 points per game, including 29.7 over the final 3 games of the season. Washington will face a Lions defense that was one of the best against the pass, having allowed a top-ranked 82 passer rating and an average of 20.1 points per game. However, the Lions are ranked 27th in average yards per play, at 5.7 yards per play. The Lions are also susceptible to the run. They allowed 4.5 yards per carry this season so this could be a perfect game for Chris Rodriquez Jr. if activated. The window of opportunity is small for Washington, but I am just not going against Jayden Daniels and his 4 quarter performance.
Dave’s prediction: Washington pulls an upset 34-31
Los Angeles Rams (#4) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2)
Early line: Philadelphia -6.5 (Total points 43.5)
The Rams’ run game was terrible this season. They averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, and their red zone offense converted only 45.45% of their trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, so they will struggle against one of the league’s best defenses. The Eagles’ defense allows the fewest yards per play, at 4.7 per play, and were second only to the Lions in opponent average passer rating, having allowed a low 82.5 passer rating against. They also have the 4th best red zone defense in the league. While that Eagle offense didn’t look great in the Wildcard round, they averaged 27.2 points per game this season and fielded one of the best running games in the NFL. The Rams have been playing well as of late and are a healthier team since their week 11 matchup with Philadelphia, but their lack of run game and poor red zone offense will not bode well on the road in a game that is expected to have a poor wintery mix of rain and snow. This will be a low-scoring game and the Eagles run game will be the difference.
Dave’s prediction: Eagles 20-13
Baltimore Ravens (#3) at Buffalo Bills (#2)
Early line: Baltimore -1 (Total points 51.5)
This looks to be the best game of the weekend, and the betting line proves this to be so. They are two of the top three scoring offenses in the league, and each defense allowed an identical 20.8 points per game for the season. Baltimore has a far more dynamic rushing attack, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt compared to Buffalo’s 4.6 yards per attempt. Both offenses have been one of the league’s best red zone offenses, with Baltimore at 74.29% and Buffalo at 68.06% of their trips inside the 20-yard line ending in touchdowns. Their defenses allow roughly the same 5.3 yards per play with near identically defensive red zone efficiency – Baltimore allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 54% of their drives into the red zone, whereas Buffalo allowed touchdowns on 56.45% of drives into thered zone. These teams are very evenly matched but I do see this ultimately coming down to the running game and Baltimore’s run game is far more dynamic.
Dave’s prediction: Baltimore wins 36-30
ANALYSIS OF SCHEDULE & WIN-LOSS RECORDS
The records for each of the playoff teams on the season and their current win – loss streak are:
| # gms plyd against winning tms | # gms won against winning tms | Road Wins | Streak | Opp win % rank | |
| Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 10 | 8 | 7 | L1 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions (15-2, #1) | 9 | 7 | 8 | W3 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills (13-4, #2) | 6 | 3 | 5 | L1 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, #2) | 7 | 5 | 6 | W2 | 13 |
| Baltimore Ravens (12-5, #3) | 10 | 7 | 6 | W4 | 2 |
| Houston Texans (10-7, #4) | 6 | 1 | 5 | W1 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams (10-7, #4) | 7 | 3 | 5 | W1 | 4 |
| Washington (12-5, #6) | 5 | 1 | 5 | W5 | 14 |
The last column, labeled “opponent’s winning percentage rank”, shows which teams faced opponents with the highest combined winning percentages. The Packers were ranked #1, meaning, their opponents had the highest combined winning percentage, whereas Washington #14, i.e. last, meaning they played the easiest schedule of any playoff team. The lower the ranking number, the better. In all of the charts in this column, the rankings are out of the original 14 playoff teams, not just the remaining 8.
What stands out in this data is that the Lions and the Ravens were both ranked in the top three in their conference and also played very hard schedules, which suggests that those two teams may be well prepared for the playoffs. In contrast, Washington clearly had the easiest schedule of all teams left in the playoffs, including only one victory over a winning team all year.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Offense
The following chart shows the offensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole. The lowest ranking means that team had the best stats in that particular category.
A couple of notes – first, the label “wPts” stands for “weighted points”. We increased the ranking of the total points scored category, because ultimately points are what win games. Second, you’ll see that the final column repeats the strength of schedule rankings shown above. We did not attempt to impose a statistical weighting to the rankings in each category for strength of schedule. Instead, the rankings are their in order to allow you to make your own judgments as to the importance and relevance of the raw statistical rankings.
| NFL Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rtg | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2.615 | 1 | 2 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2.923 | 2 | 3 |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6.000 | 4 | 13 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 6.154 | 5 | 12 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6.231 | 6 | 14 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 9.615 | 11 | 8 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 14 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11.385 | 13 | 4 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 11.692 | 14 | 9 |
What should jump off the page at you is that the two teams that are ranked first and second in overall statistical offensive production, Baltimore and Detroit, also had two of the most difficult schedules in the NFL. As a result, it seems likely that they will be able to produce in the playoffs.
Baltimore, in particular, is the best overall offense in the playoffs, as objectively measured. At 15 – 2, Kansas City seems like a bit of a statistical outlier considering that they had both an overall mediocre regular season schedule and are only ranked 11th in offensive production. However, statistics don’t tell all of the story – the Chiefs are the 2x defending Super Bowl champs and feature a Hall of Famer at quarterback. The 2024 version of the Chiefs seemed to find ugly ways to win this season, regardless of the numbers, and it seems likely that this will continue. As for Washington, their 6th place overall ranking seems fair considering what we saw this year – Washington blew out bad teams and mostly struggled against the few good teams that they played. Their mid-tier rankings reflect these highs and low.
Of the remaining 8 teams, Houston’s offense was the least effective from a statistical perspective, by a wide margin.
Defense
The following chart shows the defensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole:
NFL Playoff teams defensive rankings
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4.067 | 2 | 13 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 6.533 | 5 | 9 |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 9 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 7.533 | 7 | 2 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 7.600 | 10 | 8 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 7.600 | 10 | 3 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10.400 | 12 | 14 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 10.600 | 13 | 12 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 13 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 11.133 | 14 | 4 |
In terms of defense, you can see that Philadelphia was the top-tier of all of the remaining playoff teams, whereas Washington, Buffalo, and the Rams were the lowest-ranked franchises by a significant margin. Washington’s terrible rush defense brought their overall rankings down by a significant margin.
Rankings summary
This chart shows the combined offensive and defensive rankings for each of the 14 playoff teams, along with the average of both rankings and the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings for each team, sorted by lowest – i.e., best – combined ranking:
NFL Playoff teams average rankings
| Offense | Defense | Ave | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | Opp win % | ||||
| Philly (14-3, #2) | 6.000 | 4.067 | 5.034 | 1 | 1.933 | 13 | |||
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 2.615 | 7.533 | 5.074 | 2 | 4.918 | 2 | |||
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 2.923 | 7.600 | 5.262 | 3 | 4.677 | 3 | |||
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 6.231 | 10.400 | 8.316 | 9 | 4.169 | 14 | |||
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 6.154 | 10.600 | 8.377 | 10 | 4.446 | 12 | |||
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 9.615 | 7.600 | 8.608 | 11 | 2.015 | 8 | |||
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11.692 | 6.533 | 9.113 | 12 | 5.159 | 9 | |||
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 11.385 | 11.133 | 11.259 | 14 | 0.252 | 4 | |||
Congratulations. You made it to the end of this little exercise. Trust me, this could have been alot longer, and if I’d had more time, it would have been. There’s a reason that I haven’t gone through this exercise for the past few seasons.
What we can see is that overall, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Detroit had the best regular season statistical production of all of the playoff teams. The fact that Ravens and Lions also had two of the toughest schedules mean that, at least from a purely statistical point of view, I’d place those two teams as the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. Washington’s 9th place ranking feels about right when judging their regular season performance when compared to the other playoff teams.
What’s also clear here is that, at least from a statistical basis, the Rams don’t belong with the rest of the group.
WASHINGTON AT DETROIT OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT
(as of Thursday (active roster only))
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Washington | Lions |
| LB J. Magee, hamstring; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O | T T. Decker, NIR (personal); Tues: NL; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP |
| LB B. Wagner, ankle; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP | DL P. O’Conner, calf; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| WR J Crowder, hamstring; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP | CB E. Rakestraw, hamstring/illness; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; game: Q |
| TE Z. Ertz, rib; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP | G K. Zeitler, hamstring; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; game: O |
| DE C. Ferrell, knee; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP | CB T. Arnold, foot; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| DT D. Payne, finger; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP | RB D. Montgomery, knee: Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP |
| TE B. Sinnott, shoulder; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP | |
| TE J. Bates, shoulder; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP | |
| T B. Coleman, shoulder; Tues: NL; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| K Z. Gonzelez, hip; Tues: LP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| LB D. Hampton, back; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| CB M. Lattimore, hamstring; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP | |
| LB F. Luvu, shoulder; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP | |
| TE C. Yankoff, hamstring; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; game: Q | |
| LB M. Walker, illness; Tues: NL; Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP; game: Q | |
| WR KJ Osborn, finger; Tues: NL; Wed: NL; Thurs: FP |