2025 Conference Championship Weekend Preview
January 24, 2025
by Steve Thomas and David Earl
I’m sure it’s tough for even those individuals running the Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders Washington franchise to fully contemplate what it’s been like for the fans of this team for the past 25 or so years. From embarrassment, mismanagement, and horrific personal tragedy to performance on the field ranging from mostly below average to rarely above average and multiple occasions of terrible performance, Washington’s fanbase has been witness to any number of amazing events over the years. Except one thing: sustained excellence. The 2024 season was what we all hope was the first step towards the “sustained” part, although that will come in time. However, what we are currently experiencing is the “excellence” part, particularly over the past few weeks. Somehow, Washington has gone from the lowest of lows on the field to the NFC Championship game. It’s stunning. Will Washington win this game? It’s obviously a tall order, but we’re here for it.
Oh, yeah, and also, the Buffalo Bills face the Kansas City Taylor Swifts in the late game, so there’s that.
Our Championship Weekend preview is below.
2025 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Championship Weekend
Sunday, Jan. 26
3:00 p.m. – Washington (#6) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2) (FOX, FOX Deportes)
6:30 p.m. – Buffalo Bills (#2) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1) AFC (CBS, Paramount+)
Super Bowl LVIII
Sunday, Feb. 9
6:30 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana (FOX)
Halftime Show – yet another washed up rapper because the NFL doesn’t understand that people do want something besides R&B or rap Kendrick Lamar
DAVE’S CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP MATCHUP PREVIEW
Washington (#6) at Philadelphia Eagles (#2)
Early line: Eagles -6.5 (Total Points 47.5)
In a rubber match that no one ever saw coming in the NFC Championship game, Washington certainly is facing yet another tough challenge. Before looking into this game, let’s revisit the prior two matchups. In the last matchup, Washington beat the Eagles in a last-minute drive, but that win is seen questionable as Jalen Hurts was knocked out in the 1st quarter, While the 5 turnovers would probably have been too much to overcome with Hurts still in, it was the defense Jayden Daniels faced that should not be overlooked. Washington’s offense averaged 5.8 yards per play, 4.7 yards per rush, and 6.4 yards per pass play, and Daniels finished with a 99.1 quarterback rating. The Eagles defense was ranked in top 3 in all categories but one: they ranked 9th against the rush allowing 4.3 yards per attempt. Yes, if Hurts had remained in the game, the 5 turnovers would probably have been too much to overcome. Regardless, Washington still successfully moved the ball on one of the league’s best defenses. Yes, their first meeting on Thursday night was much different, as Washington was ineffective running the ball and Daniels finished with an 81.6 quarterback rating. That said, many want to want to point to Hurts being out in the first meeting made all the difference, but Daniels’ rib injury certainly made the difference on that Thursday night meeting. Daniels was off target on critical throws that he has proven to consistently make all year, yet Washington entered halftime with a 7-3 lead. Early 3 and outs in the 3rd quarter allowed that great Eagles run game to take over the second half. An argument could be made that a healthy Daniels would have potentially extend that halftime lead and force the Eagles to rely more on their passing game. The “what if” game could be played for both previous games, but the fact of the matter this weekend is that there are two key factors entering this championship game. The Eagles 5th ranked rush offense that averaged 4.9 yards per rush faces Washington’s 28th ranked rush defense that allowed 4.8 yards per rush. The loss of right guard Samuel Cosmi as that Eagles’ interior defensive line led by Jalen Carter will be a concern. This should be a very good matchup. I am no longer going against Daniels in these playoffs as he is not your typical rookie quarterback.
Dave’s prediction: Washington wins 31-23
Buffalo Bills (#2) at Kansas City Chiefs (#1)
Early line: Chiefs -2 (total Points 47.5)
In the week 11 matchup between the Kansas City and Buffalo, the Chiefs averaged 5.0 yards per play compared to the Bills 5.2 yards per play. In that game, the Bills pass game was far more effective, averaging 6.6 yards per pass attempt despite an ineffective run game. The Chiefs, on the other hand, were much better in the run game, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The two categories in which the Bills won (1) were time of possession, at 34:03 compared to the Chiefs’ 25:57, and (2) the Bills 60% 3rd down conversion rate as compared to 50% by the Chiefs. This weekend’s matchup should result in yet another close game, because these two teams appear to be evenly matched in many categories during the regular season. One key to this game will be the Chiefs’ run defense, which allowed 4.2 yards per attempt this season, whereas the Bills offense averaged 4.8 yards per rush the final 3 weeks of the season and 4.6 yards thus far in the playoffs. If the Bills can run the ball effectively, that will not only control the clock but also prevent the Chiefs from taking advantage of what has become a susceptible Bills pass defense. The Bills closed out the final 3 weeks of the season by allowing a passer rating of 106.5. and Lamar Jackson had a passer rating of 114 last week. Mahomes has not had his typical season, with a 93.5 quarterback rating, but he also has continued to come through with his arm when needed and led the league with 7 game winning drives. While Josh Allen will help control the clock, the Bills will be playing on the road. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have a reputation of coming through when it counts the most. The recent play of the Bills pass defense will be a factor. All of these will ultimately favor the Chiefs.
Dave’s prediction: Chiefs win 26-24
TEAM STATISTICS
Washington:
Washington scored 485 points in the regular season, which was ranked 5th in the NFL. They are 7th in total yards, 17th in passing yards, 3rd in rushing yards, and 4th in yards per attempt. They have a 45.49% third down conversion rate, ranked 6th, and have a 63.75% conversion rate in the red zone.
On defense, Washington has surrendered 391 points, which is ranked 18th in the NFL. They are ranked 13th in total yards, 3rd in passing yards, 30th in rushing yards, and 30th in rushing yards per attempt.
Record: 14 – 5 (3rd) (Away: 7 – 3; NFC: 11 – 3; NFC East: 4 – 2)
The stats below[1] are only for the regular season, not the playoffs.
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 5 (points) / 7 (total yards) / 5 (yards per game) / 10 (yards per play) / 17 (passing yards) / 12 (passing yards per att.) / 3 (rushing yards) / 4 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 485 |
| Yards per game | 374.5 |
| Passing
|
525 att (25th); 365 comp; 69.5% comp per. (6th); 7.5 Y/A; 3665 net yds; 29 TD; 9 Int |
| Passing leader | Daniels (480 att (15th), 3299 yds (16th), 69.0% comp perc (6th), 25 TDs / 9 Int, 100.1 QB rating (11th) |
| Receiving leader | McLaurin (960 yds (24th), 124 tgts (17th), 73 rec (26th), 5 TDs, 13.2 YPC (38th)) |
| Rushing | 526 att (5th); 2619 yds; 5.0 Y/A; 144.1 Y/G (3rd); 25 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Daniels (148 att (33rd), 891 yds (23rd), 6 TDs (32nd), 6.0 Y/A (4th), long 46) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 50 / 26 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:56 / 7 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 45.49% / 6 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 63.75% / 6 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 18 (points) / 13 (total yards) / 16 (yards per game surrendered) / 17 (yards per play) / 3 (passing yards) / 16 (passing yards per att.) / 30 (rushing yards) / 30 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 391 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 334.9 |
| Opponent’s passing | 496 att (2nd); 307 comp (1st); 61.9% comp perc. (5th); 7.0 Y/A; 3221 net yds; 25 TDs; QB Rating 93.9 (19th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 490 att (25th); 2337 yds; 4.8 Y/A; 18 TDs; 137.5 Y/G (30th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 43 / 12 / Fowler (10.5) |
| Tackles leader | Wagner (132) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 7 / 29 / Saintristil (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 38.67% / 15 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 59.68% / 21 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 29.2 Y/R (7th), 37 returns, long 62 yards (12th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 10.4 Y/R (9th), 12 returns, long 24 yards (25th), 0 TDs |
| Field goals | 81.4% (24th) |
| Kick return defense | 26.5 Y/R (8th), 73 returns (32nd), 2 TDs (32nd) |
| Punt return defense | 6.2 Y/R (2nd), 24 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 46.9 Y/P (18th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 16 / 17 / +1 / 15
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 111 / 20
Eagles:
Philadelphia scored 463 points in the regular season, which was ranked 7th in the NFL. They are 8th in total yards, 29th in passing yards, 2nd in rushing yards, and 5th in yards per attempt. They have a 40.61% third down conversion rate 3rd downs, ranked 10th, and are ranked 21st in the red zone.
The Eagles have the highest-ranked defense in the league by many measures. They have surrendered 303 points, which is ranked 2nd the NFL. They are ranked 1st in total yards, 1st in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards, and 11th in rushing yards per attempt.
Record: 16 – 3 (1st); Home: 10 – 1; NFC: 11 – 3; NFC East: 5 – 1)
The stats below are only for the regular season, not the playoffs.
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
7 (points) / 8 (total yards) / 9 (yards per game) / 12 (yards per play) / 29 (passing yards) / 7 (passing yards per att.) / 2 (rushing yards) / 5 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 463 |
| Yards per game | 362.2 |
| Passing | 448 att (32nd); 303 comp; 67.6% comp per. (8th); 7.9 Y/A; 3194 net yds; 24 TDs (12th); 6 Int (5th) |
| Passing leader | Hurts (361 att (22nd), 2903 yds (20th), 68.7% comp per. (8th), 18 TDs / 5 Int, 103.7 QB rating (5th)) |
| Reception leader | Brown (1079 yds, 97 targets, 67 rec, 7 TDs, 16.1 Y/C); Smith (833 yds (37th), 89 targets (51st), 68 rec ) (38th), 8 TDs (20th), 12.3 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 621 att (1st); 3048 yds; 4.9 Y/A; 179.3 Y/G (2nd); 29 TDs (3rd) |
| Rushing leader | Barkley (345 att (1st), 2005 yds (1st), 13 TDs (8th), 5.8 Y/A (7th), long 72 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 45 / 20 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 32:12 / 1 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 40.61% / 10 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 54.05% / 21 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 2 (points) / 1 (total yards) / 1 (yards per game surrendered) / 1 (yards per play) / 1 (passing yards) / 1 (passing yards per att.) / 10 (rushing yards) / 11 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 303 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 286.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 542 att (13th); 337 comp; 62.2% comp per. (6th); 6.0 Y/A; 2961 net yds; 22 TDs; QB rating 82.5 (3rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 416 att (7th); 1771 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 9 TDs |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 41 / 1 / Sweat (8.0) |
| Tackles leader | Baun (151) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 13 / 16 / Gardner-Johnson (15) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 36.67% / 9 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 48.21% / 5 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 26.5 Y/R (23rd), 33 returns, long 51 yards (22nd), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 9.2 Y/R (21st), 28 returns, long 31 yards (17th), 0 TDs |
| Field goals | 77.8% (26th) |
| Kick return defense | 28.6 Y/R (24th), 29 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 7.5 Y/R (7th), 24 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punting | 47.9 Y/P (12th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 15 / 26 / +11 / 6
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 103 / 11
WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (active roster only)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Washington | Eagles |
| G S. Cosmi, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | TE D. Goedert, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP |
| QB J. Driskel, illness; Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | T F. Johnson, NIR (personal); Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP |
| DT D. Payne, knee/finger; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | C C. Jurgens, back; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB B. Wagner, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP | WR B. Covey, neck; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O |
| TE J. Bates, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | WR AJ Brown, knee/NIR (rest); Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| WR J. Crowder, NIR (rest); Wed: NL; Thurs: LP; Fri: NL | QB J. Hurts, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DE C. Ferrell, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | T L. Johnson, knee/NIR (rest); Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DE J. Jean-Baptiste, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | CB Q. Mitchell, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| LB F. Luvu, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | QB K. Pickett, ribs; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| TE B. Sinnott, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP | OLB J. Sweat, ankle/NIR (rest) ; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| WR O. Zaccheaus, hip; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | DT B. Young, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; game: O |
| C T. Biadasz, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| T B. Coleman, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| TE Z. Ertz, rib; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| LB D. Hampton, back; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| RB J. McNichols, hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB M. Lattimore, NIR (rest); Wed: NL; Thurs: NL; Fri: DNP |
Elevated:
CB Kevon Seymour
DT Carl Davis
Inactives:
WR K.J. Osborn
QB Jeff Driskel (Emergency QB)
CB Michael Davis
RB Chris Rodriguez Jr.
LB Dominique Hampton
G Sam Cosmi
DT Daron Payne
[1] Statistics sourced from www.pro-football-reference.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.sportingcharts.com, www.footballdb.com