Update: What are the odds of success for a Top 10 pick?
March 31, 2025
by Steve Thomas
Have you ever wondered what position group has the best odds of success in the NFL draft? Yeah, I have too. As a matter of fact, I also wondered back in March of 2020, when I originally ran a series of four columns leading into the draft in which I tried to analyze the success, or lack thereof, of all of the draft picks from 2000 through 2019. It was a huge undertaking that started with a fairly innocent question from someone in our comment section that, in typical Steve Thomas fashion, ended up taking on a life of its own and became one of the biggest undertakings I’ve ever done for this website. Well, since five years have gone by and we’re now leading into the 2025 draft, I decided to update all of the data and re-run the results through 2024, since (a) the results will change based on recent drafts as well as accomplishments of the prior draft picks since the 2020 season, and (b) some of you likely didn’t read the original columns. As a result, over the next four weeks, starting with this column, I’ll cover the following:
- Week 1: Top 10 draft picks (today)
- Week 2: picks 11 – 20 and 21 – 32 of round 1, and round 2
- Week 3: Top 10 draft picks sorted by team
- Week 4: Rounds 3 through 7
I’m going to essentially duplicate the data and just add the last five drafts, mainly because this was a huge undertaking and I don’t want to completely reinvent the wheel here. I also reserve the right to change this lineup, or skip one of these if I think something better can be done or if I get bored with it.
Parameters
This study was originally born in the Chase Young draft year, when I contemplated the odds of the Redskins actually drafting a 10 year, big-time, All Pro, Hall of Fame worthy starter that year, Mr. Generational Talent himself, Chase Young. Of course, as we all now know, he ended up being the opposite of that label, which is exactly what I predicted at the time. In order to put some sort of objective reality to the principal question of the general odds of success of draft picks, with the help of the fabulous Pro Football Reference website I pulled every draft pick between 2000 and 2024, broken down by position group, and manually counted the number of players selected in the top 10 of each year’s draft who have been (1) First Team All Pro selections, (2) have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, and (3) only spent 1 or zero years as a full-time starter. The last category is the only objective indicator I could come up with for players who were clear and obvious busts.
Being selected for an All Pro team or a Pro Bowl isn’t necessarily a conclusive indication of a “successful” top 10 draft pick, but it is the least convoluted way to establish some sort of objective frame to the argument.
Study limitations
The most obvious limitation to this study is that the class of 2024 has only had one year of play time, so while it’s not completely fair to evaluate that year group, the All Pro and Pro Bowl selections in year one are stats worth compiling. Therefore, I left the class of 2024 out of the “years started” / bust category but counted it in the others.
My original use of the draft classes of 2000 – 2019 was totally arbitrary and for no other reason than because it was an even 20 years. Adding the 2020 – 2024 draft classes to the analysis helps, but it still leaves out decades of draft picks.
In addition, I didn’t separate this data by 3 – 4 and 4 – 3 linebackers, or by just an “edge” category. I also combined corners and safeties into one “defensive back” category, and turned tackles, guards, and centers into just “offensive line”. First, players in each of those position groups sometimes change positions in the NFL, and I couldn’t come up with an objective way to account for that. More importantly, it was going to became way too much brain damage for what started out five years ago as a quick look at some data but, in typical Steve fashion, became much more than that.
Finally, these categories aren’t decisive; for example, Robert Griffin III was drafted #2 overall by the Redskins, made one Pro Bowl, and started multiple years, and thus doesn’t look like a bust by these evaluative criteria, but clearly ended up being a bust when his career is evaluated as a whole. So, my system isn’t precise and is only intended to give a general idea of the success rate of drafting in the top 10 by position group.
With that having been said, let’s proceed.
Data
The first chart shows the (1) total number of players drafted between 2000 and 2024 in each position group, (2) the number selected to the hall of fame, (3) the number of players who earned multiple First Team All Pro selections, (4) the number of players who’ve earned at least 1 First Team All Pro selection, (5) the number selected to at least one Pro Bowl, and (6) the number who have only been a full time starter for just 1 year or zero full years, except for the class of 2024. It is sorted by the number of players drafted in each position group. Bonus points if you can guess the five hall of famers without looking it up. I’ve also included the totals for all 250 draft picks, the median for each position group by category, and for the more statistically-oriented, the standard deviation for each category. Standard deviation is a measure of the average amount of variance of from the overall mean in each category. Don’t worry, I’ll explain the relevance below.
| Position | # drafted in top 10 | # selected to HOF | # with multiple 1st tm AP selections | # selected as 1st tm AP tm once | # selected to a PB | # only started 1/0 yrs pre-‘24 |
| QB | 48 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 6 |
| OL | 41 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 18 | 2 |
| WR | 36 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 5 |
| DB | 31 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 2 |
| DE | 29 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 4 |
| LB | 24 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 2 |
| DT | 19 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| RB | 17 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| TE | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| TOTAL | 250 | 5 | 29 | 54 | 131 | 22 |
| MEDIAN | 29.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| STAND DEV | 13.18 | 0.53 | 1.99 | 2.92 | 6.95 | 2.13 |
The next chart shows the percentage of players drafted in the top ten, by position group, who have been selected to multiple First Team All Pro teams, sorted from highest to lowest percentage, plus the total for all 250 draft picks, the median by position group, and the standard deviation:
| Position | % to multiple AP tms |
| RB | 23.53% |
| LB | 20.83% |
| DB | 19.35% |
| OL | 12.20% |
| DE | 11.00% |
| DT | 10.53% |
| WR | 8.33% |
| QB | 2.00% |
| TE | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | 12.00% |
| MEDIAN | 10.53% |
| STAND DEV | 8.10% |
The next chart shows the percentage of players drafted in the top ten, by position group, who have been selected to at least one First Team All Pro team, sorted from highest to lowest percentage, plus the total for all 250 draft picks, the median by position group, and the standard deviation:
| Position | % selected to AP tm at least once |
| RB | 41.18% |
| LB | 29.17% |
| DB | 32.26% |
| DT | 31.58% |
| DE | 27.59% |
| OL | 17.07% |
| WR | 16.67% |
| QB | 6.25% |
| TE | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | 21.60% |
| MEDIAN | 27.59% |
| STAND DEV | 22.42% |
The next chart shows the percentage of players drafted in the top ten, by position group, who have been selected to at least one Pro Bowl, sorted from highest to lowest percentage, plus the total for all 250 draft picks, the median by position group, and the standard deviation:
| Position | % selected to at least 1 PB |
| DB | 67.74% |
| RB | 64.71% |
| TE | 60.00% |
| QB | 56.00% |
| DE | 55.00% |
| LB | 54.17% |
| DT | 52.63% |
| OL | 43.90% |
| WR | 33.33% |
| TOTAL | 52.40% |
| MEDIAN | 55.17% |
| STAND DEV | 10.47% |
The last chart shows the percentage of players drafted in the top ten, by position group, who have only been a full-time starter for either just 1 season or zero seasons, sorted from lowest to highest percentage, plus the total for all 250 draft picks, the median by position group, and the standard deviation:
| Position | % who started only 1 or 0 seasons |
| DE | 14.00% |
| WR | 13.89% |
| QB | 12.50% |
| LB | 8.33% |
| DB | 6.45% |
| DT | 5.26% |
| OL | 4.88% |
| TE | 0.00% |
| RB | 0.00% |
| TOTAL | 8.80% |
| MEDIAN | 6.45% |
| STAND DEV | 5.37% |
Analysis
The draft was a crapshoot in 2019 when I originally ran this data, and it remains a crapshoot today, even at the top of the draft. The odds are good that your favorite team isn’t going to find a franchise player, and that your favorite prospect isn’t ultimately going to turn out the way you expect.
First, the tight end numbers are statistically irrelevant since only 5 have been drafted in the top 10. Tight ends are either undervalued in the draft or just tougher to find, one or the other. Also, it isn’t reflected here because I combined safeties and corners into one “defensive back” group, but very few pure safeties are drafted in the top 10 – in fact, only three since 2000, including the late, great Washington star Sean Taylor – so the “defensive back” category is essentially just corners for these purposes.
The main outliers were quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers, and to a more limited extent, defensive backs and linebackers.
An abnormally high number of quarterbacks are drafted in the top ten, 19.2%, the most of any position group. This is nearly 1.5 standard deviations higher than the median, which in simple terms means that quarterbacks are drafted 1.5 times higher than the “middle point” for all of the other position groups. Considering the importance of the position to the teams, that is to be expected. The consequence is that some are overdrafted, which means in turn that fewer become stars – the quarterback group has the second-lowest percentage who earn either one or multiple First-Team All-Pro honors, second only to the tight end group, which as I said earlier has a statistically irrelevant number of draftees in the top 10. In my view, the fact that the Pro Bowl rate is a bit higher for quarterbacks, 56%, which is fifth, in more a testament to the high-profile nature of these players amongst their fan base than anything else. Many of these quarterbacks are decent players, but never make it to “elite” status, despite the fact that they are highly drafted. The “bust” rate is also high for quarterback, third-highest, barely behind wide receivers and defensive ends. As I said, quarterbacks are overdrafted. None of this should be a surprise to anyone.
The running back group fared remarkably well in this study. A fairly low number are drafted in the top 10, only 17 since 2000, which is just 6.80% of the total 250 draft choices and second to last only to tight ends. However, they have the highest percentage of All Pro selections, the second-highest percentage of Pro Bowl selections (in the case of Pro Bowls, almost a full standard deviation above the median) and zero obvious busts. For all of the grief that running backs take in the draft, this information indicates that it selecting one in the top 10 may be worth it. My guess is that teams are typically far more selective and leery of drafting running backs high in round one out of a belief that quality running backs can be found elsewhere, and the result is a great number of hits from the top 10.
The defensive back group also fared pretty well, producing Pro Bowlers at a rate of 67.74%, which is more than a full standard deviation above the median. The All-Pro rates for defensive backs are almost above the media.
An abnormally high percentage of linebackers have earned multiple First Team All Pro honors (20.83%), second only to running backs.
The wide receiver group is at or near the bottom in almost every category. A few multiple-time First Team All-Pros have been unearthed (8.33%, which is below the median point), but other than that, this position group has the second-biggest bust percentage (more than a full standard deviations above the median) and the lowest chance of finding a solid, top 10-worthy player who is going to be selected to a Pro Bowl or two. Receivers are clearly the most risky top 10 pick other than quarterbacks.
All of the other position groups were somewhere in the muddled middle in terms of the success or failure of teams to draft successful players in the top 10.
While not many are going to be a total bust who can’t succeed at all, the odds are roughly a coin flip that your team’s Top 10 draft pick even becomes an above-average player.
Conclusion
Did you make it all the way to the end of this without falling asleep? Yes? Outstanding – you win a prize. Send your address to Alex Zeese, and he’ll send you a monetary reward.
The unescapable conclusion is that the draft is – wait for it – very hard, barely up to the level of a crapshoot even at the top of the draft. In general, it’s much more likely than not that your favorite NFL team’s top 10 pick is going to either be average or just fail, not become a major franchise-caliber player. Only 12% of top 10 picks become big-time, franchise-changing multiple All-Pro players, whereas just 52% of them even make one Pro Bowl, and 8.8% of them outright fail in spectacular fashion.
If you want a safe selection in the top ten, pick a running back or a defensive back. Your worst odds are on quarterbacks and wide receivers. Every other position group is pretty close to the others in terms of the odds of finding that big-time player that each team craves.
It’s no wonder that talented general managers are in such high demand, as the teams who can consistently beat these bad odds are probably going to be able to consistently put their teams in a position to win every year, whereas the teams with historically bad scouting and leadership, such as Washington prior to the Adam Peters era, will most likely continue to wade through the murky waters of failure. Cheers.