Updated: The odds of success for a draft pick, part 4
April 21, 2025
by Steve Thomas
Thankfully, this is the final installment of my update to my in-depth analysis of the odds of draft pick success. This originally started out five years ago with an innocent comment by a reader about the chances a draft pick will make it in the NFL. That turned into a four-part series in which I analyzed every draft pick from 2000 to 2019, which was probably the largest undertaking I’ve ever done for The Hog Sty. Then, about a month ago, for some reason, I decided to update each column with the data from the drafts from 2020 to 2024.
First, here are the links to the updated parts 1, 2, and 3 of this series:
Part 1, analysis of picks 1 – 10 from 2000 – 2024: click here to read
Part 2, analysis of pick 11 – 20 and 21 – 32 of round 1 and all of round 2 from 2000 – 2024: click here to read
Part 3, analysis of picks from 2000 – 2024 sorted by team: click here to read
In this part, I’ll examine rounds 3 through 7; however, unlike the previous efforts, I’m going to take a different approach. Analyzing the chances of finding a First Team All Pro, or for that matter, even a Pro Bowler, drafted in these rounds is a pointless waste of time, because the odds are incredibly remote, and the data would include a whole lot of “0.0%” figures. Of the more than 3700 players who have been drafted in rounds 3 – 7 between 2000 and 2019, just 20 total, from all positions, have been selected to 2 or more First Team All Pro teams, which is a hit rate of about .5%; i.e., one half of one percent. So, the odds of finding a superstar in the bottom five rounds are roughly that of having a unicorn trot up into your yard.
Given that, I instead decided to figure out the odds of unearthing a long-term starter in rounds 3 through 7. In order to do this, I pulled every player drafted in rounds 3 through 7 between 2000 – 2019 and counted every player who has been a full time starter for 4 or more seasons. I selected that particular 19 year period because it was the closest I could get to the present day while still giving players drafted in the later years a chance to develop into starters. My four year line is totally arbitrary, but I believe it represents a player who can be reasonably viewed as a regular starter. This isn’t perfect, but I think this is a reasonable way to analyze this question.
One additional limitation: the only way for me to calculate this data was to manually count and sort each draft pick. Therefore, it’s probable that I miscounted and/or incorrectly sorted a couple of these. Any errors are most likely very minor and will not effect the overall results.
The Data
The follow chart shows (1) the total number of players drafted in rounds 3 and 4 between 2000 – 2019, sorted by position, (2) the total number of those draft players who have been full-time starters for 4 or more years, and (3) the percentage of such players, by position group and total per year:
| Pos | Rd 3 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 3 by position | Rd 4 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 4 by position |
| QB | 26 | 3 | 11.54% | 28 | 4 | 14.29% |
| RB | 54 | 8 | 14.81% | 85 | 11 | 12.94% |
| WR | 93 | 23 | 24.73% | 89 | 9 | 10.11% |
| TE | 46 | 16 | 34.78% | 41 | 12 | 29.27% |
| OL | 107 | 49 | 45.79% | 120 | 28 | 23.33% |
| DT | 68 | 18 | 26.47% | 55 | 14 | 25.45% |
| DE | 57 | 18 | 31.58% | 62 | 19 | 30.65% |
| LB | 99 | 32 | 32.32% | 93 | 23 | 24.73% |
| DB | 141 | 32 | 22.70% | 150 | 25 | 16.67% |
| Sum | 691 | 199 | 723 | 145 | ||
| Total% | 28.80% | 20.06% |
The next chart shows the same data for rounds 5 and 6:
| Pos | Rd 5 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 5 by position | Rd 6 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 6 by position |
| QB | 34 | 0 | 0.00% | 47 | 3 | 6.38% |
| RB | 58 | 3 | 5.17% | 80 | 1 | 1.25% |
| WR | 81 | 7 | 8.64% | 98 | 5 | 5.10% |
| TE | 49 | 13 | 26.53% | 45 | 7 | 15.56% |
| OL | 114 | 19 | 16.67% | 128 | 20 | 15.63% |
| DT | 50 | 11 | 22.00% | 61 | 8 | 13.11% |
| DE | 53 | 9 | 16.98% | 59 | 4 | 6.78% |
| LB | 103 | 15 | 14.56% | 92 | 7 | 7.61% |
| DB | 149 | 26 | 17.45% | 149 | 11 | 7.38% |
| Sum | 691 | 103 | 759 | 66 | ||
| Total % | 14.91% | 8.70% |
The next chart shows the same data for round 7:
| Position | Rd 7 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 7 by position |
| QB | 37 | 2 | 5.41% |
| RB | 93 | 2 | 2.15% |
| WR | 117 | 6 | 5.13% |
| TE | 60 | 3 | 5.00% |
| OL | 148 | 20 | 13.51% |
| DT | 74 | 3 | 4.05% |
| DE | 80 | 4 | 5.00% |
| LB | 102 | 3 | 2.94% |
| DB | 149 | 8 | 5.37% |
| Sum | 860 | 51 | |
| Total % | 5.93% |
The next chart shows the total number of players drafted in rounds 3 – 7 from 2000 through 2019, sorted by position, the total number of starters, and the percentage of starters by position group:
| Position | Total # drafted rds 3 – 7 | Total # starters rds 3 – 7 | Total % starters rds 3 – 7 |
| QB | 172 | 12 | 6.98% |
| RB | 370 | 25 | 6.76% |
| WR | 478 | 50 | 10.46% |
| TE | 241 | 51 | 21.16% |
| OL | 617 | 136 | 22.04% |
| DT | 308 | 54 | 17.53% |
| DE | 311 | 54 | 17.36% |
| LB | 489 | 80 | 16.36% |
| DB | 738 | 102 | 13.82% |
| Sum | 3724 | 564 | |
| Total % starters | 15.15% |
Analysis
As an executive summary, if you take nothing else from this column, pay attention to the total percentages of starters unearthed in each round:
3rd round: 28.80%
4th round: 20.06%
5th round: 14.91%
6th round: 8.70%
7th round: 5.93%
These results are very similar to the results from 2020 – in other words, the last five drafts weren’t substantially different than the 2000 through 2014 drafts.
In general, logic holds, in that each succeeding round is less and less likely to produce starters. The odds are slim, as a whole, even in round 3, but by round 5, it’s just half as likely as in round 3. Rounds 6 and 7 are about the same, with only a small handful ever becoming full-time starters.
As a side note, for those wondering, 70.55% of the players drafted in round 1, and 49.04% of the players drafted in round 2, between 2000 – 2019 in that time frame were full-time starters for at least 4 years.
So, overall, if you’re rooting for your favorite team to fill holes in its starting roster, they’ll probably find some over the years, but it’s going to be few and far between. The more interesting information comes in from the individual position group data – offensive linemen drafted in round 3 became full-time starters at a rate of almost 46%, which is far and away the largest percentage of any position group in any of the 5 lower rounds. If you learned anything from me over these past 4 columns, it’s that in the draft, coin flip odds are pretty good. In fact, offensive line is the leading position group overall (22.04%) and in every round. For whatever reason, on a percentage basis, it is clearly easier to find starting offensive linemen than any other position group.
On the other end of the spectrum, quarterbacks and running backs are last, with just 6.98% and 6.76%, respectively, of each group drafted in round 3 through 7 becoming full-time starters for at least 4 seasons. Just five quarterbacks drafted in rounds 5, 6, and 7 over this time period started 4 or more seasons (including one of the best ever, Tom Brady). My prior studies showed that an abnormally-high number of running backs drafted at the top of the draft became elite players with Pro Bowl and First Team All-Pro honors. The same cannot be said of running backs just becoming starters: they have the lowest or second-lowest starter percentage in every round.
The next tier down is tight ends, at 21.16%, with defensive tackles, defensive ends, and linebackers roughly grouped together below.
I don’t want this piece to be a long, detailed analysis, so I’ll end this here; you can plainly see the results for yourselves. The bottom line is that starters are hard to come by anywhere outside of rounds 1 and 2, with the mild exception of offensive lineman in round 3, but particularly in round 5 and below.