Where in the World are the Washington Commanders?

March 31, 2022

By Paul Francis

The Washington Commanders’ lease runs out at FedEx Field in 2027.  Dan Snyder has been searching out opportunities to build a new stadium, and that effort will accelerate in the years to come.

I’m now into part 3 of a 3-part series on potential locations for the new stadium of the Washington Commanders.  The past two part of the series focused on DC and Maryland.  Today we look at the potential for the team to make a brand new game-day home in Virginia.

Virginia

Here’s a fun fact for you: Virginia is the most populous state to not have a professional sports team of any kind.  But if you believe the latest scuttlebutt, that may change come 2027.  Before being ummm…let go…Bruce Allen had been supposedly laying groundwork for a stadium move with Virginia politicians, where the Allen name still carries weight.  Even without the inside track Bruce Allen may have brought to the halls of Richmond, it appears that Virginia and Dan Snyder have eyes for each other.  The team’s relationship with Virginia has existed for some time as the team’s headquarters, facilities and most recent training camps have been held in VA.  And with the Washington Commanders seeking to usher in a new era with a view to the future, perhaps it makes sense for the team to break new ground in a new home and a new location.  Let’s see how these ducks line up for the people and for the politics.

The People

The Commanders may be named for Washington DC, but let’s face reality: the demographics of the city have changed so much over the past 30 years you’re as likely to see Washington gear on the average passerby as any other team.  The team is not moving back into DC, so the real choice is between Maryland and Virginia.

Analytics from the ticket site SeatGeek were used to create a map of “NFL Fandom” a few years back showing a county-by-county national breakdown where NFL teams are most popular. (https://seatgeek.com/tba/articles/nfl-fandom-across-the-u-s/).  Virginia is core Washington football territory, while Maryland remains split up between Washington, Baltimore Ravens and even the Pittsburgh Steelers.  One of the key considerations that Snyder must consider from a fan perspective is that a Virginia-based stadium puts more “home” fans into play on gameday.  There are 3 proposed sites in Virginia – 2 in Prince William County and 1 in Loudon County.  We’ll consider the Prince William County locations as one option when assessing the pros and cons.

The Loudon County site would put the stadium in closest proximity to the current team facilities and headquarters, as well as have the potential advantage of Metro service.  The Silver line extension could help shuttle folks in and around the DMV with the same advantages/disadvantages as the Landover site.  The Prince William County locations lose Metro access but have an advantage in other ways.  More fans living around Richmond and areas south may view a Prince William location positively and lure them out as a regular gameday demographic.

Fact is that if Dan Snyder is interested in filling a stadium with actual Washington fans, the stadium probably needs to be in Virginia at this point.  Otherwise, he runs the risk of cutting ribbon on a multi- billion-dollar facility and suffer the same gameday embarrassment of recent years in which opposing fans make up half the attendance if not more.  One of the challenges is that Northern Virginia in general isn’t known for its great traffic flow.  Getting to gamedays would continue to be a commute challenge especially for those fans who are in the “D” and “M” of the DMV.  But the Virginia fans can offer a simple response:  It’s your turn to do the commute and come across the river our way!

The Politics

Between DC, Maryland and Virginia, the politicians in Richmond have so far offered the best package to Dan Snyder to relocate the stadium.  They want to help Snyder build the grand mini-city of restaurants, retail outlets, resort/conference center and other attractions.  Like Maryland, they have also offered the Washington Commanders a coveted sports betting license.  But perhaps the biggest edge that Virginia has over Maryland or DC is Virginia’s willingness to offer direct stadium financing in the form of municipal bonds.

Initially, reports out of Richmond said that Virginia was offering up to $1 billion in stadium financing.  With some legislators and public outcry concerned that too much was being offered to the Commanders at the expense of Virginia, a new, lower offer has emerged.  The current proposal scales back the state offering to $350 million, but leaves no cap on the amount of sales tax incentives available to the team based on local county agreements where the stadium might land.  This would be revenue back to the team from commerce happening around the mini-city complex that would accompany the stadium.

The three locales of the DMV may technically be in competition with one another for the next Commanders stadium, but it appears to be a one-horse race right now.  While Dan Snyder and the team have remained officially mum on the next stadium location, the team has retained the services of the lobbying firm McGuire Woods to represent its interests.  Speaking at a legislative hearing in February, lobbyist Tray Adams said at a Virginia legislative meeting regarding a possible Virginia site, “(The Washington Commanders) are going to go someplace. Absent some kind of incentive, they’re likely not to be here.”  But with $350 million dollars in stadium financing, uncapped sales revenue, a sports betting license and a willingness to help build the mini-city of Snyder’s dreams, I think it’s safe to say there are some incentives available.  And I think it’s safe to say that Virginia is likely going to get its first professional sport team.