Washington Commanders Way Too Early Win/Loss Prediction

Posted on April 21, 2022 by Dave

April 21, 2022

by David Earl

Taking An Early Look

As discussed in my last piece on Washington Being a Contender, there are many aspects of Washington’s upcoming 2022 schedule that are reminiscent of the 2019 season. They also won’t face a quarterback stretch like they did in the 2021 season, plus many of the defenses they will face are not projected as top-tier units. There is some optimism to be had going into week 1 of the 2022 season, so before we jump into the schedule let’s take a quick overview of Washington’s offensive line as my previously mentioned article discusses the upgrade Carson Wentz brings.

Washington Commanders Offensive Line Rankings per Football Outsiders:

Total Sacks Allowed: 24^th (43)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 18^th (4.3 ypc)
Run Blocking Stuff Rate: 6^th (15%)
Power run success: 3^rd

While there are metrics from Pro Football Focus that show Washington as a top 10 unit, the eye test each and every week shows a bit of a different story. I chose Football Outsiders for that very reason – Washington typically only seemed to win most of the short-yardage scenarios (ranked 3rd in the league) and gained positive yards nearly every run play, ranking 6th in a low stuff rate of 15%. The biggest overall issue was that pass protection was very inconsistent. Getting past the second level on designed run plays was a struggle all year.

As it stands today the offensive line should either remain the same or take a step forward, with the long-term deal for Charles Leno, swing tackle specialist Cornelius Lucas coming back, Chase Roullier healthy, and Samuel Cosmi improved in his second year. Losing Brandon Scherff, who once again missed significant time, will not be a catastrophic loss, as Wes Schweitzer has proven to be very capable in relief. The unit did well enough in run blocking but the pressures/sacks need to be cut down as too often Taylor Heinicke was running for his life. Some of these pass blocking issues can also be attributed to the wide receiver group being average after Terry McLaurin. As teams often focused on Terry, Curtis Samuels was never available and Dyami Brown was ineffective, a journeyman in Deandre Carter wound up being one of Washington’s more productive players. As nice of a season as he had, this scenario cannot repeat itself again if this offense is to have success.

That all said this column will make some assumptions about the current roster in place. McLaurin being flanked by a healthy Curtis Samuels and Dyami Brown taking the next step, Carson Wentz will have improved skill position rooms compared to his time in Indianapolis. J.D. McKissic and Antonio Gibson should make for a strong 1-2 punch, especially as safety valves for Wentz when the play breaks down. As far as the defense goes, I won’t go as far as to predict a repeat of 2019 considering the uncertain health status of Chase Young but considering this schedule they certainly have enough talent to be within the top 10. Thus this defense should rebound after a dreadful 2021 season which I discussed more in my previously mentioned article. After my excessively long-winded quick overview of Washington entering this season, let’s dive into their scheduled opponents.

The Season Prediction

Note: Following team stats and rankings from Lineups.com

Divisional Games: 4-2

Dallas Cowboys Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 7^th (358)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 24^th (4.5 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 29^th (11.1 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 21^st (60.9%)
Sacks: 12^th (41)
Overview: Dallas is Dallas, and they look great on paper but never seem to translate that on the field. They struggled against winning teams last season and couldn’t beat a playoff-caliber team since late October. Defense was their hallmark last season but even those results were erratic at best. While Micah Parsons looks to be a legit superstar, the rest of their defense is susceptible to the run and big pass plays past 20 yards.
Prediction: Split 1-1

New York Giants Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 23^rd (416)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 23^rd (4.5 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 7^th (9.5 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 9^th (52.1%)
Sacks: 22^nd (34)
Overview: It’s the Giants and they are in full rebuild, so Washington should be able to handle them rather easily this season. Sure, their defense is balanced and young but the Daniel Jones factor will negate any of that, to be honest.
Prediction: Sweep 2-0

Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 18^th (385)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 5^th (4.0 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 2^nd (9.2 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 29^th (66.7%)
Sacks: 31^st (29)
Overview: These Eagles games are always interesting regardless of how bad or good either team is in recent years. Jalen Hurts is a solid player but I don’t see a true NFL quarterback’s arm . While they didn’t apply consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season, their defense was disciplined and sound when attacking the ball. I don’t see much of a dropoff this year and without question Hurts is their wild card but the Wentz factor will be seen. They come close to a sweep against Philly but ultimately split.
Prediction: Split 1-1

Home Games: 3-3

Green Bay Packers Defensive Ranking:

Total Points Allowed: 13^th (371)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 30^th (4.7 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 9^th (9.8 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 28^th (66%)
Sacks: 16^th (38)
Overview: Aaron Rodgers is great but just how much will being without Davante Adams affect his overall play? It will but quarterbacks like Rodgers make those around him better so the dropoff will be seen but his overall production won’t suffer enough. Their defensive weakness will need to be Washington’s focus in this game with the running game as their secondary is technically sound and strong. Can Wentz temper his arm and be patient with the run game?
Prediction: Loss

Minnesota Vikings Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 24^th (426)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 29^th (4.7 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 24^th (10.7 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 14^th (55.9%)
Sacks: 2^nd (51)
Overview: Minnesota’s defensive strength – pressuring the quarterback – is not Washington’s strength, which doesn’t protect the quarterback on a consistent basis, but that may not matter. Minnesota’s combination of poor rush defense and a secondary vulnerable to the big pass play could be a Scott Turner masterpiece. Scheming play-action and plenty of misdirection to allow Wentz to fully utilize his big arm should produce enough big plays to win this game. I don’t see Kirk Cousins as an “Old team” motivation guy as he is always prone to making a mistake at the wrong time. I know the Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook factors but they haven’t been world-beaters with them either.
Prediction: Win

Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 28^th (457)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 14^th (4.3 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 17^th (10.3 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 12^th (55.6%)
Sacks: 23^rd (32)
Overview: Jacksonville certainly helped their defense by signing DT Foley Fatukasi and LB Foye Oluokun to a unit that wasn’t horrible late in the year. Their backend of the defense is still questionable as most of their points given up were through the air. Offensively they overpaid for a #2 WR in Christian Kirk, the health status of both their top running backs is questionable, and Brandon Scherff is often injured thus I am not sure just how much of a leap forward Trevor Lawrence will take this season. Too many holes this offense should exploit.
Prediction: Win

Tennessee Titans Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 6^th (354)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 4^th (3.9 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 23^rd (10.6 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 7^th (51.7%)
Sacks: 10^th (42)
Overview: Simply put, this will be one of the most balanced teams they face. Tennessee has a defense that’s tough to score on, especially in the red zone, and even tougher to run against. Will talented wide receiver A.J. Brown not have his contract settled by the season and will Derrick Henry finally hit a wall? Maybe so, but I’m not counting on either as this game will be closer than most think.
Prediction: Loss

Cleveland Browns Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 14^th (371)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 11^th (4.2 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 4^th (9.4 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 27^th (65.4%)
Sacks: 9^th (43)
Overview: I truly believe Deshaun Watson will ultimately face a long suspension and will take time to fully acclimated to the offense. Until Baker Mayfield is officially moved they will have a decent enough quarterback under center but, if he is moved, when this game is scheduled could determined this game’s outcome. There’s so much to unpack offensively for the Browns but their defense is a legitimate unit very capable of scoring as well. Browns, for now, get the edge solely because of their defense.
Prediction: Loss

Atlanta Falcons Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 29^th (459)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 13^th (4.3 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 13^th (10.1 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 24^th (63.8%)
Sacks: 32^nd (17)
Overview: Full rebuild, bad defense, and a mediocre quarterback so there isn’t much more to add.
Prediction: Win

Away Games: 3-2

Chicago Bears Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 22^nd (407)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 19^th (4.4 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 19^th (10.4 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 12^th (55.6%)
Sacks: 3^rd (49)
Overview: Yet again another game where play-action and misdirection will serve Scott Turner well in negating an aggressive pass rush from Chicago. Offensively, Justin Fields growth this season will go a long way in determining this game for sure. Losing Allen Robinson hurts but the emergence of Darnell Mooney should help ease that pain then add the steady David Montgomery at running back the Bears should be a solid offensive unit. This game could come down to scheduling as a December game could be the edge the Bears would need.
Prediction: Win

Detroit Lions Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 31^st (467)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 18^th (4.4 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 31^st (11.6 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 31^st (70%)
Sacks: 30^th (30)
Overview: This is another team in a state of flux led by a volatile who will not wow anyone. This could very well be a defensive scoring game for Washington with the running game ruling the day.
Prediction: Win

Houston Texans Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 27^th (452)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 27^th (4.6 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 30^th (11.3 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 20nd (62.1%)
Sacks: 7^th (32)
Overview: This is another rebuilding team with a bad defense, no quarterback, and a defense susceptible to everything, so only Washington looking past Houston will be their biggest issue.
Prediction: Win

Indianapolis Colts Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 9th (365)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 21^st (4.4 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 16^th (10.2 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 26^th (64.2%)
Sacks: 25^th (33)
Overview: No, Wentz will not get his revenge game outcome most will hope for; sorry, especially with the addition of Stephon Gilmore to an already talented defense. While last year’s defensive stats may not show it, this unit was a good group who just underperformed with a weak part of their secondary shored up with Gilmore. Matt Ryan is a downgrade from Wentz but still gives the Colts a good viable starter and Jonathon Taylor is just a stud running behind what should be a healthy and talented unit in the trenches.
Prediction: Loss

San Francisco 49ers Defensive Rankings:

Total Points Allowed: 10^th (365)
Yards Per Rush Attempt: 7^h (4 ypc)
Yards per Completion: 5^th (9.4 ypc)
Redzone TD allowed: 15^th (56.7%)
Sacks: 5th (48)
Overview: Great defense and a dynamic offense, as long as Deebo Samuels is still there, will rule the day for this well-coached team. San Francisco should be one of the elite teams in the NFC and will just outmatch Washington in every phase of the game.
Prediction: Loss

Final Way Too Early Record Prediction: 10-7

Key Note: As of today I see 10 wins being the ceiling because Washington will surely drop a game they should win so an 8 or 9 win season is probable is my initial opinion. The Vegas Line of 7.5 wins is definitely achievable.

Football Outsiders Key Definitions:

Run Blocking Stuff Rate: “Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage.”
Power Run Success: “Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown.”