Paul’s Pivotal…Rants

October 5, 2022

By Paul Francis

I’m not doing the pivotal plays this week.  I’m not going to sit down and re-watch a condensed version of that Dallas debacle and try to find plays that mattered.  Not worth it.  We’re not looking at specific plays this week; we’re assessing the big picture, 2 years and 4 games into the Ron Rivera Era.

So, what you’ll get is a rant.  Bear in mind that it’s not an emotional rant.  As a lifelong Washington fan who is sticking it out with the team, I’ve learned to process the “Ls” like a man without wasting extra energy on feeling overly disappointed or sad or forlorn.  These sorts of embarrassing losses to rivals who are starting backup quarterbacks are typical enough for me, that the emotions have just sort of bottomed-out, and it is what it is.  I’m not lighting up the usual blistering condemnations of Dan Snyder as an owner or regurgitating details of the average problems we all see with our eyes when we watch the team play.  I’m just going to offer some pivotal rants about what I see ahead.

Ron Ain’t Going Nowhere Rant

There has been a swell of momentum calling for a mass purging of the coaching ranks, starting with Ron Rivera himself.  But I think people need to realize that Ron ain’t going nowhere.  The reason for this has nothing to do with whether he’s handling the “one voice” role of GM-HC well (he’s not), but the realpolitik state of the Washington franchise and its owner.

Dan Snyder is for all intents and purposes a lame-duck owner at the moment.  So long as Congressional and NFL investigations continue, his hands are effectively tied as a meaningful decision-maker.  Remember, he’s technically on double-secret probation, right?  Furthermore, momentum appears to be mounting among some NFL owners to further punish or even oust Snyder as an owner (fingers-crossed!!!).  So, Dan’s move right now is to lay low, stay quiet and let things run their course.  He needs to play along with the double-secret probation and make as few waves as possible.  Firing your coach-GM, creating fresh instability at the top of the franchise, and starting from scratch is the opposite of that.  Facts.

The Commanders are effectively being run by Jason Wright (on the business side) and Ron Rivera (on the football side), while Tanya Snyder pretends to pay attention to what’s happening at the owners meetings.  Ron has a 5-year contract, and my bet is that he sees every year of that.  Therefore, while coaching turnover may happen among coordinators and assistants (JDR is a dead coach walking – bet), nothing will change at the tippy-top.  We’re stuck with owner, as well as his people for now.

Can Carson Wentz Be Salvaged Rant?

Ron’s biggest dilemma is the salvageability of Carson Wentz as a starting NFL quarterback.  Ron cycled through 5 different starting quarterbacks before making an aggressive move for Carson Wentz this past offseason.  I thought this was a defensible (though widely panned) move at the time given the poverty of the team’s options, and the dire need to do something to improve the position.  It was always a risky move, but there was some reward potential if Ron and the guys could manage to tap into “good Carson”.

Four games into the year, Ron is already facing a worst-case scenario, and he’s got some big decisions coming quickly.  The 300-yard/4 touchdown player of the week we saw in Week 1 is disappearing piece by piece, like Marty McFly’s family picture, as the games roll on.  Is it realistic to presume that this will get better even as we watch it get worse?  Ron Rivera’s teams do tend to start frustratingly slow, and then pick up.  But can Carson Wentz pull his stuff together?  The main issue with Wentz is not physical, nor do I believe it is the technical side of grasping a playbook or reading a defense.  It is the mental-emotional side of being Carson Wentz.  The failures of Philadelphia and Indianapolis must loom large in his head no matter how composed he presents himself.  And with every pressured dropback, sack, or incompletion sailing high; you can almost see him fighting off the temptation to believe that he’s as bad and washed-up as they’re saying he is.  What’s the turnaround for this?  I don’t know.  But Ron had better find one, because he’s on a collision course with himself.

Ron the GM Versus Ron the Head Coach Rant

What Ron is experiencing with the Wentz dilemma highlights all the reasons why Ron gave up assets to get Carson Wentz and has said all the right things about believing in him.  This appeared to be Ron going “all in” on this rebuild, especially considering the collateral cost of fitting Wentz’s salary into the books by making cuts on the offensive line and defense – moves that are coming back to bite the team.   How far is Ron prepared to ride Wentz down into the flames before bailing, if Carson doesn’t start to improve?  Ron the coach needs this thing to work out now, but Ron the GM needs to have an eye on building the franchise for the future.  Because despite the resources committed to getting Wentz, Ron also left himself an out.

When the Commanders took on Wentz’s contract, they had a chance to restructure the deal by creating guaranteed money in exchange for lower cap hits, but they did not.  Instead, by keeping the contract “as-is”, Washington can cut Wentz next year without any cap hit.  This means Ron’s marriage to Wentz can end just as abruptly as it began, with no strings attached.  The pick that the Colts get this year bumps up from a third-rounder to a second-rounder if Wentz plays 70% of the snaps this season.  This shrinks GM-Ron’s timeline for making the “big decision”, because with almost a quarter of the season gone, someone needs to be counting those snaps if things don’t start to improve quickly with the passing game.

Bottom Line Rant

Ron and Wentz do not get a full season to see how this works out; they get about 6 more games, until some point in November, before that 70% snap threshold approaches.  The decision needs to be made.  If Wentz isn’t convincing by the Eagles rematch and the Commanders are something like 3-6, then we need to save that second-round pick and see if Sam Howell can play.

We need to go into the offseason knowing if Washington is building around Howell, or if they are looking for a potential franchise quarterback in a supposedly quarterback-rich draft.  In the offseason, they can cut Wentz to free up resources and figure out how to reinvest them (offensive line!) to set the table for Howell or another young quarterback.

So…for all the losing and the poor play that is now taking place, it oddly and ironically makes for an interesting story to follow over the next couple months.  We’ll see.

**Rant Over**