Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Week 11 Takeaways Identity Found

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November 22, 2022

by David Earl

Old School Meets New Age

First off the running game is not pretty and is not even very good in terms of yards per carry average, at 3.9 for the season and 3.45 yards per carry in the last 2 games, but it has been effective. Against Philadelphia they converted 57% of their third downs but, most importantly, 9 for 12 converting third and short to go primarily through their running game. Against Houston they were only 23% converting on third downs; however, some of that can be attributed to the early play calling getting away from this formula of running the ball. In the last 2 games, Scott Turner has run the ball on 63% and 60% of the total called plays respectively, thereby dominating the time of possession.

Early on yesterday should have affirmed just how important the run game is for Taylor Heinicke as he was inaccurate and unsettled in the passing game. Once Washington settled in running the ball, Taylor was then able to utilize his mobility and play action to allow more time in the pocket and allowing plays to develop in front of him. In this offense, the tandem of Brian Robinson Jr. and Antonio Gibson is starting to blossom into a solid 1-2 punch. Robinson’s hard nosed, between the tackle running wears down the defensive line, and that opens up Gibson stretching the runs outside and gaining valuable yards. What really gives these 2 a solid future together is the fact that Robinson is serviceable in the passing game, and Gibson is a capable runner between the tackles.  This prevents Washington’s offense from being too 1 dimensional. The added touches and misdirection use of Curtis Samuel in the run game help keep the defense guessing on every play.

The only things that are holding back this offense’s true potential in the run game is the interior of this offensive line and Scott Turner‘s urges to stretch the ball downfield. This season Washington’s offensive line run-blocking win rate is ranked 26th in the NFL.  The 3rd and 2 run by Robinson in the third quarter is a prime example of this problem. He was met nearly immediately in the backfield by one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. This has been a continued theme all season. Robinson had to manufacture this run by dragging the defender forward for the first down. Since the offensive line isn’t going to miraculously improve over the remainder of the season, Turner will need to utilize Samuel in the run game and use play action in order to keep Heinicke upright in the passing game. As I said, this running game is not pretty but it is effective.

Defense Continues to Rise

I think it is safe to say that this defense has turned a corner this year but still has some issues they will have to play around for the rest of the season. The tandem of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne has become a unit that opposing offenses will have to game plan around. They both play off each other as though there’s an unspoken competition happening and it has benefitted this team greatly. This week they combined for 5 quarterback hits and 3 sacks while collapsing the pocket all afternoon, holding one of the league’s hottest running backs, Dameon Pierce, to .8 yards per carry. With Allen and Payne taking so much attention in the middle of that line Montez Sweat and the secondary were able to control the game from the first snap. The investment into this defensive line seems to be paying off and this is with Chase Young sidelined.

We’re beginning to see what the unit can do when they play within the scheme and not freelance like last season. This game was the first with Bobby McCain moved to the slot allowing a Darrick Forrest and Kamren Curl pairing to combine to become one of the more dynamic and productive safety tandems in the league. Forrest’s instincts for being around the ball as a single high safety resulted in 2 interceptions, and 2 pass defenses over the last 2 weeks, and allowed Jack Del Rio to bring Curl up into the box more often which is his strong suit. This could very well be the duo this organization has been looking for since the Sean Taylor and Laron Landry days (neither is Sean Taylor-special by the way), and that opens up the defensive playbook for Del Rio in so many ways. Speaking of Jack Del Rio and how this fan base wanted to run him out of town early on, how do you feel about him now? Jack’s patience for Jamin Davis, officially moving St-Juste to the outside, and bringing Forrest along at the right pace seems to have paid good dividends. The pieces are coming together – the defensive line is controlling the line of scrimmage, the secondary is now shows far more discipline, and the unit as a whole has a low missed tackle rate. The only real glaring weakness that will be exploited by the elite teams is the linebackers in coverage, who are still very poor in that skill.

Regarding the tandem of Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen, with how they have grown together and fed off each other as they do, will this team re-sign Payne to a contract that could see upwards of $18 million average annual salary and guaranteed money around $35 million? Steve Thomas broke this down some time ago but certain team dynamics have changed including potentially clearing $26 million of the 2023 cap space in releasing Wentz without penalty. But with that potential Wentz savings comes a likely contract extension to Taylor Heinicke that could eat up about $15 million of the Wentz cap savings. It’s not quite as easy as cutting Wentz and then re-signing Payne but there is a path to keeping both defensive tackles at a cost on the roster. This will be an interesting dilemma for Ron Rivera because getting a 2024 third-round compensation pick and letting him walk would be a gross mismanagement. For more game recap click here.

Another Carson Wentz Rant…Hear Me Out

Yes, the quarterback carousel in Washington is very well documented with only the Cleveland Browns being a step worse over the years, but can we all please start being honest too? Andy Pollin has a moderate following and many regard him as a solid analyst which is why it’s frustrating seeing generic shots continuously thrown at Carson Wentz. I have eluded to the fact many times that Carson is not an elite quarterback and must have the pieces right around him to succeed. Yes, he can hold the ball too long and always look for that big hero ball play, which does lead to bad decisions, but that comes with a gunslingers-type mentality. When you design an offense for a Carson Wentz-type quarterback there are several ingredients needed to make this successful. The typical needs are of course skill players and a running game like for any quarterback but Wentz has shown to be most productive with 2 aspects Washington sorely lacks: One is a reliable pass-catching big-bodied tight end like Zach Ertz in Philadelphia. Whereas many quarterbacks look to a running back when the downfield plays are locked up, Wentz utilizes a tight end for that security, and with Logan Thomas never 100% that was never an option for Wentz. Secondly, most importantly, is the play of the offensive line. I understand that’s important for any quarterback but when he holds onto the ball as much as he does combine with happy feet when constantly pressured, a good line is much more important to him than most. The Washington offensive line ranks 27th in pass block win rate and that is just putting Wentz in a no-win situation from the start.

Compare that to last season, when Washington was ranked 9th in pass block win rate and Ron Rivera did a poor job in protecting his quarterback asset. You would think Ron understood just how important the offensive line is for Wentz after all his claimed “film study” done on Carson Wentz. I will die on this mountain – if Washington had an a semblance of the 2021 offensive line with these skill position players this offense would at least be flirting with top-10 status. As it is today, Taylor Heinicke is simply a better fit, not based on talent, but rather on his pocket awareness and his ability to counter a terrible offensive line. Taylor will continue to underthrow passes that Wentz can routinely make, and is subjected to limited passing lanes due to height. Wentz obviously has zero limitations in that regard. Watching this defense coming into form, I wonder what this team could truly be if this offensive line was not as horrible as they are this season. Unfortunately, most fans will continue to be satisfied with the sheer size of the tip of an iceberg and not willing to realize just how much the water covers.