2023 Road to the Draft – Part 15

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April 24, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

The sale of the Washington franchise appears to be moving along, albeit slowly. The Josh Harris bid has had a satisfactory preliminary review from the NFL Finance committee. The fan base is waiting for the announcement of a finalized sales contract before celebrations begin in earnest.

The next big thing in the NFL offseason starts Thursday night with the NFL Draft. The draft has come a long way in my lifetime. When I was young, you found out who your team’s picks were by reading the newspaper the day after the draft. Nowadays, the pick is leaked on Twitter before it can be announced on television. The first NFL Draft that was televised was in 1980 by a startup sports network called ESPN, which was scrounging for content. ESPN added Mel Kiper to the telecast in 1984 and the draft portion of the offseason has been growing in popularity ever since. Disney, the current parent of ESPN, will bring in around $16 million in ad revenue for the Thursday night first round and could hit near $24 million for the entire three-day event.

Let’s Talk About Who is Good at Mocks

TheHuddleReport.com keeps track of how accurate first round mock drafts are for various media personnel with a five-year running average. The top 10 leaders are:

  1. Matthew Jones, Draft Examiner – 43.8
  2. Brendon Donahue, Sharp Football Analysis – 43.8
  3. Evan Silva, Establish the Run – 43.4 (1x Champion)
  4. Eddie Brown, San Diego Union-Tribune – 43.2
  5. Ryan McCrystal, Draft Ace – 43.0
  6. Jason Boris, Times News – 43.0
  7. Josh Norris, Underdog Fantasy – 43.0 (1x Champion)
  8. Ben Standig, The Athletic – 42.6 (3x Champion)
  9. Xavier Cromartie, College Football Metrics – 42.6
  10. Forrest N Long, The Huddle Report – 42.2 (2x Champion)

Most of our readers will recognize Ben Standig who covers the Commanders for The Athletic.

Let’s look at who they are picking for the Commanders:

Person Pick
Matthew Jones Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Brendon Donahue Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
Evan Silva Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
Eddie Brown Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State
Ryan McCrystal Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Jason Boris Publishes 24 hours or less before draft
Josh Norris Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
Ben Standig O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
Xavier Cromartie Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Forrest N Long Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

As you can see, even the “experts” don’t agree on which player is most likely the draft choice.

Mock Draft Data

The number of mock drafts is up 32 this week to 326. The Commanders will have the 16th overall pick in the first round. The position picked by Washington, descending frequency is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
CB 216 66.26% 62.59% 3.67%
OT 35 10.74% 10.54% 0.19%
QB 26 7.98% 8.84% -0.87%
TE 20 6.13% 6.80% -0.67%
RB 8 2.45% 2.04% 0.41%
IOL 7 2.15% 3.74% -1.59%
LB 7 2.15% 2.72% -0.57%
DL 4 1.23% 1.36% -0.13%
Edge 2 0.61% 0.68% -0.07%
WR 1 0.31% 0.68% -0.37%
S 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 326 100%  

Cornerback jumped almost 3.7% this week, as a lot of updated mocks shifted from another position to cornerback.  Offensive tackle and running back were up slightly. The big loser was the interior offensive line down almost 1.6%, followed by quarterback and tight end.

The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 16th pick are in descending frequency:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Joey Porter Jr CB Penn State 82 25.15%
Devon Witherspoon CB Illinois 41 12.58%
Christian Gonzalez CB Oregon 32 9.82%
Deonte Banks CB Maryland 28 8.59%
Brian Branch CB Alabama 16 4.91%
Will Levis QB Kentucky 15 4.60%
Broderick Jones OT Georgia 15 4.60%
Dalton Kincaid TE Utah 10 3.07%
Anthony Richardson QB Florida 9 2.76%
Michael Mayer TE Notre Dame 9 2.76%
Bijan Robinson RB Texas 8 2.45%
Kelee Ringo CB Georgia 8 2.45%
Darnell Wright OT Tennessee 8 2.45%
Cam Smith CB South Carolina 7 2.15%
O’Cyrus Torrence IOL Florida 6 1.84%
Paris Johnson Jr OT Ohio State 4 1.23%
Drew Sanders LB Arkansas 4 1.23%
Peter Skoronski OT Northwestern 3 0.92%
Bryan Bresee DL Clemson 3 0.92%
Anton Harrison OT Oklahoma 3 0.92%
Hendon Hooker QB Tennessee 2 0.61%
Trenton Simpson LB Clemson 2 0.61%
Emmanuel Forbes CB Mississippi State 2 0.61%
Dawand Jones OT Ohio State 2 0.61%
John Michael Schmitz IOL Minnesota 1 0.31%
Lukas Van Ness Edge Iowa 1 0.31%
Isaiah Foskey Edge Notre Dame 1 0.31%
Luke Musgrave TE Oregon State 1 0.31%
Mike Morris DL Michigan 1 0.31%
Nolan Smith LB Georgia 1 0.31%
Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee 1 0.31%
Grand Total 326 100.00%

Joey Porter Jr. maintained his significant lead over Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez this week. The top five selections are now all defensive backs. Will Levis, Broderick Jones, Dalton Kincaid, Anthony Richardson, and Michael Mayer round out the list of top 10 selections.

Mock Freshness

Age Age % Count of Age
New 26.07% 85
1 Week Old 20.25% 66
2 Weeks Old 9.51% 31
3 Weeks Old 7.67% 25
4 Weeks Old 6.75% 22
5 Weeks Old 5.21% 17
6 Weeks Old 5.52% 18
7 Weeks Old 2.76% 9
8 Weeks Old 2.15% 7
9 Weeks Old 4.29% 14
10 Weeks Old 0.92% 3
11 Weeks Old 1.53% 5
12 Weeks Old 1.84% 6
13+Weeks Old 5.52% 18
Grand Total 100.00% 326

Almost 56% of the mocks have been in the last 21 days.

Trades

There were six new trades this week, three trade downs and three trade ups. The three trade ups were all for quarterbacks (Will Levis, Anthony Richardson). On the trade downs, two resulted in cornerbacks being selected and one was a tight end.

Notes Trade Direction Trade Position Trade Team Player
No details Down 23 MIN Joey Porter Jr
WSH sends #16, #97 for #13 Up 13 NYJ Will Levis
MIN gets #16, #47, #118, WSH gets #23, 2024 1st round Down 23 MIN Luke Musgrave
WSG gets #11, SEA gets #16, #97, #150, 2024 Third round Up 11 SEA Will Levis
No details Up 5 SEA Anthony Richardson
No details Down 19 TB Deonte Banks

 

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, grindingthemocks.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthcap.com, spotrac.com, pro-football-reference.com, thehuddlereport.com