So What’s the Deal with Ryan Grant, Really?

 

August 26, 2017

by Steve Thomas

Redskins’ wide receiver Ryan Grant has received an inordinate amount of attention, both good and bad, considering that he’s been a 4th string receiver at best during his tenure in Washington, D.C.  We’ve had some particularly harsh criticisms about him on The Hog Sty, and he’s been something of a lightning rod amongst the fanbase.  On the other hand, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden has consistently praised him virtually since the first day he arrived on this team.  He’s a veritable mystery wrapped up in an enigma.  Of all of the player profiles I’ve written, this one truly fits the “So What’s the Deal with . . .” label better than the others.  As I sit here and type this introduction, I truly have no idea how my analysis of this particular player is going to turn out – the fundamental question about Grant is whether he’s as good a player right now as Jay Gruden says he is.  What does his background and performance thusfar tell us?  Let’s dive in and find out.

I’ll start by saying that this column is not going to be a film study, primarily because including it would make for an incredibly long piece.  I might do a film study of Grant, but that will be in a different column.  This piece will merely be a look at this player from a statistical perspective.  Consider this part 1 of either 1 or 2, depending on how I feel about writing a part 2 at some point in the short-term future and the response I get to this column.  If you want a film breakdown on Ryan Grant, please speak up.

In five years at Tulane from 2009 – 2013, Grant produced 196 receptions, 2769 yards, 14.1 yards per reception, and 21 touchdowns[1]. For the sake of context, Grant’s 196 receptions was ranked 51st amongst division I (or whatever DI is called now; don’t @ me because I don’t care) wide receivers who played during that same timeframe.  Ever heard of Eric Page?  Me neither.  He led NCAA division 1 in receptions with 306 from 2009 – 2013 and had a cup of coffee in both the NFL and the CFL, but now appears to be out of football.  Ryan Broyles from Oklahoma, who played with the Lions for 3 years, was second with 303.  Rams’ star Tavon Austin was 3rd with 288. The point is, that ranking by itself is interesting but could mean anything.  How about yardage?  Grant’s 2769 yards was ranked 183rd in division I.  The takeaway here is that Grant’s college career was productive but unspectacular, which isn’t exactly groundbreaking news considering that he was a 5th round pick.

At the NFL combine in April, 2014, Grant posted 4.64 in the 40 yard dash, 35.5 inch vertical leap, 8 bench press reps, and a 2014 combine best 6.68 sec in the cone drill[2].  I shouldn’t have to warn you not to put too much stock in a combine workout, but it can give an indication of basic athletic ability.  Grant’s combine workout shows below-average speed but above-average vertical leap, as well as possibly under-rated agility.  Long-time NFL executive and observer Gil Brandt said this about Grant at the time: “Grant’s position skills are impressive; he’s a really good route runner and has very good hands.”[3]  Another draft expert, Nolan Nawrocki, also mentioned his good hands, body control, and upfield quickness but also called him a “tweener” who lacks speed, physicality, and ideal “suddenness and toughness”.[4]  Three years later, this should sound familiar to Redskins fans.

As an NFL receiver, Grant has posted 39 receptions in 76 targets, 412 yards, 10.6 yards per reception, and 2 TDs in 48 games played[5].  If those numbers don’t sound particularly impressive to you, that’s because they aren’t.  Grant’s 39 receptions is ranked 78th in the NFL for wide receivers between 2014 – 2016 who played one of their first three seasons during that time period.  His 412 total receiving yards is ranked 112th under those same criteria.

The raw numbers have value, but don’t paint a complete picture when it comes to a wide receiver, at least with regard to receptions and yards, because in Grant’s case it is primarily driven by his lack of playing time.  However, when you inject catch % into these same criteria (2014 – 2016, receivers who played one of their first three seasons), Grant is ranked 53rd of 60, with him catching 51.3% of the balls thrown to him.  In contrast, Redskin receiver Jamison Crowder is ranked second under those same criteria, having caught 71.2% of his passes.  Yes, it’s true that other factors such as skill of the quarterback, the defense being played by the defensive back, and other things, affect catch percentage, but nonetheless, what’s unassailable is that for whatever reason Ryan Grant doesn’t catch very many of the passes thrown his way, even when compared to those of his experience level.  The fact that Jamison Crowder is ranked so highly by this measure tends to negate the effect of poor quarterbacking in this instance, at least in my view.

Still, though, I realize that some aren’t convinced about catch percentage as a statistical indicator of a wide receiver’s abilities.  How about drop percentage?  Before I get into this stat as applied to Grant, I feel obligated to warn you upfront that drop percentage is not overly an reliable measure from a purely statistical perspective because it depends on an observer’s subjective evaluation of whether the pass was dropped or not, thereby decreasing scientific reliability.  None of the sites that track this category, and for that matter, almost no advanced sports stats websites, period, are going to talk about scientific reliability when it comes to the stats they provide – the majority of these sites are merely for informational and entertainment purposes only, don’t particularly want people like me questioning what they do, and should not be taken as gospel.  Most of these sites want to draw in page views, not prove anything to a particular degree of scientific and/or statistical reliability.  Consider yourself forewarned[6].  In 2016, Grant had 19 targets and was credited with 1 drop, for 5.3% drop percentage[7], which was tied for 114th of 148 wide receivers who had at least 10 targets on the year.  In 2015, he had 2 drops on 42 targets, for a 4.8% drop rate, which was tied for 100th of 164 receivers who had at least 10 targets on the year. In 2015, he was assessed 0 drops on 15 targets, which tied for 1st among 157 receivers who met my arbitrary criterion.  Therefore, on his career to date, Grant has 3 drops amongst 76 targets, for a 3.9% drop rate.  For the sake of context, that would have placed him at 99th of 148 in 2016 had all 76 of those targets come in 2016.  Although I don’t have the precise numbers for the rest of the NFL from 2014-2016, it appears based on the 2016 numbers that Grant would be roughly in the bottom third or so of the NFL in this statistic.

In other words, when you look at both catch percentage and drop rate, Grant had thusfar not shown that his hands are as good as his reputation coming out of college or as good as the Redskins apparently believe.

Yards per catch is another measure of a receiver’s skill and productivity.  From 2014-2016, Grant averaged 10.56 yards per reception, which is 186th of 251, or roughly in the bottom quarter, of  receivers who had at least 10 receptions over those three seasons.

Grant has not had any more success when measured by yards after catch than by any other measure.  On his career, Grant has 147 yards after catch on 39 total receptions, for 3.76 yards after catch per reception[8].   Had those 39 receptions all come in 2016, Grant would have ranked 84th of 132 receivers with at least 5 receptions on the year, or roughly the bottom 36th percentile.

All of this data show that Grant Ryan has not produced particularly good raw numbers, and his advanced receiving numbers do not show that he produces at even a league average for a receiver.  Based on this, Jay Gruden’s faith in Grant appears to be misguided.  This isn’t to say that he can’t improve, or that what coach Gruden sees in practice from Grant isn’t outstanding.  Gruden clearly knows what he’s looking at far better than I do, but my personal, unexpert observations of Grant are that while he runs good routes and has good body control, but he isn’t particularly explosive, can’t separate from a defender, and has somewhat overrated hands.   The stats I have presented here appear to support those observations.  I am rooting for him to succeed, for sure, since he appears to be a hard worker, has no attitude problems, and is a player upon whom Gruden apparently intends to rely, but I’m skeptical that Grant is ever going to rise up to the level of productive and capable starter.  He can have solid career as a backup possession receiver, but I fear that if fans expect any more of him than that, they might be disappointed.

How do you feel about Ryan Grant?  Please let us know.

 

 

 

[1] All college stats shown in this column are courtesy of https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/.

[2]  http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/ryan-grant?id=2543759

[3] http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/ryan-grant?id=2543759

[4] http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/profiles/ryan-grant?id=2543759

[5] All NFL stats shown in this column are courtesy of https://www.pro-football-reference.com except as otherwise specifically indicated.

[6] Pro Football Focus is particularly unreliable, in this author’s opinion.  Their player rankings are essentially fraudulent, from a statistical point of view, because PFF merely quantifies the observations of a certain number of their employees and then intentionally deceives the public by pretending that they have a high degree of objective merit and reliability.  Mind you, we know nothing about the qualifications of these observers, and considering that the initial rankings, at least, come out early in the week, they are most likely watching the network broadcasts that don’t even show every player on every play.  PFF wants you to bamboozle you into believing that their rankings have real objective merit and reliability, but the truth is that they are junk science.  The rankings as presented have absolutely no real statistical reliability and are of unknown merit, and I encourage everyone to lend them no credence whatsoever.  Don’t be fooled, and don’t let PFF trick you.  That having been said, PFF does have a significant number of raw stats that are good and valuable, which is why most NFL teams are subscribers.  Trust me when I say that they aren’t paying attention to the rankings.  PFF should be ashamed of themselves regarding their rankings.  They are trying to play you for fools in that regard.

[7] Drop rate data is courtesy of www.sportingcharts.com.

[8] All YAC data is courtesy of www.footballdb.com, www.foxsports.com, and www.sportingcharts.com.