Washington Week 12 and 18 Opponent: Dallas Cowboys

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August 18, 2023

by David Earl

Dallas Cowboys Offseason

Let’s start with the most recent Cowboy news – guard Zack Martin agreed to a restructured deal assuring one of their top players remains to anchor a very good unit. With the loss of fellow guard Connor McGovern, Dallas had to act accordingly so as to not decimate the interior of the offensive line. Sticking to the offensive side of the ball, the loss of Amari Cooper to Cleveland a year ago was certainly felt; thus, in comes Brandin Cooks. While he has not always been a model of health throughout his career, there is no doubt what this six-time 1,000+ yard receiver brings. While Dallas’ passing game looks to be more refined, especially with Tony Pollard‘s versatility as a pass catcher, their running game does not seem to have improved. They were nearly racked in the bottom 3rd of the league running the ball and even though the loss of Ezekiel Elliott may not be too big considering his 2022 production, it is still a loss that Ronald Jones may not effectively fill. Finally, the loss of Dalton Schultz brings a lot more questions the answers in a now inexperienced tight end room. As far as their defense goes, the addition of cornerback Stephon Gilmore to an already stacked unit does not bode well for Washington’s offense.

Their draft didn’t WOW most people, but the additions of the 1st-round pick, defensive tackle Mazi Smith, and the 3rd round pick, linebacker DeMarvion Overshown, add good, high ceiling players to the front seven. Smith is a tank in the middle of the defense who helps shore up a rush defense that was mostly mediocre last season. While Overshown is not a traditional linebacker, this formerly converted safety can potentially help alleviate some of the pass coverage responsibilities for Micah Parsons. That will allow Parsons to be more disruptive in the backfield. As a whole, the Cowboys’ offseason didn’t set them back any major steps, and actually saw an already top defensive secondary become much more dangerous. Most fans do not want to admit this, but the Dallas Cowboys are clearly the second-best team in the NFC East. Now the one hope you can have is the NFC East is not always as it seems to be from one year to the next, so there is a very slight glimmer of hope for just some positivity.

Washington Defense vs Cowboys Offense

Defensively is where Washington will need to win any of these matchups and while I still give Dallas the edge here it is not by a wide margin. The Cowboy offensive line is ranked 4th in sack percentage at 4.43% and is top 10 in yards per completion at 10.5, but the Washington defense was very effective in getting to the quarterback. Washington’s 7.72% sack percentage and 59.92% completion percentage against was among the best in the league last season. Last season, pressure was effective against Dak Prescott as his 3.8% interception rate was one of the worst last season. The only issue is actually getting the pressure home, considering the Cowboys’ offensive line’s quality sack rate. The fact that Dallas does not appear to have the dominant runner and run blocking that they did in years past is the potential weakness Washington can exploit to get the pressure home to Dak. Jack Del Rio will not likely have to scheme against a dominant or even dynamic run game and, if that does hold up, should have every opportunity to use his athletic edge rushers in schematically diverse ways. With the presence of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne in the middle collapsing the pocket, it very well could be a feast or famine day for the defensive front. Get home on the pass rush and rattle Dak creating good field position for the offense or Dak and his tandem of wide receivers in CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks could be a nightmare for the secondary.

Matchup Edge: Cowboys

Washington Offense vs Cowboys Defense

This matchup will rely on two key factors: 1) The defense handling their business as mentioned earlier and 2) Washington’s ability to establish the run against a susceptible rush defense. Yes, the latter goes without saying but Washington will be facing a defense ranked 3rd in sack percentage at 8.25%, ranked 9th in passer rating allowed at 83.6, and a now improved secondary that allowed 61.86% completion plus only 6.1 yards per attempt, ranked 8th and 7th respectively. This is the prime reason to establish the run –  the Cowboys’ pass rush attacking a Washington offensive line that is ranked 25th in sack percentage at 7.97% and the league average yards per attempt of 10.1 is not a great matchup for a young quarterback like Sam Howell. Howell has mobility and Eric Bieniemy has showing multiple looks and misdirection plays to Howell moving during camp. However, it will be tough to contain Micah Parsons, especially with the secondary he will now have behind him. The one positive that I am not going to fully account for here is that last year in week 18, Howell was exceptional in feeling the Cowboys’ pressure and navigating the pocket. It is fair to say that very well can repeat itself, but do not discount the ability of Dallas’ defensive coordinator Dan Quinn to adjust to any tendencies and/or weaknesses he sees in Howell’s game too. Basically, too many scenarios would have to play out just right for Washington to win this matchup.  Therfore, Dallas clearly has this edge.

Matchup Edge: Cowboys

Conclusion

To those of you who stayed around to read this and not leave in annoyance to call me a closet Cowboy fan, thank you. I promise that will offer some solace here. Breaking down this matchup and considering the important advantages one team may have over another, yes the Cowboys certainly outclass Washington in nearly all phases of the game. What Bieniemy will have to scheme will require near-perfect execution offensively, while the defense only has a few windows of opportunity. Trust me I don’t see this as a runaway for the Cowboys, as both games should maintain a fairly good competitive level through most of the game. It’s just if the execution is not there offensively the defense will be worn down by the 4th quarter, which will allow the Cowboys a chance to potentially break open the game. Here is where some hope comes: it’s again having a week 18 matchup. There will be a high probability Dallas will have the playoffs clinched, with nothing to play for, thus allowing a Washington team, a clear edge to win the final game of the season, especially if Washington is vying for a wild card position. Granted, I believe Washington will run out of gas prior to this game and be eliminated from the playoffs, but I will play the optimistic side and say that these teams will split their two matchups.