Washington 2023 Season Outlook: Concerns, Keys and Expectations

Posted on September 6, 2023 by Dave

September 6, 2023

by David Earl

Quick Recount

For the last several weeks I wrote a week-to-week matchup review and gave this team a ceiling of 8 wins (overly optimistic 9 wins) which many won’t agree. The main driving factor in my prediction of an 8-win season is the offensive line and the concerns that we all should have heading into the season. To be completely honest, Ron Rivera did not do nearly enough to rectify an offensive line that statistically ranked near the bottom in most categories last season. The acquisition of Andrew Wylie at right tackle and moving Sam Cosmi into right guard seems to have worked great for Cosmi as he looks more natural inside. His athleticism and power are a much better fit against the defensive tackles whereas he struggled mightily against the more athletic edge rushers. Therefore, the ripple effect of the Wylie signing was a positive, but Wylie himself has only been a moderate improvement over Cosmi at right tackle. Wylie was penalized early while inconsistent in holding blocks thus far.

At left guard, Saahdiq Charles not only has to show that he can stay healthy, but consistent as well. Charles Leno is a solid steady player at left tackle and Nick Gates is still finding his way back after serious injuries derailing his career to this point. This preseason showed some optimism by many in this group, but the reality thus far is a quick passing game and opposing defenses not running their regular season schemes does not give a true gauge of this offensive line. Maybe the moves will be enough and I will have to write an column to recant every negative evaluation I have given (I’d gladly eat crow on this one), but time will reveal the truth and I just don’t share the optimism.

Sam Howell

Needless to say, Sam Howell‘s preseason ended with very productive numbers completing 75.7% of his passes for 265 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 122, but that is also an unsustainable stat line. What can be sustained is his continued growth under Eric Bieniemy that he’s shown so far. It’s been a development many should feel optimistic about. Earlier I talked about what Sam’s production could look like in a 55% pass heavier scheme with a focus on a 62% completion percentage among other calculations – you can see that fully here. Sticking with those calculations and adjusting for the development and command over the offense we have seen, Sam’s new projections could very well look like this:

Sam Howell 2023 Projections
Total Passing Line
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
366	573	3,916	64%	33
Play Action (PA) Plays
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
97	152	1037	64%	9
Run/Pass Option (RPO) Plays
Comp.	Att.	Yards	Comp%	TD
71	111	759	64%	7
RushAtt		Rushing Yards		TD
12		50		3

So what changes did I make? To start with his completion percentage took a moderate hike from 62% to 64% (his college career number) as the 75.7% is just an unrealistic expectation at this time. While he had an 8.1 touchdown percentage in the preseason, again I took a more moderate increase from the previously projected 5.2% up to a more reasonable (maybe a bit low) 5.9% touchdown rate that increased his touchdown passes from a total of 30 to 33 for the season. I kept the RPO and play action the same but incorporated the same percentage rate changes as Bieniemy will certainly have to keep Howell on the move throughout the game. Of course, these numbers remain moderate because of the offensive line and the lack of confidence I maintain in this unit. So if they prove that I am foolish in my assessment then Sam could put together a season Washington fans have not seen in quite some time if his growth and development continue to be positive.

The Running Backs

Again I will call back to a previous column of mine on how the running backs could be used in Eric Bieniemy‘s scheme. Not much has changed here as Antonio Gibson will play the role of the primary pass catcher and Brian Robinson Jr. will carry the heavy load between the tackles.

Brian Robinson Jr: 868 yards rushing (42% of the team total) and, like Pacheco, receiving 13% of the position group targets (14 targets).
Antonio Gibson: 56 receptions of 71 targets (65% of position group total) for 431 yards while maintaining roughly 25% of the team’s total rushing yards getting approximately 517 yards on the ground.

Chris Rodriguez is a wild card added to this mix, as his preseason average was 7.18 yards per carry. The number that better shows what Washington may have here is 6.06 yards per carry average. You take away his longest run of 25 yards, and he tallied 97 yards off 16 attempts. Those are steady numbers you want from a running back. I mention this because last season you saw a 7th round pick in Isiah Pacheco take over for an ineffective Clyde Edwards-Helaire, a former 1st round pick, and never relinquished the job. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry in 11 starts and was a key complement to Jerick McKinnon during the Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl run. This is not to say Brian Robinson Jr will be unseated by Chris Rodriguez but, if Robinson is ineffective, Bieniemy will not hesitate to lean more on him if necessary.

Jahan Dotson and Cole Turner

In the passing game, we all know who and what Terry McLaurin is, along with the impact on the offense he presents. The two key elements for everything to work, in my opinion, is the play of Jahan Dotson and Cole Turner. Dotson has already shown this preseason just how much Sam Howell trusts Dotson, and that speaks to the game he brings as a wide receiver. Dotson, as his scouting report suggests, is a tactician of a route runner capable of running a single route at 3 variances of speed and approach. His adjustments in the game to the opposing corners create opportunities late in the game that will assist Howell greatly especially with his ability to separate down the field. The compliment he showed in his rookie campaign to McLaurin, catching 35 of 61 targets for 523 yards and 7 touchdowns, makes this offense potentially explosive. While many project this as a breakout year for Dotson, it is Cole Turner who may just be the most vital piece for Sam Howell and Bieniemy’s offense. In Kansas City Travis Kelce accounted for 24% of Patrick Mahomes‘ 648 pass attempts, which was 152 targets, and was a significant piece for the intermediate passing zones. The idea that the trio of wide receivers will help offset the lack of a true viable tight end is underselling the importance. One aspect of Kelce’s game is the constant mismatch on the field, whether it’s against an undersized slot corner or a linebacker assigned to cover him underneath. This forces defenses to alter coverage schemes enough to either open up the running game and take some of the load off the offensive line or create open passing lanes downfield for the wide receivers. If Turner can play to even a modest level compared to Kelce that will then open up the game for this wide receiver group filled with talent. With how Turner produced thus far in the offseason and these preseason games, there is some optimism he can potentially do just that. What would both Dotson’s and Turner’s numbers look like for this offense to fully take off?

Jahan Dotson: While Terry McLaurin will most likely garner the majority of target percentage from Sam Howell, I don’t see Dotson too far behind. The 24% target share Travis Kelce received from Mahomes is reasonable to think that will be ultimately McLaurin’s realistic range for targets. Using that and considering what Cole Turner may receive in targets plus my projected 14% targets going to the running backs, that leaves approximately 56% of Howell’s 573 pass attempts unaccounted for. For Dotson, I would expect to see a target range of around 21%, which would be 120 targets. I suspect Dotson’s catch percentage will improve in year 2 so using a catch percentage of 64% of 120 targets gives him 77 receptions. Sticking with his 14.9 yards per reception last season, I project his final stat line being 77 receptions off 120 targets and 1,147 yards with a touchdown range of between 9 and 12. This is where Dotson needs to be for this offense to be explosive . These are actually realistic numbers for him to achieve if he stays healthy.
Cole Turner: Using a more modest target rate of 18% of Sam Howell’s pass attempts, this is a stat line I project for this offense to succeed. Of the 573 projected pass attempts, Turner would need to see 103 targets. To be effective his catch rate would need to be about 64% and averaging approximately 10 yards per reception, which is a rough average of top 5 tight ends. Taking all this into account Cole Turner’s stat line for the 2023 season would need to look something like 66 receptions off 103 targets and over 650 receiving yards, plus anywhere from 6-9 touchdowns.

Conclusion

As you see much of my potential projections above hinge on not just the development of Sam Howell but the performance of this offensive line. If this unit has a repeat of the 2022 season where they ranked 28th in yards per carry average at 4.0 and 25th in sack percentage at 7.97%, then Howell may not have the time nor a good run game to lean on to even get the ball consistently into his playmaker’s hands. The essential neglect of building this offensive line will be this team’s biggest hurdle this season and could very well cost not only Ron Rivera’s job but also Howell’s loss of a season of development. If I am wrong, then great and I will happily eat crow, figuratively, but the lack of confidence in this offensive line is why I give this team an 8-win ceiling with an overly optimistic 9-win season at best. So as they enter week one and most likely trounce Arizona, which projects as one of the worst teams in the NFL, keep the excitement tempered until a few weeks later after the back-to-back Bills and Eagles game. At that point, we will have a much better understanding of what this team is and whether or not I look foolish after this column.