Game Preview, Week 1: Eagles at Redskins
by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte
I’m going to scream this in my very best twangy-country voice: ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!! Sorry, nevermind, that’s a copyrighted Hank Williams song, and now ESPN and Hank are probably going to sue us. My apologies. Look, the point is that after a long and drama-heavy offseason, our beloved Washington Redskins are finally back in live action this Sunday afternoon against the hated Philadelphia Eagles at Fed Ex Field in Raljon Landover. Since it’s Philly, one can expect a healthy dose of, let’s see… Eagles fans of questionable moral boundaries…to invade the friendly confines – if you come across them, please take the high road and don’t stoop to their level. We’re better than that. Regarding the game, though: it isn’t exactly a secret that Jay Gruden’s teams have been, how do I say this, awful, in the early going, so the Redskins look to reverse this trend against an Eagles team that features an improving Carson Wentz at the helm. Nobody, including Vegas, believes in the Redskins right now considering all that’s gone on in recent months (frankly, who can blame them), and that lack of belief is reflected in the fact that the oddsmakers listed the Redskins as home underdogs at the time of this writing. Let’s be honest here – the Redskins didn’t exactly inspire confidence during the preseason, so the team, particularly the offense, has quite a bit to prove. Can the new receiving duo of Terrelle Pryor and Josh Docston replicate the production of the departed Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson? Can Robert Kelley and the running game produce consistent positive yardage? Can Kirk Cousins get back his 2016 mojo that seemed absent during the preseason? Can the defensive line, led by rookie Jonathan Allen, improve on the hot, steaming pile of garbage that was 2016? We hope so. Here’s our game preview.
Game time & location: Sunday, September 10, 1:00 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Raljon, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Kenny Albert, Ronde Barber, Kristina Pink
DC-area radio: ESPN 980
Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html
Eagles radio network: http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/schedules/tunein.html
Satellite radio: XM: 83 (Redskins broad.); Sirius: 83 (Redskins broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml
Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html
Eagles roster: http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/roster.html
Eagles depth chart: http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/team/depth-chart.html
All-time head-to-head record vs Eagles: 85 – 74 – 6 (last 10: 7 – 3)
Last meeting: W, Dec 11, 2016, 27 – 22
Early odds: Eagles, -1
SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE VICTORY
Keep the Eagles on the Ground
All of us at the Hog Sty predicted a week one win against the Eagles, but we may be selling Philly short. It’s worth noting the trajectory of both team’s receiving corps; the Redskins arguably downgraded in the offseason while the Eagles upgraded. Alshon Jeffrey – formerly of Chicago – loves to torch this team. Torrey Smith is just begging for us to forget about him. Don’t let them fly free through the backfield.
Kirk Must Outplay Wentz
Of course, having some nice toys won’t mean much for Philly if Carson Wentz doesn’t have his shit together. 16 TDs and 14 INTs were the final numbers on his statline last year…oof ouch owie. He did show real promise as a rookie though – you’re foolish to think otherwise – setting franchise records for completions and pass attempts, and he looked awesome in the preseason, certainly better than Kirk has. Speaking of which, sure would be nice to see some signs of life there. We’ll see which way the wind blows him this week.
Someone will run the ball…I’m almost positive
Which running back should you not get excited for this week? Smart money’s on Rob Kelley, Chris Thompson, and Samaje Perine all seeing carries. Like Kirk, they haven’t impressed through the preseason, and you’re probably not feeling great about last year’s 21st-place finish on the ground. As always, if the running game gels, pressure comes off our newly minted receivers and the whole thing gets easier.
I’m willing to venture a bet that the Redskins offense will hinge on the production of these two players this year. When they have good games, so will the team. When they don’t show up, nothing else will matter. There’s going to be extra pressure on Reed as the most dependable set of hands on this team. Let’s hope he stays true to form, and Pryor gets on the same page with Kirk.
Momentum
One thing this team can’t do? Come out sluggish. Washington’s M.O. in years past is: take to the field, offer an immediate three-and-out, get a random field goal somehow, and continue to rinse/repeat through the first half. No need to go crazy fellas, just get a first down or two on your first possession to wake this offense up from hibernation. Better yet, COME AWAY WITH POINTS.
SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUP
Blount and Sproles vs. Redskins Front 7
Remember Sproles? When we’re not committing atrocious penalties against him, he’s pretty darn good. Blount is fresh off a league-leading 18 TD year and Super Bowl win. Compounding this problem are high-level guys like Lane Johnson and Jason Peters along Philly’s offensive line.
Wentz and Co. vs. Redskins DBs
DJ Swearinger is still the most notable addition to the defensive backfield this offseason — a guy who’s known as a more of a hard hitting run-stopper than someone who excels in space. Let’s see how well we can hold an Eagles offense with lots of offseason additions.
Kirk and Jay vs. The Ghosts of Kirk and Jay Past
There are other matchups worth bringing up, but I don’t think it matters. At the end of the day, despite a lackluster preseason, I believe the Redskins are a better team than the Eagles. And we better hope that’s true, since Eagles games are among this year’s most winnable matchups. The opportunities will be there. Question is, will Kirk miss a wide-open Pryor or Crowder? Will Jay abandon the rushing attack and get one-dimensional? Will we commit atrocious penalties that undo all the good? We’ll see.
Sean Cuts to the Chase
What can I say? This is the first game of the season, so I’m going macro with it. In an era where the Redskins have desperately needed an identity, they’ve been decidedly ‘meh’. Washington’s weaknesses could not have been more clear last year, and yet we enter this season with much of the same uncertainties. Will the defense be better? Probably, a bit. Will the offense roll as well as it did in 2016? I doubt it.
We got 8 wins last year. I’m predicting 6 in 2017. One of those will likely come next week against Philadelphia. Just don’t think it’ll be decisive or anything.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday) (active roster only) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice NIR – not injury related
Q – questionable O – Out
| Redskins | Eagles |
| LB R. Anderson, stinger/neck; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game = Q | QB N. Foles, right elbow; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| WR J. Docston, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | LB N. Goode, forearm; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| LB J. Galette, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | S C. Graham, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| C S. Long, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game = Q | DE B. Graham, triceps; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| S M. Nicholson, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | LB J. Hicks, quadricep; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| WR J. Crowder, hip; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game = Q | CB J. Mills, thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DT D. Vaeao, calf; Wed: FP ; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
A discussion about relating the Redskins 2016 offensive statistics to week 1 of the 2017 season comes with the huge, massive caveat that wide receivers Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson are no longer here. Whether the Redskins can put up passing numbers are good as they did in 2016 is therefore something of an open question. Other than this, the single most important statistic the Redskins must improve on the offensive side of the ball is red zone efficiency. There’s no other way to say it: the 2016 Redskins were one of the very worst teams in the NFL inside the 20 (ranked 30th). Their failure to score touchdowns, instead having to settle for field goals, without a doubt cost them wins last year and, considering how the season ended, most likely a playoff spot. If the Redskins can at least get into the same general ballpark of passing numbers as they did in 2016, but improve their red zone efficiency even a little bit, the offense will once again be successful. However, if the passing numbers dip due to the changes in personnel, and red zone efficiency doesn’t get better, 2017 could end up being a long season.
Statistically, what jumps out of the page about the 2016 Redskins defense is the large number of yards surrendered and the atrocious play on third down. The Redskins ended the season as the worst team in the entire NFL at third down defense. The Redskins hope that their revamped defensive line will make big strides in both areas. If the defensive line shows signs of life early, things might get noticably better; however, if we see a repeat of last season right from the get-go in terms of the defense’s ability to get off the field quickly, the season could get ugly, fast. The interesting thing about the 2016 defensive statistics is that, in spite of being awful on both third downs and at run stoppage, the team was only ranked 19th in total points surrendered, which means that the Redskins did eventually get off the field, just not in an efficient manner. This is reflected in the time of possession statistic, at which the Redskins were ranked 22nd.
Record 0 – 0 (2016: 8 – 7 – 1; Home: 4 – 4; NFC East: 3 – 3)
All-time franchise record: 586 – 572 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings (2016) | 12 (points) / 3 (total yards) / 3 (yards per game) (trend even) / 2 (yards per play) / 2 (passing yards) / 2 (passing yards per att.) / 21 (rushing yards) / 7 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for (2016) | 396 |
| Yards per game (2016) | 403.4 |
| Passing (2016)
|
607 att (7th); 407 comp; 67.1% comp per. (5th); 8.2 Y/A; 4758 net yds; 25 TD; 12 Int |
| Passing leader (2016) | Cousins (606 att (6th), 4917 yds (3rd), 67.0% comp perc., 25 TDs / 12 Int (15th-most), 97.2 QB rating (7th)) |
| Receiving leader (2016) | Garcon (1041 yds, 79 rec (22nd), 3 TDs, 31.2 Y/C); Jackson (1005 yds, 56 rec, 4 TDs, 17.9 Y/C (1st)) |
| Rushing (2016) | 379 att (27th); 1658 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 106.0 Y/G; 17 TD |
| Rushing leader (2016) | Kelley (168 att (25th), 704 yds (24th), 6 TD, 4.2 Y/A (19th), long 66) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank (2016) | 23 / 4 |
| Ave time of possession / rank (2016) | 29:32 / 22 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank (2016) | 45.2 % / 5 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank (2016) | 45.9 % / 30 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings (2016) | 19 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 28 (yards per game surrendered) / 24 (yards per play) / 25 (passing yards) / 21 (passing yards per att.) / 24 (rushing yards) / 25 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against (2016) | 383 |
| Yards per game surrendered (2016) | 377.9 |
| Opponent’s passing (2016) | 589 att (22nd); 387 comp; 65.7% comp perc. (29th); 7.4 Y/A; 4130 net yds; 22 TD; QB Rating 91.1 (20th) |
| Opponent’s rushing (2016) | 423 att (19th); 1916 yds; 4.5 Y/A; 19 TD; 119.8 Y/G (24th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader (2016) | 38 / 9 / Kerrigan (11.0) |
| Tackles leader (2016) | Foster (88) |
| Int / rank / Int leader (2016) | 13 / 12 / Norman, Breeland (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank (2016) | 46.63% / 32 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank (2016) | 59.26% / 25 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns (2016) | 21.1 Y/R (20th), 27 returns, long 45 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns (2016) | 11.9 Y/R (4th), 29 returns, long 85 yards (2nd), 1 TD |
| Kick return defense (2016) | 21.4 Y/R (14th), 25 returns, 1 TD |
| Punt return defense (2016) | 8.2 Y/R (11th), 27 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting (2016) | 45.1 Y/P (18th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank) (2016): 21 / 21 / 0 / 17
Penalties (total accepted # / rank) (2016): 110 / 16
Eagles:
Statistically, the 2016 Eagles’ offense was mediocre. They neither excelled in anything nor were terrible in anything. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz threw quite a few passes (5th-most in the NFL), and had a decent completion percentage; however, the reason for his 62.4% completion percentage was that his passes were short – in fact, 30th in the NFL at just 6.2 yards per attempt. His quarterback rating was not good, primarily as a result of his TD/Int ratio being just 16/14. Wentz had a good preseason, statistically, so expect him to make strides in year 2, whether in game 1 or later in the year. The 2016 Eagles were also a mediocre rushing team, 11th in the NFL in total rushing yards and just 18th in yards per attempt. LaGarette Blount is new to the fold this year, so at a minimum, he will present a different look. Oddly, despite ranking just 16th in points, the Eagles were actually the top team in the NFL in average time of possession but only 24th in red zone efficiency. So, if last year is a guide, the Redskins defense should expect a host of short, ball-control passes and a rushing attack designed to keep the ball but which will ultimately fail prior to scoring. Hopefully, at least.
Similar to the Eagles’ offense, the Philly 2016 defense was also mediocre, excelling in defended the red zone (ranked third), but little else. This defense ranked in the middle of the pack in almost every other major statistical category, neither good nor terrible in anything.
Somewhat strangely, the 2016 Eagles did excel in special teams, boasting the NFL’s best kick return game, the second-best punt return game, and the second-best kick return defense.
Record: 0 – 0 (2016: 7 – 9; 4th; Away: 1 – 8; NFC East: 2 – 4)
Offense
| Offensive rankings (2016) | 16 (points) / 22 (total yards) / 20 (yards per game) / 28 (yards per play) / 24 (passing yards) / 30 (passing yards per att.) / 11 (rushing yards) / 18 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for (2016) | 367 |
| Yards per game (2016) | 337.4 |
| Passing (2016) | 609 att (6th); 380 comp; 62.4% comp per. (18th); 6.2 Y/A; 3585 net yds; 16 TD; 14 Int |
| Passing leader (2016) | Wentz (607 att (5th), 3782 yds (18th), 62.4% comp per., 16 TDs / 14 Int, 79.3 QB rating (25th)) |
| Reception leader (2016) | Ertz (816 yds (46th), 78 rec (24th), 4 TD, 10.5 Y/C) |
| Rushing (2016) | 438 att (10th); 1813 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 113.3 Y/G (11th); 16 TD |
| Rushing leader (2016) | Mathews (155 att (27th), 661 yds (25th), 8 TDs, 4.3 Y/A (15th), long 30 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank (2016) | 33 / 13 |
| Ave time of possession / rank (2016) | 32:31 / 1 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank (2015) | 37.9% / 20 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank (2016) | 49.09% / 24 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings (2016) | 12 (points) / 13 (total yards) / 12 (yards per game surrendered) / 19 (yards per play) / 13 (passing yards) / 19 (passing yards per att.) / 15 (rushing yards) / 16 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against (2016) | 331 |
| Yards per game surrendered (2016) | 342.8 |
| Opponent’s passing (2016) | 553 att (15th); 333 comp; 60.2% comp per. (5th); 7.3 Y/A; 3832 net yds; 25 TD; QB Rating 85.7 (11th) |
| Opponent’s rushing (2016) | 391 att (10th); 1652 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 10 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader (2016) | 34 / 16 / Cox (6.5) |
| Tackles leader (2016) | McLeod (68) |
| Int / rank / Int leader (2016) | 16 / 9 / Hicks (5) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank (2016) | 40.0%/ 19 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank (2016) | 45.1% / 3 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns (2016) | 27.3 Y/R (1st), 35returns, long 98 yards, 2 TDs |
| Punt returns (2016) | 12.9 Y/R (2nd), 19 returns, long 66 yards (8th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense (2016) | 18.7 Y/R (2nd), 38 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense (2016) | 8.1 Y/R (9th), 25 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting (2016) | 45.8 Y/P (13th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank) (2016): 20 / 26 / +6 /7
Penalties (total accepted # / rank) (2016): 113 / 11
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com