Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Changes Made Results The Same

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December 6, 2023

by David Earl

Changes Made Clearly Too Late

The first game after the firing of Jack Del Rio resulted in no improvement, but no rational person expected anything more. Plus, one week into the hire of Jim Salgado, did anyone expect the secondary to miraculously start locking down opposing wide receivers? Well, Tyreek Hill‘s two 60 yard+ touchdown strikes confirm that the answer was “no”, and to no one’s surprise. Entering this game Washington’s defense averaged:

Granted, it was an explosive Miami Dolphins team but Washington’s secondary didn’t even look like it belonged in the NFL against Miami. While Tua remained untouched throughout the game, with zero sacks and 2 quarterback hits, the fact that the wide receivers were essentially unabated in their routes is just inexcusable. This is not Jim Salgado’s fault, as the defensive coverage schemes are either too complex for the players to run, easily diagnosed by the opponent, or the players simply play out of position. I tend to believe it is a combination of all three but the lack of communication and execution has been the primary issue that falls on coaching at this juncture under Ron Rivera. The defense is just the start of this roster Rivera constructed.

As I covered in detail a couple of weeks ago, Ron Rivera has built a team that just cannot consistently compete at any level. The biggest issue that plagues this team is the approach Rivera, the general manager, has taken toward the offensive line and linebacker groups. When a defense like Miami, whose defense ranks 5th in sack percentage (9.28%), lines up against this offensive line what’s to be expected? Sam Howell faced pressure much of the game that resulted in 3 sacks and 9 additional quarterback hits. As a result, Washington was unable to take advantage of a Miami defense that is ranked 26th in completion percentage allowed (67.33%). Also, Howell couldn’t manage to get a quarterback rating above 60 against a defense that allows opposing quarterbacks an average rating of 89.3. So when Eric Bieniemy is unable to exploit the one aspect of Miami’s defense that was susceptible, it makes it that much more difficult to open up running lanes against their 7th-ranked rush defense in yards per carry average, at 3.9.

Back to the defense, especially the linebackers – Rivera may have shown his greatest neglect at this position. While the offensive line may very well be the most important aspect of building a roster, you don’t have a championship-level defense without an anchor at the linebacker position. Just a few examples of linebackers who anchor championship-level defenses:

  • Fred Warner: San Francisco is ranked 2nd in points allowed at 189, 7th in overall quarterback pressures, a rush defense that allows 3.9 yards per attempt, and allowed an average of 294.4 yards per game (ranked 5th).
  • Roquan Smith: Baltimore is ranked 1st in points allowed at 187, 8th in overall quarterback pressures, a rush defense that allows 4.3 yards per attempt and allowed an average of 273.9 yards per game (ranked 2nd)
  • Micah Parsons: Dallas is ranked 3rd in points allowed at 220, 18th in overall quarterback pressures, a rush defense that allows 4.1 yards per attempt, and allowed an average of 287.1 yards per game (ranked 3rd)

Granted, each of these defenses has some level of susceptibility but the ultimate number to focus on is the points allowed, which are all among the best in the league. These players anchor defenses that are all championship-contending teams, which is something Washington just does not have today. Even though Jamin Davis has played better this year, improving each year in pass coverage and pass rush production, his numbers show a complimentary-type player to the linebackers mentioned above. But where it gets egregious is the depth behind Davis, which is just abysmal. Cody Barton has been unproductive across the board and was a downgrade from Cole Holcomb. David Mayo is excellent against the run but it stops there, as his best role is special teams. Khaleke Hudson is a solid one-dimensional pass coverage linebacker who struggles against the smaller slot receivers. So, even as the defensive line applied good pressure most of the year, the middle zone of the field was completely exposed by Miami’s quick passing game, which mitigated any pass rush.

To go into any more detail would be just regurgitating what I’ve written about before on this roster construction. It is prevalent, as Rivera has yet to produce a winning season in his 4th year as head coach and general manager. Just look at the following clips of left tackle Charles Leno Jr., left guard Chris Paul, and right tackle Andrew Wylie; they are just examples from this past week of how this offensive line has been all season. Enough of showing these PFF stats – they are very subjective and not the actual reality of what we see on the field. Bieniemy’s poor playcalling and Howell’s inconsistencies only compound the offensive issues even more. Pure and simple, Rivera failed in this coach-centric approach as he was completely in over his head and the organization has suffered more for this. This roster may be worse off today than when he first took over 4 years ago.

 

What Say You About Sam Howell

Is Sam Howell the answer? We have no true idea.  That question is potentially to be answered by a new incoming general manager. What we do know is that Howell is a young quarterback with many traits with which a future head coach can work. However, will his inconsistencies override those traits?. This is where he ranks among his peers as of this season:

  • 1st in completions (335)
  • 14th in completion percentage (65.8%)
  • 2nd in passing yards (3,466)
  • 12th in touchdown passes (18)
  • 1st in interceptions thrown (14)
  • 19th at success pass rate (43.9%), which is successful passing yards thrown (per pass) to gain a first down
  • 25th in yards per completion (10.3)
  • 22nd in quarterback rating (85.6) and 21st in total QBR (47.9)
  • 30th in net passing yards per attempt (5.42)
  • Sacked the most by far (58)

While the completions and passing yards are great numbers to lean on, they are the result of the high volume of pass attempts in this offense. While the touchdown pass and completion percentage both being among the top 20 are solid numbers for his first year, it’s the other categories that are concerning. Some categories are dictated by scheme plus protection, such as  yards per completion, net yards per attempt, and much of the sacks throughout the year. Coaching adjustments and development of Howell’s in-game reads will certainly allow his development to progress in these categories. It’s the other numbers that become more concerning when when considering him as a potential franchise quarterback. To put this more into perspective, let’s look at some quarterbacks’ rookie year stats and how Howell may compare.

  • Dak Prescott: His success rate was nearly 10 points higher at 52.3% and his quarterback rating was much higher at 104.9 his rookie season. He also had a higher net passing yards per attempt at 7.28 while throwing far fewer interceptions, with 4.
  • Russell Wilson: His success was closer to that of Howell, at 48.1% but Wilson still managed a higher quarterback rating, at 100. Wilson’s net passing yards per attempt was a full yard more while only throwing 10 interceptions in his rookie year. What differentiates Wilson from Howell and thus makes up for his low success rate is his mobility. Wilson averaged 5.2 yards per rush compared to Sam’s 3.1.  That added a dynamic that Howell doesn’t nearly bring.
  • Daniel Jones: This is where cautious optimism needs to come into play. Jones’ success rate was 41%, and he had a quarterback rating of 87.7. Their net passing yards per attempt were nearly identical, as Jones finished his rookie season at 5.5. While Howell finished at a lower completion percentage, 61.9%, Jones wasn’t throwing interceptions at the same high rate. Jones’s interception percentage was 2.6% his rookie year compared to Howell’s 5.2% rate this season.

The purpose of this was not to disagree with the premise of keeping Howell and building around him as many fans feel but to approach this with objectivity. Focusing on just a few stat categories does a great disservice to his overall production, which inflates the believe that he is guy the team can win with going forward. While he very well can be that guy, the reality of him also being another Daniel Jones also exists. This will be for the new incoming front office to determine Howell’s true worth and, with what is provided above, whether considering one of these top quarterbacks in the draft is the correct direction. We all agree that protection up front by the offensive line is very important going into the offseason, and that’s where the tough decision has to be made. Should they keep Howell and draft the top offensive tackle available or take what many may see as a true franchise quarterback with the first pick? If the latter decision is made then player evaluation needs to be near perfect to begin rebuilding an offensive line that can keep a rookie quarterback upright. It’s a decision that Ron Rivera’s current front office team cannot be allowed to make.