Burgundy & Gold Reaction: Is Sam Howell In Future Plans?

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December 20, 2023

by David Earl

Officially Eliminated

The slim hopes of the postseason that most rational fans knew was over weeks ago have officially been squashed. I will not even entertain what Jacoby Brissett did in relief of Sam Howell and discuss whether Eric Bieniemy‘s scheme has been that bad or if Howell was holding his offense back. That conversation is moot at this time as every indication is that owner Josh Harris will clean house following the final game of the season. Some early indications are Josh Harris favors how the Baltimore Ravens handle their organization. While there aren’t any hard-confirming reports yet, it makes sense with the hiring of Eugene Shen as senior vice president of football strategy. He worked for Baltimore as a leader of their analytics department from 2014 to 2019 and is highly respected around the league.

That was the first of many dominoes that could fall which could lead to the hiring of Joe Hortiz (Director of Player Personnel, Baltimore Ravens) or Ian Cunningham (Asst. GM, Chicago Bears formerly with the Ravens organization). I covered both here as potential top candidates for Harris this coming offseason. So when the decision is official Ron Rivera will be let go? When the new regime takes over, where does this potentially leave Sam Howell? What kind of roster turnover could we all see?

Blank Check for New Regime

Michael Phillips made some great points here which resonate to be true. The primary point is the new regime cannot be tied down to Howell like Jay Gruden was with RGIII and Ron Rivera with Dwayne Haskins. While I am not going to revisit those scenarios, the fact that Dan Snyder influenced those quarterback decisions like he did put each coach behind the 8-ball right from the start. This is a meddling decision I am confident Harris will not do, as John Keim eluded. I covered this issue here in the offseason. Harris will certainly want to structure the front office so that any major football decisions that need to be made can remain as far away as possible to make.

That is the one aspect the Philadelphia media does have right about him is his reluctance to make a tough decision, which can be good and bad. The shining light here is when you saw that change somewhat – when he bought the New Jersey Devils there was a sense he learned from his mistakes in his early ownership of the Philadelphia 76ers. Now, let’s get back to the first point which is the quarterback position and, more specifically, Howell’s status going forward:

So in this small poll fans still don’t believe they have not seen enough of Howell to determine if he is a franchise quarterback. Honestly, it’s tough to gauge a first-year starter, but what do the numbers say thus far? In this previous column, I warned fans about putting Howell on a pedestal, as his numbers have been more comparable to Daniel Jones thus far than other, more successful quarterbacks. The three most significant categories between them were similar numbers in both success pass rate and overall quarterback rating, while Howell was much worse in interception percentage (5.2% compared to Jones’s 2.6%). So looking at his trends this season you will see more inconsistencies than you’d like to see even for a first-year starter.

When you separate his games the disparity of his numbers can be alarming. Again I understand it is his first year as a starter but the reality of a potential franchise quarterback available in the first round next season is very high. So Howell will be heavily scrutinized this offseason fair or not and the following numbers will surely figure into the decision.

Seven-game stretch: The Good

  • Average completion percentage of 68.2% and 360.3 yards passing per game
  • His TD-to-interception ratio was 2.6:1 with an excellent TD percentage of 6.85%
  • 8.4 yards per attempt while averaging 12.4 yards per completion
  • Averaged 4.3 sacks per game with a sack percentage of 10.2%
  • Over this stretch, his quarterback rating averaged 122.2

Four-game stretch: The Mediocre

  • Average completion percentage of 61.5% and 251.7 yards passing per game
  • His TD-to-interception ratio was .5:1.5 with a TD percentage of 1.35%
  • 6.2 yards per attempt while averaging 10.2 yards per completion
  • Averaged 5 sacks per game with a sack percentage of 11.3%
  • Over this stretch, his quarterback rating averaged 68.8

Three-game stretch: The Bad

  • Average completion percentage of 53.3% and 133 yards passing per game
  • His TD-to-interception ratio was .33:2 with a TD percentage of 1.2%
  • 5.1 yards per attempt while averaging 9.6 yards per completion
  • Averaged 4.3 sacks per game with a sack percentage of 12.9%
  • Over this stretch, his quarterback rating averaged 47.5

As we see when Howell was good he was among the best in the league: he completed 68.2% of his passes, minimized his interceptions, and produced a quarterback rating of well over 100. These seven games no doubt showed that Howell has the tools to build a solid team around him even though his sack rate was above 10%. I won’t fully break down the issues in his release time and the terrible offensive line he had for protection because both deficiencies wound up being a disastrous combination. In these games, regardless of the issues in sack rate, his yards per completion (12.4) and his 6.85% touchdown percentage helped produce 26.7 points per game. If not for the fact that Washington had one of the league’s worst defenses, these stats could have easily resulted in another win or two more than the three they ended with. This stretch of game truly makes Howell’s  evaluation very interesting. His performance showed plenty of positive tools to build around and the new general manager will have to determine if this outweighs the negative.

Projecting to draft #4 overall, Washington will now have to assess if Sam Howell’s most recent trend over the last 4 games defines who he is. There is still time left for Howell to show more improvement, but what does his performance show as of today? In these last 4 games, Howell averaged a 56.8% completion percentage and a 1.5% touchdown percentage. In addition, his interception percentage more than doubled to 4.2%.  Over these last four games, he’s managed a quarterback rating over 70 only once, and averaged just 59.4. It is a concerning trend. Even with a more improved offensive line I am not fully convinced he is that much better. Howell’s inconsistent progressions through his reads have led to a slow release time. He’s also made very poor decisions at times. Unfortunately, these decisions have certainly outweighed the decisive quick delivery we’ve  sporadically seen this season.

Have I Seen Enough?

Part of this organization’s history is just how well they know how to ruin and run through young quarterbacks. It is a history we should not tie to the new ownership but it is also something that has left a terrible stain on this team that is hard to ignore. I am on board with whatever the new general manager wants – that’s the direction I am 100% behind. Putting on my irrelevant armchair general manager hat, if “your guy” is in reach to draft then you make that move and draft a new quarterback. The quarterback position is far too important to do otherwise.  It’s not like Howell has put up overwhelming numbers or consistently produced “wow” moments. Please stop with the “Peyton Manning had 28 interceptions” his rookie year, as he not only was the number one overall pick but had the pedigree to go with his name.

While Washington’s offensive line is awful, and the team will be in a position to draft a top offensive tackle, if this new front office can evaluate effectively they can still construct a line that can be very effective. Remember when Washington had tackles Chris Samuels and Trent Williams anchoring all those championship-level teams over the years? Neither do I. The team should get their quarterback, if he’s there, and then build the trenches through the draft and free agency. So yes, if the right quarterback is obtainable, I have seen enough of Howell at this point of the season and am ready to bring in a franchise quarterback who they contractually control over the next 5 years.

Note: Stats are all taken from profootballreference.com