2024 Road to the Draft – Part 4

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February 7, 2023

By Noonefromtampa

Team Updates

Dan Quinn was named as Washington’s head coach, with Kliff Kingbury as the offensive coordinator and Al Whitt Jr. as the defensive coordinator. Along with Adam Peters as the new general manager, the re-vamp of the organization at the top tiers is mostly complete. Now, the front office and coaching staff must work together to overhaul the roster which means finding players who fit the style of play and new schemes that Washington will be running.

Draft Data

The mock draft count is 133 this week up 9 from last week. The Commanders will have the 2nd overall pick in the first round.  The position picked by descending frequency is:

Position Picked Count Picked % Last Week % % Change
QB 124 93.23% 95.16% -1.93%
OT 6 4.51% 4.03% 0.48%
Edge 1 0.75% 0.81% -0.05%
TE 1 0.75% 0.00% 0.75%
WR 1 0.75% 0.00% 0.75%
CB 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
IOL 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
DL 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
LB 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
RB 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
S 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grand Total 133 100%  

The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 2nd pick are in descending frequency:

Player Position School Picked Count Picked %
Drake Maye QB North Carolina 82 61.65%
Caleb Williams QB USC 29 21.80%
Jayden Daniels QB LSU 13 9.77%
Olumuyiwa Fashanu OT Penn State 4 3.01%
Joe Alt OT Notre Dame 2 1.50%
Brock Bowers TE Georgia 1 0.75%
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR Ohio State 1 0.75%
Laiatu Latu Edge UCLA 1 0.75%
Grand Total 133 100.00%

Drake Maye is the leader by nearly 3-to-1 over Caleb Williams with Jayden Daniels a distance third.

Thoughts

Washington holds the number 2 pick in the draft, but that doesn’t mean that is where they will draft. The are obviously three possible scenarios: stay put, move up to the first spot, or trade back. The factors that will influence that decision are outlined by these three questions:

  1. Whether the incoming coaching staff believes Sam Howell is the future at quarterback.
  2. How many of the roster needs were addressed during free agency.
  3. Will some team offer Washington a deal they can’t refuse to trade back?

If Howell is not the future, the most likely scenario is that the Commanders will stay at the second spot and draft the best quarterback available. A lot of pundits will read more into the Killf Kingsbury – Caleb Williams relationship at USC than what will actually impact who the Commanders will draft.

Some mockers are projecting Washington to trade up with Chicago to secure the first pick and Williams. The cost of that will not be cheap and likely involve at a minimum this year’s first round and one of the second-round picks, plus a 2025 pick, probably either first round or second pick.  Analytics will determine whether the value of a three player for one player move is prudent.  Often, the answer is not to trade up but to take the best player available for that position and if they don’t work out, try again.

For the Commanders fanbase, the issue is mainly one of perception. They yearn for a “franchise” level quarterback. With the ownership group seeking to re-engage the fanbase, they may feel pressure to make a splash move at quarterback to provide something exciting for the fanbase. In my opinion, it is more important to establish a solid, competitive roster than to make what is essentially a marketing move.

Currently, 7 mocks out of 133 have Washington trading the second overall pick. One has Washington trading down and six have the team trading up. The trade back got Washington from Minnesota a first, second and fifth round picks in 2024 and a first and third round picks in 2025. Trading up at a minimum cost Washington their first and second round picks this year and at worst a first, second and third round pick this year, along with a 2025 first round pick.

The trade back scenario comes into play if the new coaching staff believes they can win with Howell. If they do, the team could leverage that into several current and future year picks that could help transform the roster. Of course, they could stand pat and take Marvin Harrison Jr. at the second spot but with the number of holes on the roster the more likely scenario is a trade back.

Trading back would potentially still land the team a multi-year starter on the offensive line, tight end or edge rusher, all current needs. Additional picks would allow the team to address further needs and increase the number of players on the roster on on cap-friendly rookie deals.

 

Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthecap.com, sports-reference.com