Super Bowl LVIII Preview

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February 9, 2023

by Steve Thomas

Here we are, kids, Super Bowl LVIII, better known as the City Kansas Taylor Swifts versus the San Francisco Former Redskins.  In all seriousness, of the teams that were left in the playoffs, this was the NFL’s preferred matchup, by far: the NFL’s best quarterback making yet another appearance in the big game, with the star tight end and all of the Cult of Taylor folks who otherwise probably wouldn’t watch in tow, versus the big market California team featuring Mr. Irrelevant under center.  I’ll say it here first: the television ratings are going to be the highest in history.  Just get ready for an absolutely insufferable number of Kelce/Swift stories, references, and camera cuts.  From a football perspective, this has the possibility of being an outstanding game to watch, with both teams seemingly hitting on all cylinders.  If you can successfully avoid all of the nonsense, this should be a good night.  Our preview is below.

Playoff Seedings

AFC

  1. Baltimore Ravens (13 – 4; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Buffalo Bills (11 – 6; 1st, AFC East)
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (11 – 6; 1st, AFC West)
  4. Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
  5. Cleveland Browns (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC North)
  6. Miami Dolphins (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC East)
  7. Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC North)

NFC

  1. San Francisco 49ers (12 – 5; 1st, NFC West; homefield advantage and bye)
  2. Dallas Cowboys (12 – 5; 1st, NFC East)
  3. Detroit Lions (12 – 5; 1st, NFC North)
  4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9 – 8; 1st, NFC South)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (11 – 6; 2nd, NFC East)
  6. Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 2nd, NFC West)
  7. Green Bay Packers (9 – 8; 2nd, NFC North)

2024 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:

Super Bowl LVIII

Sunday, Feb. 11

6:30 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, Nevada (CBS, Univision, Nickelodeon, Paramount+, Vix, NFL+, NFL.com, NFL App)

Halftime Show – another horrible, lipsyched R&B act instead of something different because the NFL had to hire a washed-up rapper to program the halftime show  Usher

Game Preview

49ers (#1) (12 – 5) at Chiefs (#3) (11 – 6)  

Early line: 49ers, -2.5

The Chiefs were a bit of a disappointment during the regular season in some ways, at least by their lofty standards, in that they didn’t always look elite and lost a couple of games that they probably should’ve won.  They scored 371 points this season, ranked 15th.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes passed for 4183 yards, a 67.2% completion percentage, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, for a 92.6 quarterback rating.  Kansas City’s leading rusher was Isiah Pacheco, who rushed for 935 yards at an average of 4.6 yards per carry.  Mr. Taylor Swift, a/k/a Travis Kelce, was the leading receiver with 984 yards in 93 receptions.  Defensively, the Chiefs surrendered just 294 points, which was the second-least in the NFL behind the Ravens.  Opposing quarterbacks had a combined quarterback rating of 83.6, ranked 8th in the league.  They have a fairly bad rushing defense, with opposing teams having averaged 4.5 yards per carry, ranked 26th in the NFL.  However, the Chiefs have looked great in the post-season.  They defeated the Miami Dolphins by a score of 26 – 7 in their Wild Card game, then defeated the Bills 27 – 24 in Buffalo in the Divisional Round, then overcame the Baltimore Ravens on the road  by a score of 17 – 10 in the AFC title game.

San Francisco scored 491 points this season, which was ranked third in the NFL.  Mr. Irrelevant, quarterback Brock Purdy, played and started 16 games, with 308 completions in 444 attempts, for a 69.4% completion percentage, 4280 yards, 31 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 113.0 quarterback rating.  San Fransisco has three big-time receiving targets, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel.  Aiyuk had 75 receptions for 1342 yards, 17.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns.  Kittle had 65 receptions, 15.7 yards per receptions, and 6 touchdowns.  Samuel had 60 receptions for 892 yards, 14.9 yards per reception, and 7 touchdowns, plus another 37 carries for 225 yards, 6.1 yards per attempt, and 5 touchdowns.  The 49ers made the least number of pass attempts, and the 8th-most rushing attempts, in the league this season.  On defense, San Fransisco gave up 298 points this season, ranked 3rd.  Opposing offenses passed for an average 66.0% completion percentage, ranked 21st, and a 79.6 quarterback rating, ranked 4th.  The main reason for the disparity between their relatively high opposing completion percentage and their low quarterback rating is because they had 22 interceptions this season, tied for best in the NFL.  On the ground, opposing offenses averaged 4.1 yards per carry, ranked 14th.  The 49ers defeated the Packers by a score of 24 – 21 in the Divisional Round, then beat the Detroit Lions 34 – 31 in the NFC Conference Championship game.

The Chiefs and 49ers did not face each other in the regular season.

Steve’s prediction:

This is a very hard game to predict.  First, the Chiefs have played much better in the postseason than they did in the regular season, so the fact that San Francisco won one more game seems pretty irrelevant.  For the 49ers, the X-factor is Christian McCaffrey, as the Chiefs’ run defense wasn’t very good in the regular season.  Still, though it’s tough to bet against Kansas City given how they’ve performed in their two playoff games.  I think this game might be a classic matchup, a close, hard fought game that comes right down to the end.  I have to make a call, though, so I’m going with the Chiefs by a score of 24 – 20.