Let’s talk about Kliff Kingsbury

February 12, 2024

by Steve Thomas

Washington is currently in the midst of setting up its next coaching staff – new head coach Dan Quinn’s first hires were his defensive coordinator, Joe Whitt, Jr., and the offense coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury.  I’ll get back to Whitt another day, but today I want to focus on Kingsbury, as he’s a bit of a controversial pick for his position, and his varied background may not instantly lend itself to judgments about what we’re going to see from him.

Kingsbury, who is from Texas, began his football career at Texas Tech University, where he was the Red Raiders’ star quarterback from 1998 – 2002.  He was then drafted by the New England Patriots in round 6 of the 2003 draft.  He was placed on injured reserve with an arm injury for his rookie year, then waived prior to the start of the 2004 season.  Kingsbury then bounced between the Saints, Broncos, and Jets, before moving to NFL Europe for a year, followed by a stint with the Buffalo Bills during training camp.  He concluded his time as a player with a year in the Canadian Football League in 2007.  He was only active for one game in the NFL, in 2005 for the Jets, in which he completed 1 of 2 passes for 17 yards.

As a coach, Kingsbury was first hired by the University of Houston in 2008 as an offensive quality control coach.  He was promoted to offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2010 and stayed in that role through the 2011 season.  At that point, Texas A&M brought him onboard as their offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach.  That only lasted one season, when his alma mater, Texas Tech, named him as their head coach in 2013.  He stayed with the Red Raiders from 2013 to 2018, when the Arizona Cardinals hired him to be their head coach in 2019, the same year they drafted quarterback Kyler Murray.  The Cardinals fired Kingsbury after the 2022 season after the Cardinals suffered through a 4 – 13 effort.  At that point, he returned to the college ranks, at USC as a senior offensive analyst.

Kingsbury’s principal reputation was made as a quarterback at Texas Tech, where he became famous for the Red Raiders’ air raid offense, which featured a heavy vertical, wide-open passing attack with four wide receivers, with the quarterback out of the shotgun.  He continued with that same offense when he returned to Texas Tech as head coach.  It wasn’t a coincidence when Arizona hired him to coach a quarterback like Murray, who was the top overall draft pick in 2019.  The fact that Murray is extremely short and small by NFL standards lends itself to a shotgun-based offense, particularly given his mobility.  Arizona did feature a pass-heavy offense during those years, but they were by no means the tops by that statistic – they had 2384 pass attempts from 2019 – 2022, which was ranked 7th.  In contrast, they also had 1805 rush attempt over that time span, which was ranked 11th.  This was the Cardinals’ run/pass balance during Kingsbury’s tenure:

2019: 554 pass attempts (18th), 396 rushes (19th), 58% pass / 42% rush

2020: 575 pass attempts (15th), 479 rushes (6th), 55% pass / 45% rush

2021: 591 pass attempts (18th), 496 rushes (7th), 54% pass / 46% rush

2022: 664 pass attempts (4th), 434 rushes (19th), 60% pass / 40% rush

The Cardinals were ranked just 28th in intended air yards per pass attempt from 2019 to 2022, broken out in each year as follows:

2019: 7.4 / 28th

2020: 7.8 / 20th

2021: 7.5 / 20th

2022: 6.9 / 26th

It’s true that Arizona was known as a spread offense under Kingsbury’s leadership, but it clearly wasn’t an unreasonably unbalanced offense by NFL standards.  In contrast, with Eric Bieniemy running the offense in 2023, Washington had just 359 rushing attempts, the fewest in the NFL, and 636 pass attempts, which was the most in the NFL.  In other words, Washington literally can’t get more unbalanced with Kingsbury in charge than it was under Bieniemy last season.  Washington may very likely end up running a spread offense under Kingsbury, since that’s what he does, but there’s no statistical evidence to suggest that it won’t be far more balanced and reasonable than  Washington’s was last year.

The real issue for Kingsbury is whether Washington has the right kind of talent to run a spread, offense with lots of vertical components that requires slow, developing pass plays.  Certainly, the offensive line, as currently constructed, is woefully inadequate.  The receivers are probably better equipped, with Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson on the roster, but they could use a better small, speedy vertical threat, as no one in that mold is currently on the roster.

Kingsbury’s running game in Arizona was very Murray-centric, which wasn’t surprising given Murray’s particular skillset; however, they eventually found a runner who was more in the mold a “traditional” back, the good but not great James Conner.  As a runner, Conner was able to go both inside and outside, and was known to get good yardage after contact.  Therefore, I’d expect Washington to try to duplicate that effort, whether through Brian Robinson Jr., the superior Chris Rodriguez, or someone else.  Regardless, it’s reasonable to think that Washington will have a legitimate, more traditional rushing attack to go with its passing attack.  By its very nature, a spread offense probably means fewer tight ends on the field, unless they happen to stumble into a top-tier player.  In turn, that will mean that Washington needs better run blockers along the offensive line who can open up rushing lanes without help.

Washington’s new leadership probably hasn’t decided on what to do at quarterback yet, but I’d be very surprised if they don’t spend the second overall pick on one.  They should, as Sam Howell isn’t good enough to lead the team into the future.  I don’t necessarily think Kingsbury’s presence means that Washington will automatically lead to a running quarterback.  Murray was a runner, but that’s almost a collateral benefit in a spread passing game.  In my view, what that sort of offense really needs is more of a traditional, drop-back passer who has the ability to stand in the pocket for long enough to wait for vertical routes to open up.

Is Kingsbury the answer?  That’s unclear at this point.  His time in Arizona wasn’t great; that team only had one winning season in four years, and while Kyler Murray has been decent, he’s not great, despite his draft status.  I do expect Kingsbury to run a spread offense, but with more of a regular running game than Washington had last season.  I don’t necessarily think his play design and play calling was always top-tier, but he’ll have an opportunity to prove himself again.  One thing’s for sure: the future for the Redskins Washington Football Team Commanders Washington is brighter than it’s been in a very long time.