2024 Road to the Draft – Part 6
February 23, 2023
By Noonefromtampa
Team and Other Updates
The front office restructuring and coaching staff are complete. We are about one week away from the NFL combine, we have a full tank of gas, half a pack of cigarettes, it’s dark… and we’re wearing sunglasses. Well, we’re not the Blues Brothers but we are at the “Hit it” part of the offseason. The Commanders have a few weeks left to complete their roster evaluation and come up with a plan for moving forward. For the first time in decades, it seems there may be light at the end of the tunnel and we can reasonably be sure it is not a train this time.
Draft Data
The mock draft count is 187 this week, up a whopping 41 from last week. The Commanders will have the 2nd overall pick in the first round.
Here is the freshness distribution of the mock draft data:
| Time Period | Age % | Count |
| New | 29.41% | 55 |
| 1 Week Old | 21.93% | 41 |
| 2 Weeks Old | 11.23% | 21 |
| 3 Weeks Old | 6.95% | 13 |
| 4 Weeks Old | 9.09% | 17 |
| 5 Weeks Old | 10.16% | 19 |
| 6 Weeks Old | 7.49% | 14 |
| 7 Weeks Old | 1.60% | 3 |
| 8 Weeks Old | 1.07% | 2 |
| 9 Weeks Old | 1.07% | 2 |
| Grand Total | 100.00% | 187 |
62% of the mock picks were generated with the last two weeks which makes the data pretty fresh.
The positions picked, by descending frequency, are:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| QB | 174 | 93.05% | 91.78% | 1.27% |
| OT | 8 | 4.28% | 5.48% | -1.20% |
| WR | 3 | 1.60% | 1.37% | 0.23% |
| Edge | 1 | 0.53% | 0.68% | -0.15% |
| TE | 1 | 0.53% | 0.68% | -0.15% |
| CB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IOL | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DL | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| LB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| S | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Grand Total | 187 | 100% |
The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 2nd pick are in descending frequency:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina | 101 | 54.01% |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU | 43 | 22.99% |
| Caleb Williams | QB | USC | 30 | 16.04% |
| Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame | 5 | 2.67% |
| Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State | 3 | 1.60% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State | 3 | 1.60% |
| Brock Bowers | TE | Georgia | 1 | 0.53% |
| Laiatu Latu | Edge | UCLA | 1 | 0.53% |
| Grand Total | 187 | 100.00% |
As previously discussed, Jayden Daniels continues to move up the board. He picked up another 7% over the 5% he picked up the last week. Daniels has now surpassed Williams as the number two choice in mocks.
Thoughts
Depending on how much you read the various sites analyzing what the Commanders should do, there are a number of crazy scenarios being thrown out there, from bringing in free agent quarterbacks such as Jimmy Garoppolo or Kirk Cousins or spending a lot of draft capital to move up and take Caleb Williams.
I think where the team spends big in free agency will be pass rusher, linebacker, and a couple of offensive linemen. They will use the draft to bring in a several young, quality players that fit the mold of the new coaching staff. There will be the second round of lower tier free agents that are signed after the draft to address any remaining roster gaps.
I believe the draft priority will be quarterback, edge, linebacker, and offensive line. As always with this team I expect to be surprised by something they do. This year though, it won’t be some boneheaded move, but because the new folks have a plan, and they are tightlipped about it.
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthecap.com, sports-reference.com
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