2024 Road to the Draft – Part 8
March 7, 2023
By Noonefromtampa
Updates
The NFL Combine is in the books and a lot of top players opted out of some form of testing, electing to be there just for the interviews. There continues to be many red flags popping up around Caleb Williams but national media reports have most teams coming away positive after the one-on-one interviews. Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels will not throw for the scouts until their college Pro Day. The quarterback who did impress at the NFL Combine was Michael Penix who showed he has the arm talent for the next level, it is now up to teams to figure if he has the rest of the intangible assets to be top-flite QB.
Also, left tackle and tight end became even more of a need after the team released Charles Leno and Logan Thomas this past week.
Draft Data
The mock draft count is 218 this week, up 15 from last week. The Commanders will have the 2nd overall pick in the first round.
The freshness distribution of the mock draft data is that 59% of the mocks tracked has updated in the last three weeks.
The position picked by descending frequency is:
| Position | Picked Count | Picked % | Last Week % | % Change |
| QB | 203 | 93.12% | 92.61% | 0.51% |
| OT | 10 | 4.59% | 4.93% | -0.34% |
| WR | 3 | 1.38% | 1.48% | -0.10% |
| Edge | 2 | 0.92% | 0.49% | 0.42% |
| TE | 0 | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.00% |
| CB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| IOL | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| DL | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| LB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| RB | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| S | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Grand Total | 218 | 100% |
The top gaining positions this week were quarterback and edge, although edge only gained one additional selection overall.
Another way to think of this is that 93% of mockers think that Washington stands pat and drafts a quarterback, while 7% think that a trade back happens with some other position being selected.
The players mock picked to the Commanders at the 2nd pick are in descending frequency:
| Player | Position | School | Picked Count | Picked % |
| Drake Maye | QB | North Carolina | 120 | 55.05% |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | LSU | 58 | 26.61% |
| Caleb Williams | QB | USC | 25 | 11.47% |
| Joe Alt | OT | Notre Dame | 6 | 2.75% |
| Olumuyiwa Fashanu | OT | Penn State | 4 | 1.83% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | Ohio State | 3 | 1.38% |
| Dallas Turner | Edge | Alabama | 1 | 0.46% |
| Laiatu Latu | Edge | UCLA | 1 | 0.46% |
| Grand Total | 218 | 100.00% |
Jayden Daniels rose 4% this and is now over double the percentage of Caleb Williams selections.
Thoughts
There have been numerous discussions on social media and beat reporter articles about the efficacy of trading down versus drafting a quarterback at number two. The decision point for this new front office will be if the team has sufficiently addressed the quarterback need through free agency before the draft or if they plan to gamble that a quarterback they like is available for selection later in the draft.
Just because they trade back from number 2, doesn’t mean they would not trade back into they first round with some of that newly acquired draft capital and take someone like Penix or J.J. McCarthy if they feel that quarterback is right for this team.
A trade back would give them the opportunity to get the left tackle they now need early and still get a quarterback. The alternative is drafting Maye or Daniels and trying to obtain a tackle like Tyler Guyton or Patrick Paul with a second-round pick or trade up.
This offseason is entertaining for all the right reasons, starting with departure from the Dan Snyder days.
Sources: nflmockdraftdatabase.com, nfldraftbuzz.com, overthecap.com, sports-reference.com