Washington schedule musings
May 20, 2024
by Steve Thomas
The NFL had its annual Schedule Release Extravaganza last week, to great fanfare. This the NFL’s way of trying to have some sort of event in everyone month of the offseason. Incidentally, in case the NFL is reading this, a simple, no frills release would work just fine from my perspective. Regardless, I thought this was a good time to walk through the Redskins’ the Washington Football Team’s the Commanders’ Washington 2024 lineup.
It’s pretty tough to predict Washington’s performance in this upcoming season, given that the team has an entirely new coaching staff and a new, highly drafted rookie quarterback. Those things are definitely positives, but the team didn’t do nearly enough to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Plus, some big questions remain on the defensive side of the ball as well. We should be able to get a clearer idea of what this team can do when we get into training camp, but for now, let’s take a look at what Washington will be facing in the regular season. I won’t make a season prediction yet, but I will try to set some realistic goals for the team in each quarter of the season. Let’s dive in.
First Quarter
Week 1: at Tampa Bay
Week 2: vs New York Giants
Week 3: at Cincinnati (Monday night)
Week 4: at Arizona
At first glance, this seems like a pretty good way to start the season, despite the three road games. Both the Buccaneers and the Bengals had winning records in 2023, but they were only 9 – 8, with the Bengals missing the playoffs. Tampa Bay seems like the biggest challenge for Washington out of this bunch, particularly since it is an away game. The Buccaneers also had 48 sacks last season, which was tied for 10th in the NFL last season, and they added pass rusher Randy Gregory in free agency, so week 1 will be a decent test for Washington’s extremely low-rated offensive line. Keeping rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels upright is obviously the #1 priority in the early going. The Giants always seem to pose a big challenge, regardless of where the game is located. Just remember that the Giants won both games against Washington last season. As far as Cincinnati goes, quarterback Joe Burrow is recovering from a season-ending injury, but it seems probable that he’ll be ready to start the season. Washington historically plays badly in prime time games, but I’m not willing to attach that history to this new team yet. The Cardinals grabbed wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft, so he’ll be a big challenge to Washington’s questionable secondary. Overall, it could be worse, but this first quarter of the 2024 season seems like a pretty evenly-matched group of games for Washington.
Realistic team goal: 3 – 1
Second Quarter
Week 5: vs Cleveland
Week 6: at Baltimore
Week 7: vs Carolina
Week 8: vs Chicago
Granted, Washington will play three of these four games at home in the second quarter of the season, but there’s no doubt that this part of the season is substantially tougher than the first quarter. Cleveland and Baltimore were both playoff teams in 2023, with the Ravens having made it to the 2023 AFC Championship game and featuring NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore game is most likely a loss. The Browns are an easy team to root against, considering that they’ll feature the NFL’s resident creepy scumbag, Deshaun Watson, at quarterback since he is expected to be fully recovered from his shoulder injury from last November. That aside, however, if Watson can recover to anywhere close to his former glory in Houston, this will also be an extremely tough game. Carolina is a drastic step down, of course, and is a team that Washington should expect to beat if they plan on being in competition for the playoffs this year. The Bears game will game will game some national attention since it will feature the NFL’s top two draft picks. Chicago has some talent, and were better than Washington last year, so this is yet another difficult task.
Realistic team goal: 2 – 2
Third Quarter
Week 9: at New York Giants
Week 10: vs Pittsburgh
Week 11: at Philadelphia (Thurs.)
Week 12: vs Dallas
Week 13: vs Tennessee
The third quarter of the season is on the level of the second quarter in terms of overall schedule toughness, maybe worse. Both Philadelphia and Dallas will be considered Super Bowl contenders until they prove otherwise. The Steelers were mediocre in 2023 by their lofty standards, but still went 10 – 7 and made the playoffs. In my view, Washington needs to treat the Steelers as an elite team regardless of Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation. That puts Washington in a position of having to face three of the NFL’s top teams in a row, including a Thursday night game. Like Monday, Washington has historically been terrible on Thursday nights – they’ve consistently been one of the worst teams in the NFL in that time slot – but it probably isn’t fair to put that on this team just yet. Still, though, the Eagles on Thursday night is a tall order. Even traveling up to New York in week 9 is not an easy task, considering the history between the two teams. The final game, at home versus the Titans is the only break Washington will get.
Realistic team goal: 2 – 3
Fourth Quarter
Week 14: Bye
Week 15: at New Orleans
Week 16: vs Philadelphia
Week 17: vs Atlanta
Week 18: at Dallas
By this time in the season, Washington will either be completely out of the race, as is normally the situation, or trying to hang onto to its playoff hopes. The final quarter of the 2024 season gets a bit easier, than the third quarter, but not by much. The Saints feature Derek Carr at quarterback, who has talent, will be playing behind an improved offensive line, but aren’t going to be one of the NFL’s top franchises. That isn’t a game Washington can count on as a win, but it isn’t a guaranteed loss, either. Even Atlanta, despite their mediocre play in 2023, will be improved with Kirk Cousins under center. Philadelphia and Dallas, of course, are probably not realistically winning possibilities.
Realistic team goal: 2 – 2
Summary and conclusion
My quarter by quarter “Realistic team goals” puts Washington as shooting for a realistic overall record of 9 – 8. I caution you, the reader, that this isn’t my season prediction; it’s just establish a preliminary goal based on the schedule. Considering how bad the team was last year, 9 – 8 would be quite an improvement. However, it isn’t totally crazy to imagine if the offense works under Daniels’ leadership and the defense can figure out how to hold opposing quarterbacks in check and low down the running games of some top teams. Daniels’ chances of success hinge on an offensive line that, frankly, appears on paper to remain weak. On the defensive side, Washington did drastically improve their non-existent linebacker corps, but did nothing to improve their pass rush. Washington’s secondary has the possibility of improvement given the addition of Michigan corner Mike Sainristil. The team made a serious error by wasting their second round pick on a defensive tackle who they didn’t need and who now won’t even be available for a big chunk of the season. They needed that second round pick for several other position groups, not the interior defensive line. Prove me wrong, Johnny Newton. The point is that, after looking at the schedule, I think 9 – 8 is a reasonable goal for the team to shoot for. We’ll see.