Season Prediction 2024
August 27, 2024
by Steve Thomas
Welcome back, everyone! We’ve made it through the long offseason, training camp, and three fairly inconsequential preseason games. Washington, of course, has a new, hopefully brighter future, with a new general manager and head coach, as well as the star rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, under center. As most people understand, he team isn’t going to be fixed in one offseason, but the fans do have a reasonable expectation of improvement over the trainwreck that was the final years of the prior administration. Exactly how much improvement is an open question, one that I’m prepared to take my annual stab at answering. This is a tough season to predict, because while the quarterback position is hopefully solved, the team left major roster gaps in several other areas. Last season, I was fairly negative in comparison to many others – to me, it was fairly obvious that things were going to go off the rails quickly. My final prediction of 6 – 11 ended up being (1) closer to than most, and (2) not negative enough. We’ll see how close I get this time, but the this year’s team has a wider range of possibilities.
I use the same process for this every year: I go into my prediction column with no preconceived notions about what the team’s record should be. I go game by game and whatever the final win-loss record turns out to be is my official prediction. Here we go. Feel free to criticize in the comments.
First Quarter
Week 1, Washington at Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay won the NFC South and a playoff game, and feature a Pro Bowl quarterback. The fact that this will be Jayden Daniels’ first game could mean that the Buccaneers don’t really know what to expect from him, but it could also mean that things won’t go well. Tampa Bay had a fairly poor passing defense last year, were middle of the pack in pass rush, but featured a good run defense, but did at least take some steps to improve in that area. Their offense isn’t in question. I suspect that Jayden Daniels will give fans reason for hope, but this is too tough of a first game to expect a win.
Prediction: Tampa wins a close one.
Week 2, New York Giants at Washington: The Giants were almost as much of a trainwreck as Washington last year, and now embattled quarterback Daniel Jones is coming back from an ACL tear suffered last November. Keep in mind, of course, that even a healthy Jones has had his moments of both quality and poor play. Washington hasn’t beaten the Giants since the end of the 2021 season, but I think Washington will be motivated by Jayden Daniels’ first home game and play well.
Prediction: Washington gets a solid victory
Week 3, Washington at Cincinnati (Monday): Washington on the road on a nationally-televised Monday Night Football game against a good team has traditionally meant “blowout loss”. This one may not be a blowout loss, but I don’t think Washington is ready to overcome all of these elements to win this game. The Bengals are too good to crater at home on Monday Night Football.
Prediction: Washington doesn’t get blown out but suffers a fairly big loss.
Week 4, Washington at Arizona:
A road trip to the west coast is never easy. Also, if there’s one team that understands Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, it’s the Cardinals. Arizona was only 4 – 13 last year, but (a) three of those games came in the 8 games that Murray played in the second half of the second, and (b) so was Washington. The fact that the Cardinals drafted receiver Marvin Harrison Jr probably won’t go well for a weak and suspect Washington secondary. Throw in the fact that it’s a road game west, and I think Washington is probably going to have a tough time in this game.
Prediction: Washington loses a hard fought, close game.
First quarter summary: 1 – 3
Second Quarter
Week 5, Cleveland at Washington: Getting past the fact that Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is a Bill Clinton-level moral reprobate, he is expected to return from his shoulder injury for week 1 of the season, so he should be back in his top form by week 5. Their mostly outstanding pass defense will be a major hurdle for Washington to overcome, particularly given the suspect nature of Washington’s offensive line. Plus, Nick Chubb averaged over 6 yards per carry last year. Washington is going have a tough time with this one.
Prediction: Solid loss by the Washington
Week 6, Washington at Baltimore: Hahaha…ummm, I don’t think so. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender, prior results in important playoff games notwithstanding, and that just isn’t Washington’s world right now. Things are going to go well against the reigning, two-time league MVP.
Prediction: Blowout loss.
Week 7, Carolina at Washington: This is a potential get-well game for the home team. Carolina was the only team worse than Washington last season, and for good reason. Bryce Young wasn’t good last year, and I expect the struggles to continue into 2024. Washington is a better team than the Panthers, and Jayden Daniels is significantly better than Young, who looks like a bust. Plus, this is a home game. Look for Washington to successfully answer some questions in this game.
Prediction: Washington wins big for the first time this season.
Week 8, Chicago at Washington: Caleb Williams struggled somewhat during training camp, whereas Jayden Daniels has achieved some positive results. That favors Washington. The problem with this game is that the Bears have some significant talent in their receiver group, who will face Washington’s subpar secondary. Throw in the fact that former Washington first round pick turned Bears starter Montez Sweat will be in revenge mode, and this has the makings of a very tough game. In past years, I’d have called this one a loss. However, I’m going to take an unusually upbeat position here as a result of Daniels’ fairly strong showing in the preseason, and the fact that this is a home game.
Prediction: Washington wins a nailbiter.
Second quarter summary: 2 – 2
Total record: 3 – 5
Third Quarter
Week 9, Washington at New York Giants: There’s no way that Washington is going to sweep the Giants, which is something they’ve only done once, in 2022, since the Robert Griffin III year in 2011. The Giants will quite possibly be having a tough season at this point, but they have a tendency to rise up to the occasion at home against Washington.
Prediction: Washington loses a fairly close game.
Week 10, Pittsburgh at Washington:
Typically, I’d call this game as a Steelers blowout win. However, the Steelers are in flux right now, at least by their lofty standards. In addition, at this stage of his career, Russell Wilson doesn’t appear capable of getting back to the level of his glory years in Seattle. Justin Fields is also on the roster, but he may not be the answer either. As a result, I’m not totally sold on the Steelers. Plus, this game is at home at C-Words Field. Still, though, there’s the tide of history with the Steelers somewhat. They don’t really have awful seasons, even in down years. Look for a very close, hard-fought contest.
Prediction: Washington loses another nail-biter.
Week 11, Washington at Philadelphia (Thursday): No. Just no.
Prediction: Washington loses big on national television.
Week 12, Dallas at Washington: Normally, it’s a safe bet to go with a Washington loss against the Dallas Cowboys. After all, Washington is just 6 – 14 against the Cowboys over the last ten years. However, despite the annual media hype over this franchise, they’ve lost a few key people, so I’m not sure that Dallas’ performance is going to be quite up to the level of years’ past. I’d be very, very surprised if Dallas flat-out falls apart, but it’s possible that they take a step back this season. On the other hand, if my predictions are correct, Washington will need a victory here to have any chance of staying in the race. Still, though, it’s tough to believe that this game will go well.
Prediction: Washington plays better than expected, but still loses a close game, but one that Dallas controls the entire way.
Week 13, Tennessee at Washington: You aren’t going to convince me that Will Levis doesn’t suck until I actually watch him not suck for some significant period of time. Because Levis has sucked, currently sucks, and will likely continue to suck in the future, Washington will overperform here despite both defensive deficiencies and some talent in Tennessee’s receiving group. Remember, Will Levis sucks.
Prediction: Washington gets a much needed solid victory here.
Third quarter summary: 1 – 4
Total record: 4 – 9
Fourth Quarter
Week 15, Washington at New Orleans: The Saints aren’t a bad team, but they also aren’t that good, either. Certainly, New Orleans will look at this game as one that the Saints should win. I’m not necessarily sold on Derek Carr being the franchise quarterback of the future. Statistically, the Saints’ passing defense was one of the best in the league last season, so that doesn’t bode well for Washington. However, most years, at least, Washington wins a game that they probably shouldn’t, and this season, I think that this Week 15 matchup will be that game.
Prediction: Washington upsets the Saints in a close game.
Week 16, Washington at Philadelphia: Sorry, but there’s simply no way Washington is going to walk into Philadelphia and win a game this year. The Eagles are probably going to be a Super Bowl contender. Washington isn’t.
Prediction: Washington loses big.
Week 17, Atlanta at Washington: This is a game that Washington needs to win, and I think they can. Washington can’t let a team that features both Kirk Cousins and Taylor Heinicke beat them. I don’t think Michael Penix Jr. will get on the field this year except in the event of injury. This will likely be another game that the oddsmakers will think favors the visiting team, but I think Jayden Daniels will put together a good game to close out the home schedule in year one.
Prediction: Washington gets a victory.
Week 18, Washington at Dallas: At this point in the season, Dallas will likely need a victory, whereas Washington will be merely finishing out the season. Therefore, I find it extremely hard to believe that Washington can actually walk into Dallas, Texas, for this game and do anything but get blown out.
Prediction: Washington loses big.
Fourth quarter summary: 2 – 2
Overall season prediction: 6 – 11, which will be an improvement over 2023.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section below.