Burgundy and Gold Reaction: Did The Better Team Win?

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October 30, 2024

by David Earl

Who Dominated This Game?

I know that Adam Rank typically plays the comedic role for NFL Network and has spent many years trolling the Washington organization and the fans. While his comments in the video, “Caleb Williams dominated this game,” and “The Bears were the better team,” could be written off as a troll, his reply for Chick Hernandez implies a more serious demeanor. Is Adam Rank correct here or is he simply a scorned Bears fan whose 6-win prediction for Washington now looks foolish? Let’s dive into the numbers, shall we?

At the end of the first half the Chicago Bears ran 28 total plays totaling only 90 net yards and averaged just 3.2 yards per play. In 5 first half drives, the Bears punted 4 times and had a turnover on downs after attempting a 4th and 1 yard to go play. Williams managed to complete just 3 of his 8 pass attempts and the defense held the Bears’ best wide receiving threat, D.J. Moore, to only 2 targets, 1 reception, and 0 yards as his only reception came on the failed 4th down attempt. This Bears offense, averaging 13.7 first-half points in the last 3 games, was held out of the end zone and without a field goal attempt in the first half. Although the Bears’ offense averaged 5.8 yards per play in the last 3 games, which wasabout middle of the pack, ranked 14th, in the league, the Washington defense clamped down on their offense even more. The defense has been susceptible to the run, allowing 5.2 yards per carry, but held the Bears to 4.3 yards per carry with a long of 13 yards.

Washington’s offense was far more dominant in the first half, gaining 267 yards off 35 plays averaging 7.6 yards per play. Entering this game the Bears defense allowed an average of 4.7 yards per rush attempt and Washington took advantage of that liability by averaging 7.1 yards per rush attempt in the first half. Taking away the one 29 yard run and a 19 yard run by Austin Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. respectively, Washington’s run game still averaged 4.6 yards per run in the first half. Jayden Daniels was not great in the first half.  He completed just over 50% of his passes and had a quarterback rating of 79.7 but he made the plays when it counted most. On their second drive of the first half, Daniels completed a 61 yard pass to Terry McLaurin on 3rd down and 9 yards to go, then had a 13 yard scramble on 2nd down and 15 yards to go later in the second quarter. Each of these drives resulted in field goals which led to a 9-0 lead heading into overtime.

There were missed opportunities in the first half as well. Washington’s offense finished 0-3 in the red zone, instead settling for 3 field goals. In these possessions, they committed multiple penalties, including an ineligible man downfield on left guard Nick Allegretti.  That penalty took away a 24 yard completion to Dyami Brown inside the Bears’ 5 yard line. Then, what should have been a touchdown pass to Zach Ertz, was taken away. Ertz had control of the ball and his left hand under the ball when he hit the ground. There was certainly some movement afterwards but Ertz could have easily been considered down by contact before the movement as he completed every other defined aspect of a catch in the rule. So what ended up being a 9-0 lead at halftime could have been a 17-0 or even 24-0 lead but that’s how games can tend to unfold. The point here is not what the score should have or could have been but the fact Washington was the dominant team in the first half, and it was not even close.

The second half was a different performance for the Washington offense.  The Bears had 2 productive drives, one of which resulted in a 56 yard touchdown run by D’Andre Swift. The run game had a significant drop in production, going  from 7.1 yards per carry average in the first half to 3.4 yards per carry in the second half. As a whole, Washington’s offense dropped over a full yard-per-play average to 6.1.  The Bears did well to adjust, which allowed their offense to get back into the game as their production increased from 3.2 yards per play to 6.7. The run game appeared to get going as well, averaging 7.4 yards per carry; however,that was also on the back of a Swift 56 yard touchdown run. Aside from that play, the Bears ran for 63 yards on 15 attempts, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  When removing Swift’s big touchdown run, the Bears only averaged 5.2 yards per play. Even with Washington’s production dipping in the second half, they were still in the position to win the game leading to the miracle Hail Mary by Jayden Daniels. Aside from a couple of key plays by the Bears in the second half, Washington still had complete control throughout the entire game.

Skeptical View Still For The Defense

To start, yes, this defense is certainly in a better place than at any point last year. It ranks middle of the pack in first downs allowed per game, 15th overall, and 5th overall in the previous 3 games entering week 8. They ranked 19th in 3rd down conversion rate allowed, with 4.4, and were 7th overall in the last 3 games before week 8 as well. Washington is among the top defenses in sack percentage, at 9.05% and even better in the last 3 games, during which time they had a 13.10% sack percentage. The secondary has also improved from being bottom of the league in coverage. They have allowed an overall quarterback rating of 81.6 in the previous 3 games and entered week 8 ranked 13th, but still allowing a high completion percentage of 67.12% over that same stretch. So why the skepticism?

The yards per play, rushing yards per attempt, and the overall quarterback rating are some of the more important categories in evaluating performance. Since week 5 against the Cleveland Browns, Washington’s defense has allowed each team to produce nearly exactly what their respective offenses have done heading into these matchups, with a few exceptions. The significant performances that stood out during this stretch for Washington’s defense were the Cleveland Browns’ yards per play allowed, the Baltimore Ravens’ yards per carry average, and the quarterback rating against for the Carolina Panthers and Chicago Bears. Washington held the Browns to 2.6 yards per play when averaging 3.9 yards per play and held the Ravens to 4.8 yards per carry when they had averaged 6.1 yards per carry. They also held Panthers and Bears well under their respective 75.4 and 88.7 quarterback ratings when entering their matchups. Aside from that, each team’s offensive output against Washington closely matched what they were doing up to that point in the season.

With the one playoff team they faced in the Ravens, Washington’s defense allowed Baltimore’s offense to outperform what they had done to that point in the season. The Ravens averaged 6.8 yards per play and a team quarterback rating of 107.1 before kickoff with Washington. Once their matchup concluded the Washington defense allowed Lamar Jackson to finish with a 114.7 quarterback rating as the Ravens offense averaged 7.4 yards per play. Washington ranked 22nd in takeaways per game, with .09, but has improved to 1.3 per game, which is 17th in the NFL. Yes, this defense is much improved from last year and there is a measurable improvement over the last few games, but keep this in full perspective. It would serve this defense very well to add a true number one corner and a consistent pass rusher off the edge.

What Did We Witness???

If there isn’t a better video of the events that unfolded before, during, and after this memorable Hail Mary play than the Rally Captain’s video above. This play will go down as one of the best moments of this franchise’s history since the Golden Era days, if not the best. From being down 13-0 to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football to Robert Griffin III’s 76 yard touchdown run in front of the home crowd, what Jayden Daniels accomplished rivals any of these moments. In order to best describe this moment, allow me to paint you a picture of me experiencing this unfolding before me live.

Having to watch Washington’s offense move relatively at ease in the first half only to shoot themselves in the foot heading into the second half with only a 9-0 lead was frustrating. The second half was more a competitive back-and-forth, with Swift finally breaking through with his long 56 yard touchdown run to pull the Bears within 5. I was bewildered when the Bears went up 14-12 late in the 4th quarter with 25 seconds left. I was running through my head how Washington gave this game away to the Bears. On the final play and 2 seconds left, I literally was hanging over the rail hoping for a miracle. The time between Jayden Daniels throwing the ball until Tyrique Stevenson‘s tip went relatively quick, as time slowed down as the ball headed towards Noah Brown. The minute the catch was secured I launched from my seat and, while my wife seriously thought I was about to flip over the rail, began celebrating and hugging all the fans in my section. I’m not exaggerating when I say the feeling of blacking out started coming over me. It was a moment I continue to play over and over in my head as this will be a day never forgotten.

Quick funny sequences occurred during this whole process as well. Before the play, a Bears fan said behind me, “I have watched this scenario play out far too often against the Packers. This game is not over!” Two Bears fans to my left shook my hand saying it was a great game before the Hail Mary completion. After the play and the celebration cooled down I reached out for a handshake and said to them it was a great game. One Bears fan shook my hand while the other was too disgusted by the idea and didn’t even look over at me. This sequence of events helped to solidify this moment forever.

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