Burgundy & Gold Reaction: What This Win Reveals

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December 18, 2024

by David Earl

Are We Expecting Too Much?

Washington is now 9-5 but has one win against any team vying for a realistic playoff position in week 4 against the Arizona Cardinals. Before this season many experts had them at roughly 6 wins. In comparison, the betting line was 6.5 wins due to many perceived weaknesses such as wide receiver depth beyond Terry McLaurin, as well as the lack of a true number one, starting quality player in the cornerback room. Even with the tempered expectations some thought, and were correct, that the potential dynamic play of quarterback Jayden Daniels would make this team competitive each and every week. It is undeniable that his play and the overall team coaching have allowed this team to exceed most expectations. The question is just how critical the fans should be of this team, both as a playoff-caliber team and as a team in year one of a rebuild. This is not an easy question to answer so let’s walk our way through it.

This game against the New Orleans Saints was certainly filled with missed opportunities, such as Jayden Daniels overthrow a near-guaranteed touchdown and then the drop by Terry McLaurin later on, but I am not focusing on the mistakes today. In the previous 3 games, the Saints allowed an average of 15.3 points per game, which is 3rd best in the NFL during that span. They ranked 23rd in allowing 380.5 yards per game, which breaks down to 5.9 yards per play. In those 3 games, the Saints played a much-improved offense in the Cleveland Browns. Before the November 17th meeting the Browns’ season average on offense was 253.9 yards per game in weeks 1-7 which was ranked dead last in the NFL.  They improved to 343 yards per game on offense the following 3 games heading into their matchup against the Saints. The Browns would amass 443 total yards of offense averaging 6.3 yards per play in a 34-14 loss to the Saints. The Saints forced the Browns to punt 3 of their final 4 drives and scored 21 unanswered points in the 4th quarter. Aside from an 89-yard touchdown pass to WR Jerry Jeudy in the first quarter, the Saints defense allowed only 2 additional plays over 20 yards the rest of the game. A 30-yard touchdown pass on the Browns’ opening possession of the second half and a late 30-yard play to wide receiver Cedric Tillman.

In the Saints’ week 13 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams, their defense held the Rams’ offense in the first half to 93 total yards averaging 4.1 yards per play. New Orleans finished the game allowing 322 total yards and gave up an average of 6.9 yards per play in the second half. The Rams ‘offense averaged 331.8 yards per game average (5.7 yards per play) heading into this matchup. In other words, a Rams offense that was only averaging 21 points per game heading into this matchup as the Saints lost 21-14. So what is the point in all this rambling off numbers?

The Saints’ defense was ranked 3rd in allowing 15.3 points per game the previous three weeks. The context of this three-game stretch is being overlooked. In this 3 game stretch, they played a Browns offense that, while improved in yardage per game average, only managed 16.4 points per game heading into their matchup against the Saints and finished with 12 points. Next, an average Rams offense totaled 21 against the Saints, which was their league average in points per game. The Rams also hit their marks in season average in total offense as well in that game.  In the middle of these two games, they played one of the worst offenses in the NFL the New York Giants.

Essentially my point here is that the Saints’ defense had been middle of the roadfor the season and during the previous 3 games before Washington. The 15.3 points per game stat line is simply misleading when looking at the overall body of work. To prove this further, while they were ranked 7th in passer rating allowed, 83 per game, and their 5.89% sack percentage ranked 28th in the league. They allowed the worst yards-per-carry average of 5.0 yards per attempt and weren’t much better the previous three games at 4.6 yards per attempt.

As the Saints’ defense simply held their previous three opponents to their respective league averages, how did Washington fair offensively in that respect? Washington’s 326 total yards of offense were their per-game average for the season but their yards-per-play average was more than a yard under. This season, Washington’s offense has averaged 5.5 yards per play yet finished this weekend averaging 4.4 yards per play. Granted the aforementioned missed pass plays to Terry McLaurin would have flipped the outcome here, but that isn’t what happened.

Their struggles to connect only these pass plays didn’t end there as a Washington run game, which had been averaging 4.9 yards per carry, finished with 137 yards on 35 attempts, which equates to an average of 3.9 yards per carry. Also, the offensive line was unable to protect Jayden Daniels consistently against one of the worst pass rushes in the league, allowing a 10.34% sack percentage. On top of the 8 sacks allowed by Washington, the Saints defensive front had an additional 6 quarterback hits and assisted in 11 tackles for loss. While Daniels did take some terrible sacks, the pressure given up by this offensive line unit all game was simply inexcusable.

There were some positives to take away for Washington’s offense.  Daniels finished the game with a 118.5 quarterback rating and completed 81% of his passes, with no interceptions. He continues to make the right reads and decisions while keeping the ball out of harm’s way. Kliff Kingsbury has finally begun to not only consistently move Terry McLaurin around, but has also developed a game plan around isolating him on specific plays. We saw on 3 very winnable routes he and Daniels couldn’t connect on in this game. These plays were set up and disguised very well through earlier schematic plays used later to hide these particular plays forcing the defense to react one way and everything worked perfectly except the execution. The game could have very easily gotten away from the Saints early, on as it was these miscues that kept them in this game for a chance to win.

 

Like Clockwork

The ending of this game certainly garnered some reactions, as the game clock appeared to stop for a brief second at the 9-second mark. At first glance, in real-time this seemed to have benefited the Saints by allowing them the time to spike the ball. Upon a closer look provided by our resident IT guy Alex Zeese, you will see that if the clock never stopped the time left was approximately 1.6 seconds left on the clock. Granted there could have been more of a rush to the line if the actual time had been on the clock, and that could have possibly affected the mental aspect of this play. Theoretically, Saints’ quarterback Spencer Rattler may have been more likely to not snap it in time. Watching the flow of the play and how calm Rattler appeared I don’t see that as likely.

Of course, the “NFL is rigged” comments are now making headway but how can that even be considered? Someone who bets for a living can help explain this to me if I am wrong, but the betting line before kickoff was Washington -7.5 points, an over/under of 44 points, and the Saints given +304 money line. A bet for the Saints taking the -7.5 points and the under for total points wins regardless of whether this 2-point conversion is successful or not the game would have finished with 41 total points. A successful 2-point conversion would not even affect those playing -7.5 points or the over as there was never a scenario at the end of the game to achieve that mark. No organization like the Las Vegas Sportsbooks is going to rig a game to have the Saints win and payout the +304 money for an outright win by the Saints. This is just an overreaction to the extreme as it helps speak to the conspiracy theory of NFL games being fixed every year. Again, I do not place bets in any fashion so if there is an aspect of this I am missing or I am just ignorantly wrong please chime in as I am all ears. Only coherent and plausible responses will be considered.

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