Game Preview, Week 8: Cowboys at Redskins

Posted on October 27, 2017 by Steve Thomas

by Steve Thomas and Sean Conte

Well, well, well, kids, guess what? It’s Dallas week!!!! This means that it’s time to forget the ugliness that was Monday Night Football (again) and focus on the Redskins’ most hated rival, the Dallas Cowboys. As was the case last week, quite a bit is riding on this game – both teams hold 3 – 3 records, and thus need to keep pace in order to stay competitive for one of the NFC wildcard spots. Beyond that, though, it’s Dallas week and every one of these game is a must win, regardless of records, in our book. Fortunately, the opponent isn’t the same team that ruled the NFC East in 2016. This version of the Cowboys has had its share of ups and downs, including obnoxious and almost suspended running back Ezekiel Elliott, who hasn’t performed up to the levels he reached in his rookie campaign. The Redskins suffered a series of critical injuries against the Eagles, particularly to the offensive line, and are still waiting on key players such as Josh Norman and Ty Nsekhe (who is all of a sudden a pretty important guy around here) to return, so we can’t pretend that this will be easy. It never is, though. Let’s get on with the preview:

Game time & location: Sunday, October 29, 4:25 p.m. ET, Fed Ex Field, Raljon, MD; Gates open 2:35 p.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 11:25 a.m.; all other parking lots 12:25 p.m.

Television: Fox

Television announcers: Thom Brennaman, Troy Aikman

DC-area radio: ESPN 980

Redskins radio network: http://www.redskins.com/media-gallery/radio-network.html

Cowboys radio network: http://www.dallascowboys.com/multimedia/radio-broadcast-information

Satellite radio: XM: 225 Redskins broad.) Sirius: 93 (Redskins broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)

Redskins roster: http://www.redskins.com/team/roster.hml

Redskins depth chart: http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html

Cowboys roster: http://www.dallascowboys.com/team/roster

Cowboys depth chart: http://www.dallascowboys.com/team/depth-chart

All-time head-to-head record vs Cowboys: 42 – 68 – 2 (last 10: 4 – 6)

Last meeting: L, November 24, 2016, 26 – 31

Early odds: Redskins, -1.5

SEAN’S 5 KEYS TO THE GAME

Put Their Receivers on Lock-Down

Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley are not the Dez Bryant and Cole Beasley of yesteryear. Dez has about as many yards as Chris Thompson this season, and hasn’t topped 100 yards yet in a single outing. Cole Beasley looks like an afterthought. That said, I could absolutely see Washington letting one or both of these guys break out, so we need to scheme as if they’re their old selves. We might be doing this without Josh Norman again, so plan accordingly.

Key in on Elliot

Elliot will hopefully be too distracted by his ongoing legal battles against the league to play lights-out football. He is playing well though, averaging around 3.7 YPC. He may not quite be in 2016 form, but that’s probably by extension of the offensive line’s regression. Hopefully we can key on Elliot and keep the damage to a minimum.

Exploit the Secondary

The Cowboys’ pass defense is ranked 9th in the league, letting up an average of 216 yards a game. I’m actually surprised it’s that high, since the Cowboys aren’t great at generating pressure (outside of DE DeMarcus Lawrence) and they’ve been absolutely decimated by injuries in the backfield. There should be opportunities this week. Let’s hope for a bounce-back game for our receiving corps, and a continued resurgence of Jordan Reed.

Wake up on 3rd Down

The Cowboys rank well on 3rd down. The Redskins’ defense does not. Hopefully by knowing this we can prepare adequately. Dallas is not afraid to throw the ball on 3rd and short, particularly to their TEs, but their not opposed to taking the more traditional short-run approach. And don’t forget the option, which the Cowboys will also likely sprinkle in.

Contain Prescott

This guy gets things done with his legs, including running the ball himself and scrambling around outside the pocket. Defenders need to play through the whistle to prevent Prescott from engineering a long-developing deep pass downfield. He’s also great in the red zone — another one of our defensive deficiencies. Zach Brown and DJ Swearinger both blew coverages at points against the Eagles, and we can’t afford that against Dallas

SEAN’S 3 KEY MATCHUPS

Zeke Vs. Brown and the Front 7

As previously mentioned, Zeke’s been hampered by a shoddy line. Zach Brown isn’t the best in coverage, but he can generate pressure and stop the run. We need everyone to play cohesively up front.

Dez Bryant Vs. Josh Norman (Hopefully)

And here I was thinking a broken rib would keep Norman out for much longer. From all indications, Norman intends to play this weekend, and if so we’ll get a new installment of the Norman vs. Bryant.

Kirk Cousins vs. Cowboys Secondary

Kirk should have opportunities here; this secondary is banged up (actually worse than ours is) and playing at an uninspiring level. We can’t leave opportunities on the field this week.

SEAN CUTS TO THE CHASE

After dropping the last two matchups against Philadelphia, Washington is thirsty for a division win. They’ll get their wish this week against Dallas. It’ll be a relatively close matchup in inclement weather, but the Skins will get it done. Kirk goes ham against a depleted secondary, taking pressure off of our non-existent running game, and securing the win. Redskins, 24 – 17.

OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Friday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)

LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice

NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out

Redskins	Cowboys
LB Z. Brown, back; Wed; DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP	CB C. Awuzie, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
C S. Long, knee/knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	K D. Bailey, groin; Wed: DNP; ; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O
T T. Nsekhe, core muscle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O	T T. Smith, back/hip; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP
G. B. Scherff, knee/back; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q	LB K. Wilber, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q
LB P. Smith, groin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	LB J. Durant, groin; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
T T. Williams, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q	LB S. Lee, hamstring; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
G T. Catalina, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q	DT M. Collins, foot; Wed: not listed; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
S D. Everett, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
LB M. Foster, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: O
S S. McClure, knee/hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
CB F. Moreau, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
T M. Moses, ankle/ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: LP; game: Q
CB J. Norman, rib: Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q
CB B. Breeland, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP; game: Q
RB R. Kelley, ankle; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
S M. Nicholson, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP
RB C. Thompson, toe; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP

Redskins:TEAM STATISTICS

Even ignoring the rankings of the accumulating stats for one more week due to the variances of the bye week, the strengths and weaknesses of the 2017 Redskins are still apparent – 689 yards (a 1,378 yard season pace) rushing after 6 games is not particularly good for a team that has playoff aspirations and whose head coach continually pledged would be more of a running team. Third down conversion rate still isn’t what anyone would call “good”, and in fact is slightly worse than last year at this time (40.8% prior to game 7 last year compared to 39.5% this week). However, the team is noticably better in red zone efficiency (52.63% touchdowns compared to just 40.0% headed into game 7 in 2016). Other statistical notes this week: third down back Chris Thompson still leads the Redskins in both receiving and rushing, a condition that, simply put, cannot continue if Washington intends to improve the effectiveness of their offense. However, in spite of all of the hand-wringing, both on The Hog Sty and elsewhere, perhaps the most important comparison statistic is this: the 2016 Redskins scored 142 points through game 6, and this year’s team is at 141 points. So – in spite of the controversy this season, the most important number of all is almost exactly the same as last season.

Defensively, the Redskins had a down week against the Eagles, but seem to have made strides over last yeaer. However, overall, the 2017 Redskins have surrendered 147 points, which is slightly more than the 141 points given up by the 2016 team through 6 games. In other words, all of the changes have produced a defense that, thusfar at least, have produced results that are essentially the same. A few statistical notes: the Redskins continue to be bad in red zone defense, with opposing offenses scoring touchdowns on 64.71% of their red zone trips. On a more positive note, the fact that the Redskins are currently surrendering only 4.0 yards per carry on the ground is an accomplishment considering that the Redskins have faced several quality rushing teams. For the sake of comparison, the 2016 Redskins had given up an average of 5.0 yards per carry through game 6.

Record 3 – 3 (Home: 2 – 1; NFC East: 0 – 2, tied)

All-time franchise record: 589 – 575 – 28

Offense

Offensive rankings	16 (points) (trend +4) / 17 (total yards) (trend +2) / 8 (yards per game) (trend -2) / 6 (yards per play) (trend -1) / 13 (passing yards) (trend +6) / 3 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 18 (rushing yards) (trend -4) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) (trend +1)
Points for	141
Yards per game	369.2
Passing	198 att (21st); 135 comp; 68.2% comp per. (4th); 8.3 Y/A; 1526 net yds; 12 TD; 3 Int
Passing leader	Cousins (158 att, 1637 yds (11th), 68.2% comp perc., 12 TDs / 3 Int (33rd), 107.2 QB rating (3rd)
Receiving leader	Thompson (366 yds (24th), 23 rec, 3 TDs, 15.9 Y/C); Reed (206 yds, 26 rec (52nd)), 2 TDs, 7.9 Y/C)
Rushing	167 att (17th); 689 yds; 4.1 Y/A; 114.8 Y/G; 3 TD
Rushing leader	Thompson (43 att (47th), 213 yds, 2 TD, 5.0 Y/A, long 61)
Sacks surrendered / rank	12 / 10
Ave time of possession / rank	31:41/ 5
3rd down conversion rate / rank	39.5% / 17
TD percentage in red zone / rank	52.63% / 18

Defense

Defensive rankings	16 (points) (trend -6) / 8 (total yards) (trend -3) / 12 (yards per game surrendered) (trend even) / 17 (yards per play) (trend -5) / 14 (passing yards) (trend -4) / 23 (passing yards per att.) (trend -8) / 7 (rushing yards) (trend -2) / 14 (rushing yards per att.) (trend even)
Points against	147
Yards per game surrendered	325.2
Opponent’s passing	204 att (5th); 127 comp; 62.3% comp perc. (13th); 7.4 Y/A; 1384 net yds; 10 TDs; QB Rating 88.9 (16th)
Opponent’s rushing	143 att (5th); 567 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 4 TD; 94.5 Y/G (9th)
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	18/ 9 / Smith (4.5)
Tackles leader	Brown (41)
Int / rank / Int leader	6 / 15 / Fuller (2)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	41.77% / 24
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	64.71% / 29

Special Teams

Kick returns	18.5 Y/R (30th), 6 returns, long 24 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	5.8 Y/R (26th), 12 returns, long 18 yards (23rd), 0 TD
Kick return defense	19.9 Y/R (7th), 8 returns, 0 TD
Punt return defense	8.9 Y/R (17th), 10 returns, 0 TD
Punting	45.2 Y/P (19th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 10 / 9 / -1 / 21

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 33 / 2

Cowboys:

The Cowboys have not been as effective an offense as they were just a year ago, but from a statistical perspective, they are still rushing the ball at an elite level (5.0 yards per carry and 7 touchdowns), even despite running back Ezekiel Elliott being not quite as successful as he was during his rookie campaign. Regardless, the Redskins can expect a very heavy pose of running coupled with an efficient, effective passing attack from quarterback Dak Prescott (62.7% completions and 98.2 quarterback rating).

Defensively, the Cowboys are a quality unit by most statistical measures; however, their weakness appears to be run defense. Dallas is only 24th in the NFL, giving up 4.6 yards per attempt to opponents. The Cowboys are an elite pass rushing unit, with 21 sacks on the year thusfar (ranked 6th). Dallas is fairly weak on third down conversions, however, ranked 26th in the NFL.

Record: 3 – 3 (Away: 2 – 1; NFC East: 1 – 0; 2nd, tied)

Offense

Offensive rankings	8 (points) / 13 (total yards) / 6 (yards per game) / 6 (yards per play) / 22 (passing yards) / 21 (passing yards per att.) / 5 (rushing yards) / 2 (rushing yards per att.)
Points for	165
Yards per game	380.3
Passing	206 att (24th); 129 comp; 62.6% comp per. (17th); 6.9 Y/A; 1397 net yds; 14 TDs; 4 Int
Passing leader	Prescott (204 att, 1426 yds (18th), 62.7% comp per., 14 TDs / 4 Int, 98.2 QB rating (8th))
Reception leader	Witten (283 yds, 42 targets/31 rec (24th), 3 TDs, 9.1 Y/C) ; Bryant (327 yds (43rd), 58 targets/28 rec, 4 TDs, 11.7 Y/C)
Rushing	176 att (14th); 885 yds; 5.0 Y/A; 147.5 Y/G (2nd); 7 TDs
Rushing leader	Elliott (131 att (4th), 540 yds (6th), 4 TDs, 4.1 Y/A (22nd), long 30 yds)
Sacks surrendered / rank	7 / 2
Ave time of possession / rank	30:15/ 15
3rd down conversion rate / rank	45.3% / 5
TD percentage in red zone / rank	66.67% / 2

Defense

Defensive rankings	14 (points) / 11 (total yards) / 17 (yards per game surrendered) / 10 (yards per play) / 9 (passing yards) / 9 (passing yards per att.) / 16 (rushing yards) / 24 (rushing yards per att.)
Points against	142
Yards per game surrendered	331.5
Opponent’s passing	221 att (16th); 142 comp; 64.3% comp per. (21st); 6.7 Y/A; 1296 net yds; 11 TD; QB Rating 96.5 (25th)
Opponent’s rushing	150 att (9th); 693 yds; 4.6 Y/A; 3 TD
Sacks / rank / Sack leader	21/ 6 / Lawrence (9.5)
Tackles leader	Lee (28)
Int / rank / Int leader	2 / 28 / Brown/Lewis (2)
Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank	44.87% / 26
Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank	55.0% / 18

Special Teams

Kick returns	23.3 Y/R (9th), 7 returns, long 28 yards, 0 TDs
Punt returns	6.8 Y/R (22nd), 9 returns, long 21 yards (19th), 0 TDs
Kick return defense	20.4 Y/R (9th), 14 returns, 0 TDs
Punt return defense	6.1 Y/R (9th), 9 returns, 0 TDs
Punting	44.3 Y/P (25th)

Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 7 / 7 / 0 / 15

Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 38 / 3

* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com