Super Bowl LIX Preview
February 7, 2025
by Steve Thomas
Welcome to the Super Bowl, 2025 edition, everyone. This obviously isn’t a matchup that comes with much appeal for Washington fans, for obvious reasons, or for that matter, many other fans. On one hand, we have one of Washington’s division rivals and the team who blew them out in the NFC Championship game two weeks ago, with the competition being the team with the highest profile in the NFL, complete with a pop star girlfriend, high profile annoying families and spouses, players in every single commercial on television, and big-time podcasts. Neither option brings much excitement to DMW residents. Oh, and there’s yet another terrible halftime show, for what seems like the millionth time in a row. However, there is an historic element to the game: as most know, the Chiefs are attempting to be the first team in NFL history to win three Super Bowl championships in a row. That’s something, as distasteful as the Chiefs may be. Personally, my very relucant rooting interest is in seeing the end of the Chiefs dynasty, because I’m tired of it. I’m not totally happy about it, but the Chiefs are more distasteful than the Eagles to me at this moment. What’s your prediction? Let us know in the comment section. Our preview is below.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
- Kansas City Chiefs (15 – 2; 1st, AFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Buffalo Bills (13 – 4; 1st, AFC East)
- Baltimore Ravens (12 – 5; 1st, AFC North)
- Houston Texans (10 – 7; 1st, AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11 – 6; 2nd, AFC West)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10 – 7; 2nd, AFC North)
- Denver Broncos (10 – 7; 3rd, AFC West)
NFC
- Detroit Lions (15 – 2; 1st, NFC North; homefield advantage and bye)
- Philadelphia Eagles (14 – 3; 1st, NFC East)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10 – 7; 1st, NFC South)
- Los Angeles Rams (10 – 7; 1st, NFC West)
- Minnesota Vikings (14 – 3; 2nd, NFC North)
- Washington (12 – 5; 2nd, NFC East)
- Green Bay Packers (11 – 6; 3rd, NFC North)
2025 NFL PLAYOFF SCHEDULE:
Super Bowl LIX
Sunday, Feb. 9
6:30 p.m. ET, Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana (FOX, FOX Deportes, Fubo, Hulu+ Live TV, NFL+, Tubi, YouTube TV)
Halftime Show – yet another washed up rapper different because the NFL doesn’t understand that people do want something besides R&B or rap Kendrick Lamar
MATCHUP PREVIEW
Philadelphia Eagles (#2) vs Kansas City Chiefs (#1)
Early line: Chiefs, -1
What you’ll notice from the statistics below is that from a statistical perspective, the Eagles are way ahead of the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. However, the Chiefs have been finding their way out of tough situations all year, and have the advantage of a future first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback at the top of his game who seems to continually be able to find ways to win. The Eagles have a better running game, in particular, by far, and a better defense. Statistics aside, though, I can’t escape the feeling that the Chiefs will figure it out and get the victory in a close, exciting game.
Prediction: Chiefs, 31 – 27
ANALYSIS OF SCHEDULE & WIN-LOSS RECORDS
The records for each of the playoff teams on the season and their current win – loss streak are:
| # gms plyd against winning tms | # gms won against winning tms | Road Wins | Streak | Opp win % rank | |
| Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 10 | 8 | 7 | L1 | 8 |
| Detroit Lions (15-2, #1) | 9 | 7 | 8 | W3 | 3 |
| Buffalo Bills (13-4, #2) | 6 | 3 | 5 | L1 | 12 |
| Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, #2) | 7 | 5 | 6 | W2 | 13 |
| Baltimore Ravens (12-5, #3) | 10 | 7 | 6 | W4 | 2 |
| Houston Texans (10-7, #4) | 6 | 1 | 5 | W1 | 9 |
| Los Angeles Rams (10-7, #4) | 7 | 3 | 5 | W1 | 4 |
| Washington (12-5, #6) | 5 | 1 | 5 | W5 | 14 |
The last column, labeled “opponent’s winning percentage rank”, shows which teams faced opponents with the highest combined winning percentages. The Packers were ranked #1, meaning, their opponents had the highest combined winning percentage, whereas Washington #14, i.e. last, meaning they played the easiest schedule of any playoff team. The lower the ranking number, the better. In all of the charts in this column, the rankings are out of the original 14 playoff teams, not just the remaining 8.
What stands out in this data is that the Lions and the Ravens were both ranked in the top three in their conference and also played very hard schedules, which suggests that those two teams may be well prepared for the playoffs. In contrast, Washington clearly had the easiest schedule of all teams left in the playoffs, including only one victory over a winning team all year.
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Offense
The following chart shows the offensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole. The lowest ranking means that team had the best stats in that particular category.
A couple of notes – first, the label “wPts” stands for “weighted points”. We increased the ranking of the total points scored category, because ultimately points are what win games. Second, you’ll see that the final column repeats the strength of schedule rankings shown above. We did not attempt to impose a statistical weighting to the rankings in each category for strength of schedule. Instead, the rankings are their in order to allow you to make your own judgments as to the importance and relevance of the raw statistical rankings.
| NFL Playoff teams offensive rankings | ||||||||||||||||
| wPts | wPts | Total Yds | Pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | sacks | QB rtg | rush yds | run YPA | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Time of poss | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 2.615 | 1 | 2 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2.923 | 2 | 3 |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 6 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6.000 | 4 | 13 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 6.154 | 5 | 12 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 5 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 6.231 | 6 | 14 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 7 | 9.615 | 11 | 8 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 14 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11.385 | 13 | 4 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 13 | 4 | 11.692 | 14 | 9 |
What should jump off the page at you is that the two teams that are ranked first and second in overall statistical offensive production, Baltimore and Detroit, also had two of the most difficult schedules in the NFL. As a result, it seems likely that they will be able to produce in the playoffs.
Baltimore, in particular, is the best overall offense in the playoffs, as objectively measured. At 15 – 2, Kansas City seems like a bit of a statistical outlier considering that they had both an overall mediocre regular season schedule and are only ranked 11th in offensive production. However, statistics don’t tell all of the story – the Chiefs are the 2x defending Super Bowl champs and feature a Hall of Famer at quarterback. The 2024 version of the Chiefs seemed to find ugly ways to win this season, regardless of the numbers, and it seems likely that this will continue. As for Washington, their 6th place overall ranking seems fair considering what we saw this year – Washington blew out bad teams and mostly struggled against the few good teams that they played. Their mid-tier rankings reflect these highs and low.
Of the remaining 8 teams, Houston’s offense was the least effective from a statistical perspective, by a wide margin.
Defense
The following chart shows the defensive rankings in the major statistical categories for each playoff team, ranked just between the 14 playoff teams and not the NFL as a whole:
NFL Playoff teams defensive rankings
| wPts | total yds | pass yds | pass YPA | comp % | # pass TD | sacks | int % | QB rating | rush yds | rush YPA | # rush TD | Red zone TD % | 3rd down conv | Ave | Overall Rank | Opp win % | |
| Eagles (14-3, #2) | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4.067 | 2 | 13 |
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 6 | 6.533 | 5 | 9 |
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 9 | 6 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 7.533 | 7 | 2 |
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 7.600 | 10 | 8 |
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 7 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 7.600 | 10 | 3 |
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 14 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10.400 | 12 | 14 |
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 10 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 10.600 | 13 | 12 |
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 13 | 14 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 11.133 | 14 | 4 |
In terms of defense, you can see that Philadelphia was the top-tier of all of the remaining playoff teams, whereas Washington, Buffalo, and the Rams were the lowest-ranked franchises by a significant margin. Washington’s terrible rush defense brought their overall rankings down by a significant margin.
Rankings summary
This chart shows the combined offensive and defensive rankings for each of the 14 playoff teams, along with the average of both rankings and the difference between the offensive and defensive rankings for each team, sorted by lowest – i.e., best – combined ranking:
NFL Playoff teams average rankings
| Offense | Defense | Ave | Overall Rank | Diff btwn off & def | Opp win % | ||||
| Philly (14-3, #2) | 6.000 | 4.067 | 5.034 | 1 | 1.933 | 13 | |||
| Baltimore (12-5, #3) | 2.615 | 7.533 | 5.074 | 2 | 4.918 | 2 | |||
| Detroit (15-2, #1) | 2.923 | 7.600 | 5.262 | 3 | 4.677 | 3 | |||
| Wash (12-5, #6) | 6.231 | 10.400 | 8.316 | 9 | 4.169 | 14 | |||
| Buffalo (13-4, #2) | 6.154 | 10.600 | 8.377 | 10 | 4.446 | 12 | |||
| Chiefs (15-2, #1) | 9.615 | 7.600 | 8.608 | 11 | 2.015 | 8 | |||
| Houston (10-7, #4) | 11.692 | 6.533 | 9.113 | 12 | 5.159 | 9 | |||
| Rams (10-7, #4) | 11.385 | 11.133 | 11.259 | 14 | 0.252 | 4 | |||
Congratulations. You made it to the end of this little exercise. Trust me, this could have been alot longer, and if I’d had more time, it would have been. There’s a reason that I haven’t gone through this exercise for the past few seasons.
What we can see is that overall, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Detroit had the best regular season statistical production of all of the playoff teams. The fact that Ravens and Lions also had two of the toughest schedules mean that, at least from a purely statistical point of view, I’d place those two teams as the favorites to reach the Super Bowl. Washington’s 9th place ranking feels about right when judging their regular season performance when compared to the other playoff teams.