How Jayden Daniels’ rookie year compares: an historical analysis

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February 24, 2025

by Steve Thomas

Washington football fans experienced something this past season that was . . . unheard of in the history of the team over the last 30 years or so, certain since the dark times of former owner Daniel Snyder first cursed the franchise in 1999: the rise of quarterback Jayden Daniels.  Most people liked his chances to succeed coming out of LSU, but the idea that he was going to rise to the heights that he did, which was the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and some outside consideration for league MVP, was a bit of a pleasant surprise.  What I’m going to take a look at today is how his rookie year compared to other quarterbacks throughout the history of the NFL.  As is my standard of practice for these types of columns, I have no preconceived notions about what the data will reveal before I start and don’t know how this will turn out.  Without further ado, let’s jump right in.  All of these statistics are just for the regular season unless specifically indicated.

Daniels’ 2024 numbers

Daniels played in and started all 17 games this season, as well as three playoff games.  In the regular season, he completed 331 of 480 pass attempts, for a 69.0% completion percentage, 3568 yards, 25 touchdowns, 9 interceptions, 1.9% interception percentage, for a 100.1 quarterback rating.  In addition, he also had 148 carries for 891 yards, 6.0 yards per attempt, and 6 touchdowns.

Quarterback rating

Daniels’ rookie year quarterback rating is ranked fourth in NFL history since 1967[1] for quarterbacks who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 104.9
  2. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 102.4
  3. J. Stroud, 2023, Texans: 100.8
  4. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 100.1
  5. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks: 100.0
  6. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 98.3
  7. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Steelers: 98.1
  8. Baker Mayfield, 2018, Browns: 93.7
  9. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 93.3
  10. Mac Jones, 2021, Patriots: 92.5

It is noteworthy to mention that comparing modern quarterback play to quarterbacks from decades ago isn’t a fair comparison due to massive changes to NFL rules and the modernization of offensive systems.  There’s a reason why not one quarterback who came into the league before 2004 is even in the top 20, with only one, Charlie Batch, from 1998 with the Lions, in the top 25 at 83.5.  As random examples, John Elway posted a 54.9 quarterback rating in 11 games in 1983, and Terry Bradshaw had a 30.4 rating in 13 games, including 8 starts, in 1970.  It is wholly disingenuous to compare the quarterback ratings of modern quarterbacks to those from an earlier eras on an equal basis.  As a result, it’s more accurate to generally refer to this as a “modern” statistic.  It is a valuable statistic, but it isn’t necessarily the be-all, end-all of data points.

Completion percentage

Daniels posted the highest completion percentage in NFL history for a rookie quarterback, once again for quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and started at least 12 games:

  1. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 69.0%
  2. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 67.8%
  3. Mac Jones, 2021, Patriots: 67.6%
  4. Drake Maye, 2024, Patriots: 66.6%
  5. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 66.6%
  6. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Steelers: 66.4%
  7. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 66.3%
  8. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 65.6%
  9. Teddy Bridgewater, 2014, Vikings: 64.4%
  10. Kyler Murray, 2019, Cardinals: 64.4%

Once again, since the modern rules of the game have favored offenses, it isn’t fair to compare modern quarterbacks from decades ago – the NFL has dramatically limited defensive contact with receivers and quarterbacks, which allow for much higher completion percentages.  My two Hall of Fame examples above, John Elway and Terry Bradshaw, posted rookie completion percentages of 47.5% and 38.1%, respectively.  Modern completion percentages are much higher, generally.  This isn’t a dig at Daniels’ performance; it’s just putting it into a realistic context.

Passing yardage

Daniels falls to 14th place in total passing yardage by rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Andrew Luck, 2012, Colts: 4374
  2. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 4336
  3. J. Stroud, 2023, Texans: 4108
  4. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers: 4051
  5. Jameis Winston, 2015, Buccaneers: 4042
  6. Mac Jones, 2021, Patriots: 3801
  7. Carson Wentz, 2016, Eagles: 3782
  8. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 3775
  9. Peyton Manning, 1998, Colts: 3739
  10. Baker Mayfield, 2018, Browns: 3725

 

  1. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 3568

The fact that Daniels isn’t at the top of this list is due in no small part by the fact that Washington was such a run-heavy team.  Also, the same limitation about modern era versus older quarterbacks that affected the quarterback rating and completion percentage stats applies here as well.

Touchdown passes

Daniels is ranked 6th in NFL history in number of touchdown passes by rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 31
  2. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 29
  3. Baker Mayfield, 2018, Browns: 27
  4. Peyton Manning, 1998, Colts: 26
  5. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks: 26
  6. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 25
  7. Daniel Jones, 2019, Giants: 24
  8. Andrew Luck, 2012, Colts: 23
  9. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 23
  10. J. Stroud, 2023, Texans: 23

Nothing new to see here – Daniels is once again in the middle of the top rookie quarterbacks in NFL history, all from the modern era, in touchdown passes.

Interception percentage

Interception percentage is the number of interceptions thrown divided by the total number of pass attempts thrown.  Daniels’ 1.9% in this statistic is 7th-best in NFL history for rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 0.9%
  2. J. Stroud, 2023, Texans: 1.0
  3. Caleb Williams, 2024, Bears: 1.1%
  4. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 1.3%
  5. Gardner Minshew II, 2019, Jaguars: 1.3%
  6. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 1.7%
  7. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 1.9%
  8. Bryce Young, 2023, Panthers: 1.9%
  9. Charlie Batch, 1998, Lions: 2.0%
  10. Derek Carr, 2014, Raiders: 2.0%

Rushing yardage

Daniels rushed for more yardage than any rookie in history since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 891
  2. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 815
  3. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers: 706
  4. Vince Young, 2006, Texans: 552
  5. Kyler Murray, 2019, Cardinals: 544
  6. Caleb Williams, 2024, Bears: 489
  7. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks: 489
  8. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 430
  9. Drake Maye, 2024, Patriots: 421
  10. Blake Bortles, 2014, Jaguars: 419
  11. DeShone Kizer, 2017, Browns: 419

By this measurement, there’s Daniels and Robert Griffin II, then everyone else.

Rushing attempts

Daniels had more rushing attempts than any quarterback in NFL history since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and who started at least 12 games:

  1. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 148
  2. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers: 126
  3. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 120
  4. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks: 94
  5. Kyler Murray, 2019, Cardinals: 93
  6. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 92
  7. Vince Young, 2006, Texans: 83
  8. Caleb Williams, 2024, Bears: 81
  9. DeShone Kizer, 2017, Browns: 77
  10. Trevor Lawrence, 2021, Jaguars: 73

Here, Daniels is far ahead of everyone else, including Robert Griffin.  I suspect that this amount of running will ultimately be unsustainable on a long-term basis due to the high chances of injury.

Rushing yards per attempt

Daniels is tied for 6th-best in NFL history in yards per rushing attempt for rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie”, started at least 12 games, and had at least 50 rushing attempts:

  1. Drake Maye, 2024, Patriots: 7.8
  2. Blake Bortles, 2014, Jaguars: 7.5
  3. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 6.8
  4. Vince Young, 2006, Texans: 6.7
  5. Caleb Williams, 2024, Bears: 6.0
  6. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 6.0
  7. Kyler Murray, 2019, Cardinals: 5.8
  8. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers: 5.6
  9. DeShone Kizer, 2017, Browns: 5.4
  10. Steve Fuller, 1979, Chiefs: 5.3

In other words, only Maye, Bortles, Griffin, and Young were more dangerous runners than Daniels. My only note here is that this is the only list which contains a player whose rookie year was prior to 1998.

Before anyone asks, Lamar Jackson averaged 4.7 yards per carry as a rookie in 2018.  Michael Vick averaged 9.3 yards per attempt as a rookie with the Falcons in 2001, but only started 2 games and only had 31 carries, so he wasn’t eligible for this list.

Total Offense

Total offense is rushing yards plus passing yards minus yards lost due to sacks. By this measurement, Daniels had the 4th-best season in NFL history for rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and started at least 12 games:

  1. Cam Newton, 2011, Panthers: 4497
  2. Andrew Luck, 2012, Colts: 4383
  3. Justin Herbert, 2020, Chargers: 4352
  4. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 4221
  5. Jameis Winston, 2015, Buccaneers: 4065
  6. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 4007
  7. Kyler Murray, 2019, Cardinals: 3957
  8. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 3806
  9. Robert Griffin II, 2012, Redskins: 3798
  10. Trevor Lawrence, 2021, Jaguars: 3737

Wins

Daniels and Washington won 12 games in the regular season.  That number of wins is 3rd-best in NFL history for rookie quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” and started at least 12 games:

  1. Dak Prescott, 2016, Cowboys: 13
  2. Ben Roethlisberger, 2004, Steelers: 13
  3. Jayden Daniels, 2024, Washington: 12
  4. Joe Flacco, 2008, Ravens: 11
  5. Andrew Luck, 2012, Colts: 11
  6. Matt Ryan, 2008, Falcons: 11
  7. Russell Wilson, 2012, Seahawks: 11
  8. Mac Jones, 2021, Patriots: 10
  9. Bo Nix, 2024, Broncos: 10
  10. Kyle Orton, 2005, Bears: 10

First, the NFL went from a 14 game regular season to 16 games in 1978, and went from 16 to 17 games in 2021, so total number of wins is not as good of a measurement across eras as winning percentage.  Unfortunately, our subscription stat service is only organized by total wins for quarterbacks, not winning percentage, and I’m not going to go through the effort to manually adjust these stats.  If the NFL had still been using a 16 game season in 2024, Daniels may have been at 11 wins.  Either way, he won more games than almost any rookie quarterback since 1967.

Playoff success

No rookie quarterback quarterbacks since 1967 who met the definition of “rookie” has ever started in a Super Bowl.  Six have played and lost in a conference championship game, including Daniels this past season, Brock Purdy with the 49ers in 2022-23, Mark Sanchez with the Jets in 2009-10, Joe Flacco with the Ravens in 2008-09, Roethlisberger with the Steelers in 2004-05, and Shaun King with the Buccaneers in 1999-2000.  Daniels is in good company in this regard.

Summary

I hope this doesn’t need to be stated, but quarterback play isn’t just about numbers.  There’s an intangible quality to quarterback play that can’t be measured.  For example, it was immediately obvious to almost everyone that both Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman were elite-level talents who were going to be great, despite some negatives in their rookie year statistics.  Daniels certainly shines in this regard as well – he was doubtlessly the player most responsible for Washington’s resurgence from the depths of despair in 2023.  Also, the statistics I’ve presented here aren’t nearly all of the numbers that exist, but it is a rabbit hole in which I’ve descended enough to make my point.  Daniels would be somewhere in the mix at or near the top of almost any other statistic one could name.

In terms of the stats we’ve discussed in this column, Daniels is in the top 10 of 9 of these lists, which is the most by any player, followed by Nix (also this past season) with 8, then the Redskins’ Griffin and the Chargers’ Herbert with 6.  In terms of the passing stats, Daniels was only #1 in one category, completion percentage, and was somewhere in the middle in the others except for total passing yards, but he was also #1 in two of the three rushing categories, rushing yards and rushing attempts.  By rough evaluation, Justin Herbert appears to have had the best overall rookie passing stats of any quarterback.  As a runner, there are two at the top, overall: Daniels and Griffin.  Overall, nobody, including Herbert or Griffin, approached Daniels’ overall production and excellence in both all phases of quarterback play and results.

So, after going through this exercise, my partially subjective conclusion as to Daniels’ place in history, based on the objective statistics presented here, is that he probably didn’t have the best pure passing year, but overall, he most likely did have the most productive and successful rookie season for a quarterback in history, since 1967.  No rookie in the modern era has excelled in as many different facets of the game as did Daniels.

Finally, I must repeat that statistical comparisons simply aren’t useful between modern day quarterbacks and quarterbacks roughly prior to 2000.  Today’s game is too different to be able to make relevant statistical comparisons.  There’s no telling how some of the all-time greats would have fared under the modern NFL rules and offensive systems.  This doesn’t diminish Daniels’ accomplishments at all; my point is that I’m unwilling to objectively state that his rookie year was better than some of the all-time greats from the early years simply because those players did not show up on any of these lists.

What do you think?  Let me know in the comment section below.

 

 

[1] Our subscription stat service, Stathead, makes note that only rookies since 1967 are included in their service.  This means that while all players in NFL are listed, the only players who qualified as official “rookies” under NFL rules according to Stathead are from 1967 and forward.  I did not go back and manually calculate data prior to 1967.

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