Projecting 2025 Draft Round 1
April 24, 2024
by David Earl
Projecting Round 1
This draft projection has the Dallas Cowboys moving up six spots and an unexpected fall of a wide receiver. The New Orleans Saints get their guy at quarterback, and Washington lands a player where I didn’t see any scenario in which he could fall to pick 29 until now. I did not show the Philadelphia Eagles moving up, as the rumors are all over the place on just how aggressive Howie Roseman will be, but I believe they will move up in the first round for a safety or edge rusher. All trades used this value chart and any scouting report evaluations are from Draft Buzz. So let’s dive into my first round draft projections.
Pick 1: Tennessee Titans, Cameron Ward, QB, University of Miami
Biggest needs: QB, Edge, WR, LB, S
Comment: The top quarterback in this draft. Tennessee will need a lot of convincing to move off this pick. A five-year starter for Miami with a great combination of a strong arm and mobility. Throws accurately on and off the platform, but does need to work on ball security issues. He is the safest potential franchise quarterback in this draft who fits today’s mold for a quarterback.
Pick 2: Cleveland Browns, Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado
Biggest needs: QB, OL, Edge, RB, WR
Comment: There are just too many questions about whether QB Shedeur Sanders is NFL-ready, and this spot is too early for selecting QB Jaxson Dart. Travis Hunter might be the best player in this draft and will not only provide elite coverage ability as a corner but also as a wide receiver on very defined packages. There is an option of a trade back, but I see the Browns staying at two, then trading back into the first round if one of the aforementioned quarterbacks begins to fall.
Pick 3: New York Giants, Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State
Biggest needs: QB, OL, DL, LB, WR
Comment: After signing Russell Wilson, the Giants will hold off on a quarterback again and select the best edge rusher in this draft. Carter has a great first step off the edge and will impact the run game just as well. The Giants will line him opposite edge rusher Brian Burns and form a formidable duo on passing downs. They will form one of the best defensive fronts in football with Dexter Lawrence anchoring the middle of the defensive line.
Pick 4: New England Patriots, Will Campbell, OT, LSU
Biggest needs: OL, DL, WR, RB, TE
Comment: Not too much to say here as the Patriots will bring in protection for Drake Maye in drafting the best offensive tackle in this draft. They could consider a wide receiver, but the option I see would be running back Ashton Jeanty if they decided to not select Campbell.
Pick 5: Jacksonville Jaguars, Will Johnson, CB, Michigan
Biggest needs: DL, CB, S, OL, WR
Comment: Cornerback Will Johnson makes a ton of sense here, unless the Jaguars trade Travon Walker, as some rumors had suggested last month. If they do move Walker, then the selection here would most likely switch to edge rusher Jalon Walker. Seeing that they exercised Travon Walker’s 5th year option and the rumors seemed to have cooled down, Johnson becomes a no-brainer of a selection.
Pick 6: Dallas Cowboys (via Las Vegas Raiders), Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State
Biggest needs: WR, RB, CB, LB, DL
Trade Detail: The Cowboys send their first (12th overall), third (76th overall), fifth (149th overall), 2026 second, and 2026 sixth-round picks for the LA Raiders’ first (6th overall) and third (68th overall) round picks. This deal has the Cowboys sending a total draft capital value of 1,856 points to the Raiders while receiving 1,850 in return.
Comment: This will be the first trade of this draft, and Jerry Jones sells the farm to move up – not for a wide receiver or more defensive help, but for the top running back in the draft. Their running game was solid under Rico Dowdle last season, but they will look to add a more dynamic power runner. This will help take some pressure off quarterback Dak Prescott and prevent their offense from looking so one-dimensional against teams like last season.
Pick 7: New York Jets, Armand Membou, OT, Missouri
Biggest needs: OL, WR, TE, S, DL
Comment: I first had Tyler Warren out of Penn State here, but protecting QB Justin Fields will be a top priority. They will select early enough in the second round for a wide receiver or tight end, so the offensive line just makes the most sense.
Pick 8: Carolina Panthers, Jalon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Biggest needs: Edge, S, CB, WR, DL
Comment: The Panthers’ position of need and best player available work out to their advantage. We could see a surprise selection of safety Malaki Starks out of Georgia, as he has been moving up on NFL team draft boards. Walker is a complete player off the edge, as he plays very strongly against the run and can be very effective in zone coverage.
Pick 9: New Orleans Saints, Jaxson Dart, QB, Mississippi
Biggest needs: CB, OL, WR, DL, QB
Comment: This is the Bo Nix selection of a year ago, as Dart will be the second quarterback off the board. He brings a great combination of size, strength, and mobility with a very strong arm. He will have to improve when under pressure, as his mechanics can become shaky and will show some inaccuracies. Selection here in the top 10 will certainly be looked at as too high, but the intangibles Dart brings will be too tempting for the Saints to pass on him. I very well could see a trade back to make this selection a little more reasonable while bringing in more draft capital.
Pick 10: Chicago Bears, Tyler Warren TE, Penn State
Biggest needs: OL, DL, RB, S, TE
Comment: This selection could just as easily be running back Omarion Hampton, but Warren available here is just too good a weapon to pass. Warren is a good blocking tight end with great hands and an excellent route runner. He excels with contested balls and can be utilized in many ways in the run game, especially in short-yardage situations. The additions the Bears made on the offensive line this off-season, they can afford to go with the skill position at this selection.
Pick 11 San Francisco 49ers, Mason Graham DL, Michigan
Biggest needs: DL, Edge, OL, RB, CB
Comment: The 49ers have areas of need, but the defensive line might be their biggest need heading into the draft. I’d imagine edge rusher Jalon Walker is tops on their board, but they will be more than pleased selecting the best defensive lineman in this draft.
Pick 12: Las Vegas Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys), Kelvin Banks OT, Texas
Biggest needs: RB, WR, CB, OL, LB
Trade Detail: The Dallas Cowboys traded this pick to the Las Vegas Raiders (see details under the Cowboys selection).
Comment: Here is another place RB Omarion Hampton as he is a true Pete Carroll running back but protecting QB Geno Smith will take precedence. With the depth in running back and wide receivers in this draft, they are positioned well in the second and third rounds to address these areas.
Pick 13: Miami Dolphins, Malaki Starks S, Georgia
Biggest needs: OL, DL, S, CB, TE
Comment: The top offensive tackles are off the board, and this being too early for a guard, the Dolphins will shift to the defense. Starks is the best all-around safety in this draft and is a ball hawk. He comes with great instincts against the passing game and has excellent recovery speed when caught out of position. Some have Starks sneaking into the top 10 to the Panthers, which is a real possibility. If Starks is off the board look for them to move back to an edge rusher-needy team.
Pick 14: Cincinnati Bengals (via Indianapolis Colts), Mykel Williams, EDGE, Georgia
Biggest needs: Edge, S, LB, OL, CB
Trade Details: The Bengals send their first (17th overall), third (81st overall) round picks for the Colts’ first (14th overall) pick. This deal has the Bengals sending a total draft capital value of 1,135 points to the Colts while receiving 1,100 in return.
Comment: As edge rushers are beginning to go off the board and the Atlanta Falcons need an impact pass rusher, the Bengals move up 3 spots to address a major need defensively. Williams is the best remaining edge on the board with great size, power, and speed off the edge. There is still some need for development as he can play a bit too high at times, and his initial first-step burst can be inconsistent. His great lateral movement allows him to play the run exceptionally well and quickly drop back into zone coverage.
Pick 15: Atlanta Falcons, Mike Green, EDGE, Marshall
Biggest needs: Edge, DL, CB, OL, S
Comment: This selection could easily go to cornerback Jahdae Barron from Texas, but the Falcons will decide on need over best player available. Green is one of the more explosive edge rushers in this class, but he has limited experience in pass coverage and is a bit undersized. He will need time to develop where whereas Barron has potential to be an impact starter in week 1.
Pick 16: Arizona Cardinals, Matthew Golden, WR, Texas
Biggest needs: OL, WR, Edge, DL, CB
Comment: Golden has been moving up many draft boards and could end up in the top 15, as I have him being the second receiver off the board to the Cardinals. Not only a game breaker in vertical routes with his speed, but runs a full route tree with great understanding of defensive sets. Aligning him opposite Marvin Harrison Jr. will give the Cardinals one of the potentially best tandems in the entire league.
Pick 17: Indianapolis Colts (via Cincinnati Bengals), Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan
Biggest needs: TE, OL, LB, Edge, RB
Trade Detail: The Cincinnati Bengals traded this pick to the Indianapolis Colts (see details under the Bengals selection).
Comment: With cornerback Jahdae Barron still available, this could be a prime spot for either Green Bay or Minnesota to move up. Either move should still allow them to draft a tight end in Loveland or switch gears to offensive tackle Josh Simmons out of Ohio State.
Pick 18: Seattle Seahawks, Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
Biggest needs: OL, WR, CB, S, DL
Comment: A perfect fit for what head coach Mike Macdonald wants to do, as he recognizes and processes routes exceptionally well. Better zone corner than man-to-man but works his hands very well pressing the receiver off the line. Barron is not afraid to get involved in the run game. His size can present an issue at times, especially with the bigger and more physical receivers off the line.
Pick 19: Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama
Biggest needs: LB, CB, Edge, S, OL
Comment: Not much to say here as the Buccaneers have a big need at linebacker and Campbell is by far the best linebacker in this draft.
Pick 20: Denver Broncos, Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona
Biggest needs: RB, WR, CB, TE, DL
Comment: I had the Broncos zeroed in on running back Omarion Hampton here until a surprise fall by wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan. With the depth in this running back class and the level of upside McMillan brings, they waste no time on this selection. Demonstrates elite ball-tracking ability and has versatility to play inside or outside. While he does not possess elite top-end speed, he is exceptionally quick out of routes and does a great job finding openings in the zone. A valuable weapon for second-year QB Bo Nix. If the Colts do trade back with the Packers, then tight end Colston Loveland could also be in play here.
Pick 21: Pittsburgh Steelers, Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Biggest needs: QB, RB, DL, WR, OL
Comment: I thought of many scenarios of the Steelers moving up for Sanders, but recent projections have him falling to this range of the draft. Sanders may not be NFL-ready in year one, but his skill set fits into today’s NFL-style offenses. As he is still developing the ability to diagnose complex defensive looks, he still shows excellent processing skills presnap. Sanders is a perfect candidate to sit for a year to harness his absolute true ceiling as an NFL quarterback, but will he have that opportunity?
Pick 22: Los Angeles Chargers, Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State
Biggest needs: TE, WR, DL, RB, Edge
Comment: The pick fits both need and best player available as the Chargers will need to reload on the receiving core for franchise quarterback Justin Herbert. This could be a spot where the Cleveland Browns could trade back into the first round if Shedeur Sanders or Jaxson Dart falls.
Pick 23: Green Bay Packers, James Pearce Jr., EDGE, Tennessee
Biggest needs: CB, WR, Edge, DL, OL
Comment: Both the cornerback and wide receiver groups are running dry, they select one of the more gifted pure edge rushers in this class. Pearce has an excellent first step off the snap, while his hand and foot technique to set up would-be blockers make him nearly unblockable. He struggles at the point of attack if his initial moves fail and can be delayed in reacting to the run game, allowing him to be out of position at times.
Pick 24: Minnesota Vikings, Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina
Biggest needs: CB, OL, S, LB, DL
Comment: Offensive tackle Josh Simmons could be an option here, but Emmanwori makes the most sense for the Vikings. Aside from some inconsistency issues in zone coverage and aggressive style that could draw some untimely flags, he is ready to be an immediate impact defender. Great speed in a linebacker-style frame who processes what the offense is doing quickly. Excellent sideline to sideline range and is very effective up in the box against the run and as a pass rusher. I would not be surprised to see the Philadelphia Eagles to move ahead of the Vikings if he is available this late in round one.
Pick 25: Houston Texans, Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State
Biggest needs: OL, WR, DL, CB, S
Comment: After trading left tackle Laremy Tunsil and guard Kenyon Green, drafting Josh Simmons is just the obvious selection. He is a tone setter up front with exceptional lateral mobility that allows him to mirror speed rushers. Excellent contact balance as he maintains power and control throughout his blocks. Of course, his knee injury from October will be of concern as he is a top 20 pick if healthy.
Pick 26: Los Angeles Rams, Maxwell Hairston, CB, University of Kentucky
Biggest needs: LB, CB, OL, TE, WR
Comment: I could see the Rams looking to move out of the first round, as cornerback and offensive line talent here is very limited. If they can’t find a trade partner, I see a focus more on need here than best player available. An edge rusher or defensive line selection would be their biggest bang for their buck, but Hairston fills a huge hole defensively.
Pick 27: Buffalo Bills (via Baltimore Ravens), Kenneth Grant, DL, Michigan
Biggest needs: CB, DL, WR, Edge, S
Trade Details: The Bills send their first (30th overall), Fourth (132nd overall), and sixth (177th overall) round picks for the Ravens’ first (27th overall) pick. This deal has the Bills sending a total draft capital value of 681 points to the Ravens while receiving 680 in return.
Comment: The Bills move up to take the best remaining defensive lineman in this draft. Some rankings have Oregon’s Derrick Harmon ahead of Grant, but this selection favors the more battle-tested Grant. He has an excellent first step with great lateral movement, making him excellent against the run. Still needs more refinement in the pass rush, but his core strength and athletic makeup gives him a very high ceiling as a pass rusher provided he can maximize his ability.
Pick 28: Detroit Lions, Shemar Stewart, EDGE, Texas A&M
Biggest needs: Edge, OL, S, DL, WR
Comment: After a disastrous defensive performance heading into the playoffs and being eliminated from the playoffs by Washington, the defense will be the focus. Getting an athletic edge rusher in Stewart will be a necessity. He will need to develop a less predictable approach and clean up his hand technique, but the raw athletic ability just screams off the paper.
Pick 29: Washington Commanders, Omarion Hampton, RB, North Carolina
Biggest needs: Edge, CB, WR, S, OL
Comment: There was no way I saw Hampton being available at pick 29 as some projected as of recently until I put together this mock draft. With the ripple effect of the Jaguars selecting cornerback Will Johnson 5th overall and receiver Tetairoa McMillan falling to the Broncos, there is a realistic chance this selection is available at this pick. The combination of power, speed, vision, and having good natural hands as a receiver makes Hampton a slam-dunk selection. He becomes a true workhorse runner who can separate and outrun the second and third levels of the defense once in the open field. If Hampton does get selected sooner, I see Washington giving serious consideration to running back TreVeyon Henderson or Edge Nic Scourton.
Pick 30: Baltimore Ravens (via Buffalo Bills), Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon
Biggest needs: OL, CB, S, DL, Edge
Trade Detail: The Buffalo Bills traded this pick to the Baltimore Ravens (see details under the Bills selection).
Comment: Regardless of the extension to left tackle Ronnie Stanley, who is 31 years old, the Ravens will be looking to groom their future left tackle. Insert Josh Conerly Jr. at right tackle and move Roger Rosengarten inside, the Ravens will potentially have one of the best offensive line units in the NFL.
Pick 31: Kansas City Chiefs, Grey Zanbel, OG, North Dakota State
Biggest needs: DL, OL, Edge, S, WR
Comment: Losing tackle Josh Conerly to the Ravens hurts but they the Chiefs take the best offensive guard in this draft and fill a big need. While there are some good defensive edge rushers available like Texas A&M’s Nic Scourton, this past Super Bowl will force their hand to address the offensive line.
Pick 32: Philadelphia Eagles, Walter Nolen, DL, Mississippi
Biggest needs: S, DL, CB, Edge, OL
Comment: I very much doubt the Eagles stay at this pick as I absolutely see Howie Roseman being aggressive. They own 16 draft picks and need an impact safety or edge rusher. Edge rushers are thinned out here, and the upside in defensive lineman Walter Nolan is greater than edge rusher Nic Scourton, especially when considering their needs. The move to keep an eye on is trading up for safety Malaki Starks if he somehow unexpectedly falls. The most realistic move is moving ahead of the Vikings for safety Nick Emmanwori.