Game Preview, Week 10: Redskins at Buccaneers
November 9, 2018
by Steve Thomas
One thing we can say about the Washington Redskins is that it’s never dull with this franchise. This isn’t the type of franchise that just blissfully rolls along every week, consistently productive and winning, and calm and professional in the front office. I can’t remember a week since the dawn of The Hog Sty in which we comfortably predicted an easy Redskins win. Despite the fact that on paper during the offseason this looked like a solid win, it’s actually a very difficult contest, with the Redskins in turmoil and the Buccaneers turning into an offensive powerhouse under no less than…wait for it…Ryan Fitzpatrick, unbelievably enough. Yes, even though the betting line on this game is just Tampa -3, this is shaping up to be a tough game for Washington to win. Not impossible, mind you, but alot of things need to go right for that to happen. It’s true that Tampa Bay is 3 – 5, but it’s also true to say that they’ve played most of the top teams in the NFC, have already had 5 road games, and were burdened by an underperforming headcase, Jameis Winston, at quarterback for half the season thusfar. Watch out everyone, because if the Redskins don’t start out playing well immediately on Sunday, this one has the potential to get ugly, fast. Our game preview is below.
Game time & location: Sunday, November 11, 2018, 1:00 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL; Gates open 11:30 a.m. ET parking lots open 9:30 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Thom Brennaman, Chris Spielman, Shannon Spake
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Buccaneers radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 226 (Buccaneers broad.) Sirius: 134 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Buccaneers roster: Click here
Buccaneers depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Falcons: 10 – 10 (last 10: 5 – 5)
Last meeting: W, October 25, 2015, 31 – 30
Early odds: Tampa Bay, -3
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
The Redskins’ offensive line needs to not be terrible
We spent a significant amount of time on our game preview show (listen here) discussing the Redskins’ offensive line, which is being rebuilt on the fly this week after injuries to Brandon Scherff, Shawn Lauvao (both gone for the year) Trent Williams, and Morgan Moses. The truth is that it’s highly unlikely that a group who met for the first time on Tuesday is going to be capable of playing up to the level necessary to get Adrian Peterson running at a level necessary to allow the Redskins offense to be productive. I could be wrong, but the odds are against it. What is a fact is that the five players who end up starting this game need to at least block in pass pro in minimally effective fashion, keeping Alex Smith upright long enough to get the short passing game working, and run block enough to allow the hall of fame running back to be effective. The bottom line is that the Redskins can’t win if the offensive line is a disaster, particularly when facing Jason Pierre-Paul, who has terrorized the Redskins for years. It’s that simple, and this is the most important key to this game.
Alex Smith must silence his critics
Whether you want to hear it or not, Alex Smith actually played fairly well against the Falcons given the circumstances. It’s not likely that he’ll have a significant amount of time to allow deeper plays to develop on Sunday, but he needs to continue to effectively hit his reads and not miss obvious open receivers as he has at times this year. Washington will not be able to win this game by scoring 14 points – Tampa Bay has put up massive amounts of points nearly all season, and Smith needs to be able to lead his team in a more efficient and capable manner than he happened thusfar this season. Basically, the Redskins need Smith at his best to counteract such a powerful opposing offense.
The Redskins defense need to stop Tampa Bay’s big play ability
Tampa Bay essentially has no running game to speak of (yes, I know; famous last words), but what they are is a high risk, big play offense featuring two of the best big play guys in the league in Mike Evans and old friend Desean Jackson. Despite being publicly unhappy this season, Jackson is actually averaging an astounding 22.4 yards per reception this year. Tampa Bay may be the most dangerous 3 – 5 team you’ll ever come across, and it’s vitally important that the Redskins don’t allow an abundance of these quick-strike touchdowns to happen, because it they do, this game may get away from Washington quickly. How do they do that? Significant pass rush from the defensive line without the assistance of blitzing inside linebackers and safeties, and a secondary that’s on their toes and not blowing coverages. Watch for the Redskins to drop 7 in coverage most of the game in an attempt to counteract the Buccaneer passing attack.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Desean Jackson and Mike Evans vs Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar
Washington fans are all too aware of the type of things of which Jackson is capable. He’s way too fast for anyone on the Redskins defense, including Norman and Dunbar, and the Redskins’ coaching staff would be fools to leave Jackson alone in one on one coverage, so expect safety help (but Steve, won’t that leave 6’5” pro bowler Mike Evans alone? Yes, I know; if you have a better idea, I’m all ears). Regardless, this is definitely one of the most critical matchups to watch, because DJax streaking all alone down the sidelines with a Redskins corner flailing along behind him isn’t something any of us want to see.
Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Morgan Moses and Ty Nsekhe
Despite the extremely poor results the Tampa defense has achieved this year overall, Jason Pierre-Paul in particular is having a good year, with 8 sacks thusfar, and was a noted Redskins killer during his years with the Giants. He’s probably licking his chops at the thought of facing a hobbled Morgan Moses. Between Ty Nsekhe, who is a legitimate starting-quality left tackle (listen to our extended interview with him from a couple years ago here), and Moses, they need to figure out how to keep Alex Smith upright, because with defensive tackle Gerald McCoy going up against a couple of street free agents starting at guard, Smith will need every advantage he can get.
Adrian Peterson vs. everyone
The fact of the matter is that the 2018 Washington Redskins ride or die with Adrian Peterson. He’s had quality days in each of the Redskins five victories, and Washington lost the 3 games in which he didn’t have success. It’s been apparent for weeks now that he’s the most important player on offense. The team needs to develop some sort of plan for minimizing the effect of the new offensive line and create opportunities for him to gain significant yardage, because history says that they won’t win if they don’t. Just think: at this time last year, most fans thought Jay Gruden was a pass-happy freak who didn’t want the ball. This year, the only way the Redskins can win is on the ground. Funny how fast things can change.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Saturday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Buccaneers |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O | DE V. Curry, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| CB Q. Dunbar, shin; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: Q | T D. Dotson, knee/shoulder; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| RB C. Thompson, rib; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR M. Evans, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| T M. Moses, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | RB R. Jones, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| T T. Williams, thumb; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | CB M.J. Stewart, foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | RB P. Barber, ankle; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| TE J. Reed, back; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP | OL E. Smith, hip/wrist; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| LB R. Anderson, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | DE J. Pierre-Paul; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| RB K. Bibbs, shoulder; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB D. Johnson, forearm; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| S M. Nicholson, hip; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB G. Stroman hip; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
Purely from a statistical standpoint, the Redskins fell slightly across the board on offense as a result of the Falcons game, but not much has really changed since the early part of the season. Most of the passing stats are in the bottom third – total passing yards, (27th), passing yards per attempt (25th), completion percentage (23rd). Despite his poor game this past week, Adrian Peterson is still hovering near the top of the NFL in total yardage (5th). The Redskins remain a bottom third team in both third down conversions (21st) and red zone scoring (22nd). Among the 20 teams that have had their bye weeks, Washington is 14th in scoring. They are 25th in yards per play, which is indicative of the Redskins’ plodding offense. However, Tampa Bay has one of the most vulnerable defenses in the NFL, maybe the most vulnerable, so if the Redskins are unable to put up big numbers this week, it might just be that they simply are unable to do so.
Defensively, the Redskins’ stats took a sharp nosedive in all areas thanks to the Atlanta game. Some key stats: the team’s yards per game ranking fell by six spots down to 10th in the NFL and rushing yards per attempt fell 7 spots to 13th. Washington is now ranked 23rd in third down conversion defense and 20th in red zone defense. Opposing quarterbacks are earning an average quarterback rating of 94.8, which is ranked 22nd in the league. Essentially, what has happened over the last week is that the Redskins rushing defense went from being very highly ranked to upper-mid range, and the passing defense fell to middle of the pack. The Buccaneers have one of the most dangerous offenses in the NFL, so it is entirely possible that the defensive numbers will continue to fall.
Record: 5 – 3 (1st) (Away: 2 – 1; NFC: 5 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 598 – 584 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 25 (points) (trend +1) / 27 (total yards) (trend even) / 25 (yards per game) (trend even) / 25 (yards per play) (trend even) / 27 (passing yards) (trend even) / 25 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 14 (rushing yards) (trend even) /14 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -1) |
| Points for | 160 |
| Yards per game | 343.9 |
| Passing
|
274 att (24th); 174 comp; 63.5% comp per. (23rd); 6.8 Y/A; 1776 net yds; 9 TD; 3 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (274 att, 1867 yds (22nd), 63.5% comp perc (24th), 9 TDs / 3 Int, 89.8 QB rating (23rd) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (340 yds (78th), 53 tgts (43rd), 33 rec (53rd), 1 TD, 10.3) |
| Rushing | 225 att (13th); 975 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 121.9 Y/G (10th); 7 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (136 att (5th), 604 yds (5th), 4 TD, 4.4 Y/A (24th), long 64) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 16 / 8_ |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 31:47/ 2 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 37.96 / 21 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 52.17% / 22 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 8 (points) (trend -4) / 7 (total yards) (trend -5) / 10 (yards per game surrendered) (trend -6) / 13 (yards per play) (trend -7) / 14 (passing yards) (trend -6) / 12 (passing yards per att.) (trend -8) / 4 (rushing yards) (trend -2) / 13 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -7) |
| Points against | 172 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 343.5 |
| Opponent’s passing | 299 att (18th); 199 comp; 66.6% comp perc. (25th); 7.3 Y/A; 2033 net yds; 15 TDs; QB Rating 94.8 (22nd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 170 att (2nd); 715 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 7 TD; 89.4 Y/G (5th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 23 / 11 / Ioannidis (6.5) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (69) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 7 / 14 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 42.27% / 23 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 60.87% / 20 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 17.1 Y/R (31st), 15 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (24th), 7 returns, long 12 yards (32nd), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.5 Y/R (14th), 8 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 6.7 Y/R (10th), 16 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 43.1 Y/P (24th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 7 / 14 / +7 / 5
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 56 / 16
Buccaneers:
The Buccaneers have one of the most dangerous offenses in the entire NFL: #1 in passing yards despite having had their bye week; #4 in passing yards per attempt, #7 in points, and #3 in total yards gained. However, Tampa Bay has two Achilles heels, interceptions and their running game. Tampa Bay has the worst turnover ratio in the NFL at -15, and they have a terrible rushing attack by essentially every measure. However, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick is a significant step up from Jameis Winston from a statistical standpoint (112.9 quarterback rating for Fitzpatrick vs 74.7 for Winston; Fitzpatrick has thrown 7 interceptions in 5 games started, whereas Winston has thrown 10 in 3 games started. Wide receiver Mike Evans has 786 receiving yards, and Desean Jackson is averaging 22.4 yards per reception. Yikes. This is an extremely tough matchup for the Redskins and has the possibility of disaster written all over it.
Tampa Bay is as bad on defense as they are good on offense. This defense is a complete mess by nearly every measure. They are last in the league in points, meaning they’ve given up the most points despite having only played 8 games. They are 27th in total yards and 29th in yards per play. They are last in the league in both interceptions (1 on the season), red zone defense, with opponents scoring touchdowns an astounding 90% of the time, completion percentage (73.9%), and quarterback rating (124.9). This is an absolutely horrid defense. Its only redeeming qualities are that they aren’t terrible in third down defense (15th), they aren’t quite as bad against the run, and Jason Pierre-Paul has 8 sacks. Other than that, there just isn’t much good to say. The Redskins can definitely use this week as a get-well event.
Record: 3 – 5 (4th) (Home: 2 – 1; NFC: 2 – 3)
All-time franchise record: 258 – 409 – 1
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
7 (points) / 3 (total yards) / 2 (yards per game) / 4 (yards per play) / 1 (passing yards) / 4 (passing yards per att.) / 30 (rushing yards) / 29 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 229 |
| Yards per game | 446.8 |
| Passing | 333 att (7th); 218 comp; 65.5% comp per. (15th); 8.9 Y/A; 2853 net yds; 23 TDs; 17 Int |
| Passing leader | Fitzpatrick (184 att, 1793 yds (23rd), 66.3% comp per., 17 TDs / 7 Int, 112.9 QB rating (5th)) |
| Reception leader | Evans (786 yds (5th), 78 targets (13th), 47 rec (21st), 4 TD, 16.7 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 191 att (23rd); 721 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 90.1 Y/G (30th); 5 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Barber (104 att, 376 yds (27th), 1 TD, 3.6 Y/A (41st), long 28 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 24 / 19 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:32 / 11 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 46.32% / 4 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 63.33% / 13 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 32 (points) / 27 (total yards) / 29 (yards per game surrendered) / 31 (yards per play) / 27 (passing yards) / 31 (passing yards per att.) / 10 (rushing yards) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 275 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 414.2 |
| Opponent’s passing | 291 att (12th); 215 comp; 73.9% comp per. (32nd); 8.9 Y/A; 2457 net yds; 22 TD; QB Rating 124.3 (32nd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 194 att (9th); 857 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 12 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 18 / 26 / Pierre-Paul (8.0) |
| Tackles leader | David (64) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 1 / 32 / Evans (1) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 38.71% / 15 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 90.0% / 32 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 15.4 Y/R (32nd), 13 returns, long 29 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.0 Y/R (22nd), 18 returns, long 16 yards (26th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 21.0 Y/R (7th), 10 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 9.6 Y/R (24th), 15 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 44.5 Y/P (16th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 21 / 6 / -15 / 32
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 62 / 24
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com