Game Preview, Week 12: Redskins at Cowboys
November 21, 2018
by Steve Thomas
I don’t think it’s possible to underestimate the importance of this game for both the Redskins and the Cowboys, and for that matter, the entire NFC East. A Washington win means that the Redskins will have both a two game lead and the tiebreaker over their hated rivals, meaning that in order to win the division, Dallas would then have to make up a full 3 games on the NFC East-leading Redskins. A loss would mean that Dallas and Washington will be tied at 6 – 5 records and will have split the season series, meaning that the NFC East becomes a whole new ballgame. Plus, this is a nationally televised game on Thanksgiving Day with the entire football world watching. So, yes, this is a must win game, and in terms of mid-season contests, it doesn’t get any bigger than this. Everyone knows that history hasn’t been kind to Washington in this matchup or in nationally televised games recently, meaning that the Redskins will have to buck a trend or two, but it can be done. Put bluntly, it must be done if the Redskins expect to win the division this season. It’s make or break time. Our game preview is below.
Game time & location: Thursday, November 22, 2018, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX; Parking lots open at 10:30 a.m.; gates open at 1:30 p.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Cowboys radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 226 / 88 (Redskins / Nat’l broad.) Sirius: 82 / 88 (Redskins / Nat’l broad.); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Cowboys roster: Click here
Cowboys depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Cowboys: 43 – 70 – 2 (last 10: 3 – 7) (last 5: 1 – 4)
Last meeting: W, October 21, 2018, 20 – 17
Early odds: Dallas, -7.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Stop the Dallas run game and the Redskins win
Dallas has rushed for less than 100 yards as a team in four of their five losses this year. The key to defeating this team is to limit their efficiency on the ground. The Redskins did exactly that in the first matchup back in October, with Ezekiel Elliott having the second-worst game of his career. Quarterback Dak Prescott is extremely athletic and a talented runner, but he hasn’t shown that he can be a high-quality pocket passer, no matter what Jerry Jones thinks. If the Redskins can keep Elliott at another below-average output, and keep Prescott more or less in the pocket, Washington will have a great chance of winning this game.
Put Colt McCoy in a position to succeed
McCoy taking over for the injured Alex Smith certainly brought a new energy to the team towards the end of the Texans game, and he should perform well as the starter for the rest of the season. All the same, though, the rest of the offense needs to make things as smooth as possible for him, particularly considering all of the injuries and the gravity of the moment. What I mean by this is that the team needs to have outstanding execution this week; in particular, the offensive line needs to minimize breakdowns in pass protection. McCoy does not need to be constantly running for his life or feel like he has to do it all himself in his first start in two years, on national television in a crucial game against the team’s biggest rival. Make it easy for Colt, Redskins.
Get rolling early
If there’s one thing the Redskins have proven this season, it’s that they don’t have the ability to dig themselves out of a hole and take a lead – the Texans game was as close as this team has come all season, and it was ultimately a losing effort. Especially in a hostile environment on the road, if the Redskins can look sharp on offense early and take a lead in the first quarter, they will help their cause immensely. Letting Dallas get their offense running effectively and scoring first in the game most likely isn’t going to be an indicator for success. If Washington wins the coin toss, they need to take the ball first instead of deferring, then drive right down the field and get a touchdown. Scoring first has proven to be the most critical win-loss factor this season.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Ezekiel Elliot vs. Redskins linebackers
As I’ve said, Elliott is the key to Dallas’ success. If the Redskins can only do one thing well on Thursday, it needs to be stopping Elliott. In order to do that, Washington needs to have a more successful effort from Mason Foster and Zach Brown. Both of those players have had repeated failures in run defense in multiple games, including last week. Foster and Brown must be at their best in order to limit Elliott, who despite his immensely unlikeable persona is truly one of the best running backs in the league. Watch for whether Foster and Brown seem to be out of position and not following their responsibilities, because if they don’t, it’s likely that Elliott will have a big day, and that’s not good.
Demarcus Lawrence vs Trent Williams/Ty Nsekhe and Morgan Moses
Demarcus Lawrence has had some monster games against the Redskins, and has terrorized more than one Redskins backfield. As I said above, the last thing McCoy needs in this moment is constant harassment from the All-Pro end. Watch for the matchup between Lawrence and Trent Williams, if he plays, or Ty Nsekhe as his backup, and Morgan Moses. If you see Lawrence consistently getting into the backfield and causing problems, it’s pretty likely that the Redskins will have a long day. Williams/Nsekhe and Moses need to limit Lawrence’s ability to disrupt in order to provide McCoy time to operate and to provide rushing lanes for Adrian Peterson.
La’el Collins vs. Ryan Kerrigan
The Redskins need to make every effort to keep Dak Prescott in the pocket, and one way to do that is for the Redskins’ Pro Bowl outside linebacker to make life miserable for the Dallas quarterback. Kerrigan needs to consistently beat Collins, collapse the pocket, and seal the edges (which is something at times he’s not good at), not only in order to contain Prescott, but to put him on the ground as much as possible. Stopping Prescott and Elliott are the two keys to this game, and Ryan Kerrigan needs to be a big part of this effort. Keep an eye out on how well he’s doing against the Dallas right tackle throughout the game.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Tuesday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful
| Redskins | Cowboys |
| WR J. Crowder, ankle; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP | WR T. Austin, groin; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP |
| RB S. Perine, calf; Mon: DNP; Tues: LP | WR M. Gallup, NIR; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP |
| RB C. Thompson, rib; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP | DL D. Irving, ankle; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP |
| OL T. Bergstrom, knee; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | LB S. Lee, hamstring; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP |
| CB Q. Dunbar, shin; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | C A. Redmond, concussion; Mon: not listed; Tues: DNP |
| T M. Moses, knee; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | TE G. Swaim, wrist: ; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP |
| T T. Nsekhe, ankle; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | DE T. Charlton, shoulder; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| DL D. Payne, shoulder; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | DT M. Collins, knee; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| RB A. Peterson, shoulder; Mon: LP; Tues: FP | G Z. Martin, knee; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| T T Williams, thumb; Mon: LP; Tues: LP | DE D. Ross, calf; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| LB R. Anderson, shoulder; Mon: FP; Tues: FP | T T. Smith, neck; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| RB K. Bibbs, shoulder; Mon: FP; Tues: FP | G C. Williams, knee; Mon: LP; Tues: LP |
| K D. Hopkins, right groin; Mon: FP; Tues: FP | LB J. Thomas, foot; Mon: FP; Tues: FP |
| QB C. McCoy, right thumb,/left shoulder; Mon: FP; Tues: FP | DT A. Woods, concussion; Mon: FP; Tues: FP |
| TE J. Reed, hip; Mon: FP; Tues: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
Statistically, last week’s game against the Texans brought nothing new. Most of the offensive rankings remain mostly static, meaning they didn’t move up or down in comparison to the rest of the NFL. The Redskins still haven’t scored many points (ranked 27th) or yards (25th), and are mediocre in the red zone (20th) and on third downs (20th). They are now, overall, a mediocre rushing team with middle of the pack numbers – 13th in both yards per attempt and rushing yards. Adrian Peterson is still near the top of the rankings in rushing yards (7th) and carries (5th), but his effectiveness has dropped somewhat recently (4.2 yards per carry vs more than 4.5 earlier this season) as the injuries along the offensive line piled up. On another note, Washington is one of the best teams in the NFL in controlling the clock (3rd), and are quite frankly keeping themselves in games due to their outstanding +12 turnover ratio, which is second-best in the league.
Defensively, Washington is still doing fine in the most important stat, points surrendered, at 198, which is fifth in the NFL. What started out the season as a team strength, run defense, continues to statistically plummet, as Washington is now a middle of the pack unit in this area, giving up 4.3 yards per attempt, which is 14th in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks are posting an average QB rating of 91.9, which is also ranked 14th. The Redskins defense has been very good in the red zone, only allowing opposing teams to score touchdowns on just 48.39% of their trips inside the 20 yard line, which is fifth-best in the league.
The Redskins continue to be an absolute abomination on kickoffs and punt returns. While the team’s overall rankings in those areas aren’t at the very bottom of the league (31st and 26th, respectively), they are still awful, and the team is last in the NFL in both longest kickoff (27 yards) and punt return (12 yards). They essentially haven’t have a single “plus” return all year. Any change at all for the better in this area would be an improvement.
Record: 6 – 4 (1st) (Away: 3 – 1; NFC: 6 – 2) (NFC East: 2 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 599 – 585 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 27 (points) (trend even) / 25 (total yards) (trend +2) / 25 (yards per game) (trend +1) / 26 (yards per play) (trend even) / 25 (passing yards) (trend +1) / 27 (passing yards per att.) (trend -1) / 13 (rushing yards) (trend -2) /13 (rushing yards per att.) (trend even) |
| Points for | 197 |
| Yards per game | 331.5 |
| Passing
|
340 att (20th); 211 comp; 62.1% comp per. (24th); 6.6 Y/A; 2100 net yds; 11 TD; 5 Int |
| Passing leader | Smith (328 att, 2180 yds (24th), 62.5% comp perc (24th), 10 TDs / 5 Int, 85.7 QB rating (25th) |
| Receiving leader | Reed (462 yds (56th), 70 tgts (31st), 44 rec (37th), 2 TD, 10.5 YPC) |
| Rushing | 279 att (10th); 1215 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 121.5 Y/G (12th); 9 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (171 att (5th), 723 yds (7th), 6 TD, 4.2 Y/A (31st), long 64) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 24 / 11 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 31:24/ 3 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 38.2 / 20 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 55.17% / 20 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 5 (points) (trend even) / 15 (total yards) (trend even) / 15 (yards per game surrendered) (trend +2) / 17 (yards per play) (trend even) / 23 (passing yards) (trend +1) / 21 (passing yards per att.) (trend -4) / 6 (rushing yards) (trend -1) / 14 (rushing yards per att.) (trend -2) |
| Points against | 198 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 356.9 |
| Opponent’s passing | 364 att (22nd); 244 comp; 67.0% comp perc. (25th); 7.7 Y/A; 2612 net yds; 16 TDs; QB Rating 91.9 (14th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 225 att (4th); 957 yds; 4.3 Y/A; 7 TD; 95.7 Y/G (6th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 28 / 10 / Ioannidis (7.5) |
| Tackles leader | Foster (89) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 11 / 4 / Swearinger (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 43.22% / 26 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 48.39% / 5 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 17.7 Y/R (31st), 20 returns, long 27 yards (32nd), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.7 Y/R (26th), 7 returns, long 12 yards (32nd), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 22.0 Y/R (12th), 9 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 7.3 Y/R (10th), 18 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 43.5 Y/P (24th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 13 / 25 / +12 / 2
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 70 / 21
Cowboys:
Statistically, the Cowboys’ offense is simple to describe: they are a very successful unit on the ground – 4th in total rushing yards and 4th in yards per attempt – and unsuccessful in the air (28th in passing yards and 23rd in yards per attempt) As unlikeable as he is to some on a personal level, Ezekiel Elliott continues to prove that he is the real deal in terms of production, with 953 yards for the year and a 5.0 yards per attempt pace, which is 8th in the league. As goes Elliott, so go the Cowboys. He and the rushing game remain the driving offensive force on this team; Dallas is 30th in passing attempts, and quarterback Dak Prescott is ranked 21st in QB rating. One other offensive stat that really jumps off the page is sacks: 34 on the year, ranked 29th, despite the famed offensive line that is supposedly one of the best. Prescott’s style of play causes some of those sacks, yes, but the Cowboys are vulnerable in that area.
Defensively, Dallas has performed at a high statistical level almost all year – 3rd in points surrendered, 8th in yards, 10th in passing yards, and 3rd in red zone defense. The statistical weak points are opposing quarterback rating (average of 100.6 (26th)), third down conversions (29th), and interceptions (just 4 on the year, ranked 28th). In other words, Adrian Peterson’s fine day against Dallas back in October notwithstanding, teams just don’t run much on the Cowboys, but can see at least some success in the air.
Record: 5 – 5 (2nd) (Home: 3 – 1; NFC: 4 – 3; NFC East: 2 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 507 – 379 – 6
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
25 (points) / 27 (total yards) / 27 (yards per game) / 22 (yards per play) / 28 (passing yards) / 23 (passing yards per att.) / 4 (rushing yards) / 4 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 203 |
| Yards per game | 327.0 |
| Passing | 306 att (30th); 197 comp; 64.4% comp per. (21st); 7.0 Y/A; 1937 net yds; 11 TDs; 5 Int |
| Passing leader | Prescott (305 att, 2138 yds (25th), 64.6% comp per. (21st), 11 TDs / 5 Int, 90.3 QB rating (21st)) |
| Reception leader | Beasley (454 yds (62nd), 59 targets (49th), 45 rec (32nd), 2 TD, 10.1 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 270 att (13th); 1333 yds; 4.9 Y/A; 133.3 Y/G (4th); 9 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Elliott (191 att, 953 yds (2nd), 5 TDs, 5.0 Y/A (8th), long 41 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 34 /29 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:02 / 20 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 37.4% / 24 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 51.72% / 24 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 3 (points) / 8 (total yards) / 8 (yards per game surrendered) / 9 (yards per play) / 10 (passing yards) / 21 (passing yards per att.) / 5 (rushing yards) / 3 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 190 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 331.1 |
| Opponent’s passing | 328 att (7th); 229 comp; 69.8% comp per. (29th); 7.7 Y/A; 2361 net yds; 13 TD; QB Rating 100.6 (26th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 259 att (17th); 950 yds; 3.7 Y/A; 6 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 28 / 10 / Lawrence (8.0) |
| Tackles leader | Vander Esch (85) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 4 / 28 / Vander Esch (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 44.62% / 29 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 46.43% / 3 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 24.5 Y/R (6th), 6 returns, long 35 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.1 Y/R (29th), 27 returns, long 22 yards (23rd), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 23.4 Y/R (22), 14 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 7.7 Y/R (14), 22 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 45.3 Y/P (13th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 10 / 10 / 0 / 20
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 56 / 3
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com