Free Agency 2019: Quarterbacks

February 27, 2019

by Steve Thomas

We’re in the heart of free agency now, folks, so we’re going to continue to plow through review and analysis of available players at positions of need for the Redskins.  I previously wrote about tight ends (read it  here), safeties (read it here), and guards (read it here), so we’ll take a look at quarterbacks this week.  Certainly, with the severe leg injury to Alex Smith, this position is at a critical point right now.  The only other quarterback currently on the roster is Colt McCoy, who’s coming off a broken leg of his own but apparently progressing well.  Last year’s emergency fill-ins, Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson, are both free agents, so the Redskins have no choice but to make at least one move, most likely two, and maybe – if they really wanted to be progressive – three.  Don’t hold your breath on that last one, but the bottom line is that Washington is going to do….something, at least.

The Redskins have a bit less than approximately $20M to spend in free agency, which isn’t a ton of money, particularly for a team in need of multiple quarterback.  NFL teams typically don’t spend more than about 15% of their total cap space on quarterbacks, although that’s certainly not a hard and fast rule.  With Alex Smith and Colt McCoy on the roster for a total of $23.7M in 2019, Washington can spend approximately $5M before hitting that rough limit.  Certainly, starting quarterback money, $15M+, is dramatically over what any team would spend on a percentage cap basis.  That’s not to say the Redskins might not do something completely out of the realm of rationality, but it would be a surprising and dumb move from a big-picture salary cap perspective.

For every other position group I’ve reviewed thusfar, I automatically discarded available free agents over the age of 30 because the Redskins should be in building mode, and signing older players doesn’t further that goal.  They probably will sign older players, but it’s not a great idea.  The quarterback position is a bit different, though, in that no quarterback Washington signs this offseason is going to be a long-term solution.  Assuming Smith cannot come back (which we don’t know to be true or not true), the Redskins may end up starting Colt this coming season, even if the team ends up spending a high draft pick on a quarterback.  Even if Smith comes back to start the season, which seems very unlikely given his current health status, the Redskins still need to bring in another quarterback.  Ideally, the backup, whether that’s McCoy backing up Smith or someone else backing up McCoy, will have enough experience to be able to step in once the seemingly inevitable injury happens.  In any case, the third stringer should be a young developmental type.

This year’s free agent class isn’t strong, which isn’t surprising given that most starting-quality quarterbacks never make it to free agency.  Nonetheless, though, there are a few worthwhile candidates who can probably come in and help the team.  More importantly, they are available and the Redskins essentially have no choice but to select one, so let’s take a look at the list.

The top of the heap

1. Nick Foles, 6’6” / 243, Eagles, age 30. Foles, who was drafted in round 3 of the 2012 draft out of the University of Arizona by the Eagles, had a complicated contract with Philadelphia, but the bottom line is that he is now an unrestricted free agent unless the Eagles place a franchise tag on him. That’s very unlikely, so he will probably make it to the open market.  Foles has completed 61.6% of his passes over his career, with 11,165 yards, 68 touchdowns, 33 interceptions, and an 88.5 quarterback rating.  He spent the 2012 through 2014 seasons with Philadelphia.  The Eagles traded Foles to the Rams in 2015, but the Rams released him at the end of the season upon his request after they drafted Jared Goff.  He returned to the Eagles in 2017, where he won a Super Bowl in place of the injured Carson Wentz.  Foles’ 119.2 quarterback rating in 2013 seems to have been an anomaly, as he hasn’t come close to that level of performance since then.  Foles is not the perfect quarterback and has plenty of faults, but the bottom line is that it is highly probable that some team buys the hype and gives him a full value contract.  Foles is absolutely way out of the Redskins’ price range and will undoubtedly not be Washington’s next signal caller.

The second tier

2. Teddy Bridgewater, 6’2” / 215, Saints, age 26. Bridgewater was a 2014 first round pick by the Vikings out of the University of Louisville. For his career, in 35 games, he has started 29, completing 64.6% of his passes for 6,268 yards, 29 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, for an 85.9 quarterback rating.  He has also run for 403 yards on 105 carries, for an average of 3.8 yards per carry.  Bridgewater was productive and showed promise during his first two years in Minnesota, playing 29 games, starting 28, completing 551 passes in 849 attempts for a 64.9% completion percentage, for 6,150 yards, 28 touchdowns, 22 interceptions, and an 86.3 quarterback percentage.  He is best known for infamously suffering a devastating knee injury in the 2016 preseason that caused him to miss the entire season and all but one game of the 2017 season.  Bridgewater signed a one year, $6M contract with the Jets in March, 2018, but was traded to the Saints in the 2018 preseason.  He saw limited action as Drew Brees’ backup this past season, starting only the final game of the season.  Bridgewater has the potential to be a quality starter.   He is the most complete non-Foles quarterback on the market and should get offers well out of the Redskins’ $5M price range; however, if he is for some reason available, the Redskins would be wise to try to sign him and let him compete with Colt McCoy for the starting role this coming season.  It’s not impossible to think that he’d be open to a one year “prove it” deal if a multi-year deal isn’t in the cards for him.

3. Tyrod Taylor, 6’1” / 210, Browns, age 29. Taylor was a 6th round pick by Ravens in the 2011 draft. Taylor has played in 62 games in his career, starting 46, for a 61.6% completion percentage, with 9,529 yards, 53 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and an 89.6 quarterback rating.  He has also rushed for 1,836 yards on 326 carries, for an average of 5.6 yards per attempt.  Taylor backed up Joe Flacco for 4 seasons, seeing very little action, then signed a three year contract with Buffalo in 2015.  He did fairly well in Buffalo, spending two years under Rex Ryan, who is the brother of the Redskins’ new linebackers coach Rob Ryan.  In three years with the Bills, Taylor had 774 completions in 1,236 attempts for a 62.6% completion percentage, 51 touchdowns, just 16 interceptions, and a 92.5 quarterback rating.  Taylor also rushed for 1,575 yards on 283 attempts, for 5.6 yards per attempt.  His Buffalo teams were run-first offenses led by LeSean McCoy’s ground attack, but Taylor was nonetheless an effective, starting-worthy quarterback who might have stayed longer if Rex Ryan hadn’t been fired.  The Bills thought enough of him to award him with a 5 year, $90M contract extension in 2016, which he then restructured in 2017 to a 2 year deal expiring in 2018.  The Bills traded Taylor to Cleveland this past March for a third round draft pick.  Taylor spent 2018 in Cleveland, where he started 3 games under head coach Hue Jackson before being replaced by overall #1 pick Baker Mayfield.  Taylor was not effective in Cleveland, but Jackson was a terrible coach, and the Browns are the Factory of Sadness and eventually ruin every player cursed with having to wear that uniform, so he gets a mulligan from me for last season.  Taylor is another candidate who would be ideal competition with McCoy for the Redskins’ starting job.  Given the state of the quarterback market this year, it’s possible that a team will offer Taylor a multi-year deal, in which case he’ll probably be far out of the Redskins’ price range.  If the market dries up, though, it’s not impossible to think that Taylor, like Bridgewater, may be open to a one year “prove it” type contact.  I’m not sure he’s the ideal candidate for Jay Gruden’s version of the west coast offense, but he’s a proven vet who has generally done well when given an opportunity and would at a minimum provide the Redskins some stability next year.

Other legitimate prospects

4. Josh Johnson, 6’3” / 219, Redskins, age 32. Johnson’s career has been a long and winding road, but he originally entered the NFL as a 5th round pick in the 2008 draft by the Buccaneers out of the University of San Diego. In his NFL career, Johnson has played in 33 games, starting 8, with 148 completions in 268 attempts for 1,632 yards, 8 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, and a 61.7 quarterback rating.  In total, in addition to Tampa Bay and Washington, Johnson has at various times been on the roster of the 49ers, Browns, Bengals (2013 and again in 2015), Jets, Colts, Bills, Ravens, Giants, Texans, and Raiders, plus the Sacramento Mountain Lions of the now-defunct United Football League.  Johnson was also drafted into the Alliance of American Football and was expected to be the starter for the San Diego Fleet before signing with the Redskins.  Last year, he played in 4 games for Washington, starting 3, with 52 completions in 91 attempts for a 57.1% completion percentage, 590 yards, 3 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a 69.4 quarterback rating.  Johnson’s best game last year was his first, week 14 against the Eagles, and his statistics declined in essentially every category over the last quarter of the season.  However, by the end of the year, Johnson was playing with a team riddled with a stunning level of injuries that had quit on the season (again; I sense a pattern).  Is Johnson a starting-worthy quarterback?  No, but he’s also better than what we saw in that last game of the season.  Redskins team president and resident court jester Bruce Allen has alluded to Johnson being re-signed for 2019.  If that happens, it’s a safe bet that he becomes McCoy’s backup, with the team drafting a third quarterback.  Johnson will no doubt be available for a minimal contract.

5. Ryan Fitzpatrick, 6’2” / 223, Buccaneers, age 36. Fitzpatrick was a 7th round pick in the 2005 draft by the Rams out of Harvard. Fitzpatrick has played in a total of 141 games for 7 different teams, starting 126, with 2,575 completions in 4,285 attempts, 28,357 yards, 190 touchdowns, 148 interceptions, and an 81.1 quarterback rating.  He spent the last two seasons with Tampa Bay on two separate one year contracts, the last one being worth $3.3M.  Fitzpatrick is the epitome of the journeyman quarterback, not quite successful enough to stick around for very long (yes, I know he was with Buffalo for 4 years – don’t interrupt; I’m on a role).  Fitzpatrick had some high-quality moments last season in Tampa on a team with zero defense, despite splitting starts with walking, mumbling mess Jameis Winston.  Fitzpatrick could come to Washington and do a competent job at a decent price.  On the other hand, if Washington resorts to this level of desperation, it might be better to just stick with McCoy and Johnson, who already know the team.  The Redskins aren’t going to win with Fitzpatrick, for sure, but are they going to win with anyone next year?

Emergency prospects  

6. Taylor Heinicke, 6’1” / 210, Panthers, age 25 (26 in March). Heinicke was a 2015 undrafted free agent signed by the Vikings out of Old Dominion University. He’s appeared in 6 games in his NFL career, starting 1, with 36 completions on 58 attempts for a 62.1% completion percentage, 330 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, and a 61.7 quarterback rating.  He was waived with an injury settlement by the Vikings just prior to the 2017 season, after which he briefly spent time with the Patriots before signing a two year deal with the Texans in 2017.  The Texans waived Heinicke after the 2017 season, but he was claimed off waivers by the Panthers.  He spent 2018 backing up Cam Newton, where he played in 6 games, starting 1.  Heinicke doesn’t have a strong arm by NFL standards, but he has the ability to read the field and go through his progressions, and is fairly athletic.  He’d be a candidate to back up McCoy and could be signed to a minimum salary contract.

7. Geno Smith, 6’3” / 221, Chargers, age 28. Smith was drafted by the Jets out of West Virginia in the 2nd round of the 2013 draft. He has played in 40 games, starting 31, with 523 completions in 906 attempts, for a 57.7% completion percentage, 6,182 yards, 29 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, and a 72.7 quarterback rating. Smith was with the Giants in 2017 and spent 2018 on a 1 year, $1M contract with the Chargers.  He never lived up to his draft status, and isn’t a “good” NFL quarterback, but he is still young-ish and could at least be a competent veteran backup quarterback available for a minimum salary.

8. Sean Mannion, 6’6” / 223, Rams, age 26. Mannion was a third round pick in the 2015 draft by the Rams out of Oregon St. He has played in 10 games, starting 1, with 33 completions in 53 attempts, a 62.3% completion percentage, 258 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception, and a 66.4 quarterback rating.  He spent the last three years as Jared Goff’s backup.  If the Redskins’ coaching and scouting staffs for some reason believe in him, he could be had for a minimum value contract.

Dear God please don’t do it

9. Robert Griffin III, 6’2” / Ravens, age 29. All of you know RGIII’s history, so I’m not going to repeat it here. He was with the Ravens in 2018 on a one year, $1.1M contract.  It’s not that Griffin couldn’t adequately serve as a backup quarterback; it’s that the drama a return to Washington would bring wouldn’t be close to being worth it for just a second stringer.  Plus, he’s already proven that he’s not right for Jay Gruden’s offense.  ‘Nuff said.

10. Colin Kaepernick, 6’4” / 225, 49ers, age 31. Kaepernick was last on a roster in 2016. You’ve been living under a rock if you aren’t fully aware of his recent history, so I’m not going to get into it here, but I’d be doing a column on free agent quarterbacks a disservice by not at least mentioning him.  Kaepernick has NFL-worthy talent, but his story is far more about his other issues than his play.  I’m not going to turn this column into a dissertation on Colin Kaepernick.  My thoughts on Kaepernick and his protests, from September, 2017, are here, and I stand by that piece.  Sean Conte’s response to my column is here.  However you feel about him, the bottom line is that Kaepernick’s presence in DC would bring a huge, massive amount of controversy from every possible media outlet, and probably the White House as well, and that’s something the Redskins don’t need for a guy who’d either be a backup or at most a placeholding starter.

So after reading about this lot, what’s the conclusion?  First, the Redskins can’t afford to spend significant money on a quarterback unless they do something drastic contrary to smart salary cap management.  Second, assuming Smith is out for the season, the Redskins should try and sign either Bridgewater or Taylor on a one year “prove it” deal, and let him compete with Colt McCoy for the starting job.  In absence of that, Josh Johnson is probably the best option, believe it or not.  Any way you look at it, it’s pretty much mandatory for Washington to also draft a quarterback. It’s possible that the Redskins’ front office decides they need a new face to market to the ticket-buying public and decides to move heaven and earth to start someone with a bigger brand than Colt; we’ll see.

Do you have thoughts on the Redskins’ quarterback situation?  Let me know in the comment section below.