Free Agency 2019: Wide Receivers
March 11, 2019
by Steve Thomas
Welcome back to my continuing free agency preview series. I’ve previously covered tight ends (read it here), safeties (read it here), guards (read it here), and quarterbacks (read it here). All of those positions are major needs for the Redskins, but the wide receiver group is also a huge source of concern. The team’s best and most successful receiver, Jamison Crowder, is an unrestricted free agent this year. Josh Doctson, the 2016 first round pick, hasn’t produced up to his draft status and is flirting with “bust” territory. I did a detailed breakdown of Doctson with film clips back in January that you can find here. Behind Doctson, Washington has one experienced veteran, Paul Richardson, Jr., and a significant amount of young, unproven talent on the roster, including the likes of fan favorite Trey Quinn, the injured Robert Davis, and Cam Sims (also injured). Mediocre but well-liked vet Maurice Harris is a free agent. Put simply, the wide receiver group scares no one. Without trying to objectively quantify this mess, it might be the least accomplished receiver group in the entire league. Major help is needed, immediately, probably both in the draft and via free agency. Richardson is a fixture at the “Z” position for 2019, so the Redskins need a capable #1 “X” receiver, someone who can become what Josh Doctson was supposed to be, plus a playmaking slot receiver, and generally someone with speed and playmaking abilities. Washington would be foolish to rely on just Quinn, last year’s Mr. Irrelevant who barely played in 2018 due to injury, as their starting slot receiver without further addressing the position.
The 2019 free agent wide receiver class is large but lacking some of the star power that was available last year. The Redskins’ needs are a tall order to find in free agency, particularly with Washington’s salary cap woes, but there will be options. As was the case for all of the other groups I’ve reviewed (except quarterbacks), I’ve automatically excluded everyone over the age of 30. It’s a somewhat arbitrary line, but I don’t believe that the Redskins are the type of team that should be signing older free agents if at all possible, because they need to be building for the long-term, not the here and now. That’s not to say the Redskins won’t sign older free agents – they probably will, but they shouldn’t. The bigger names over 30 on the market are Golden Tate (31, Eagles; probably the “Top of the heap” irrespective of age), Demaryius Thomas (31, Texans; recovering from a late-season torn achilles and won’t be ready for the season), Michael Crabtree (31, Ravens, 43 receptions last year), old friend Pierre Garcon (33, 49ers), Danny Amendola (33, Dolphins), Chris Hogan (31, Patriots), Cole Beasley (30, Cowboys), and many others.
I’ve dispensed with my normal “Top of the heap / Second Tier / Other” structure, because there really isn’t a clear-cut #1 receiver on the market who’s under 30. Having said that, let’s take a look at this year’s under-30 options.
1. Tyrell Williams, 6’4” / 205, Chargers, X receiver, age 27. Williams was signed by the Chargers in 2015 as an undrafted free agent out of Division II Western Oregon. He has played 52 games in his four year career, all with the Chargers, starting 37, with 155 receptions in 258 targets, 60% completion percentage, 2,530 yards, 16.3 yards per reception, and 17 touchdowns. Williams is very athletic, running a 4.42 second 40 yard dash and jumping 39.5 inches in the vertical leap at the Oregon St. pro day. His 2018 season was less productive than either 2016 or 2017, with 41 receptions in 65 targets, 653 yards, 15.9 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. Williams led the Chargers in receptions in 2016, though, after the injury to starter Keenan Allen. The Chargers will likely let Williams walk in favor of 2017 first round pick Mike Williams, but Tyrell Williams has both talent and potential. As an “X” receiver with size, speed, and proven productive he is worth a high dollar contract in the $10M per year range. He would be an ideal fit for what the Redskins need.
2. Adam Humphries, 5’11” / 195, Buccaneers, slot, age 26. Humphries was originally signed by Tampa Bay as an undrafted free agent out of Clemson. In his career, he’s played in 60 games, starting 17, and has 219 receptions in 311 targets, a 70.4% completion percentage 2,329 yards, 10.6 yards per reception, and 9 touchdowns. As an added bonus, he is an experienced punt returner with 51 returns for 425 yards and an average of 8.3 yards per return. Humphries is a slot specialist whose production has increased every year, with 27 receptions for 260 yards in 2015, 55 receptions for 622 yards in 2016, 61 receptions for 631 yards in 2017, and 77 receptions for 816 yards in 2018. As a comparison, the top slot receiver on the market last year, Jarvis Landry, had 400 receptions in 4 years and received a 5 year, $75.5M contract with a $15.1M average annual value. Emmanuel Sanders, a 3 time pro bowler, signed a 3 year deal in 2016 with an $11M average annual value. Humphries isn’t as good as Landry and shouldn’t get a Landry-type of contract but 3 to 5 years at $10M average annual value isn’t out of the question.
3. John Brown, 5’11” / 168, Ravens, slot and Z, age 29 in April. Brown was a 3rd round pick by the Arizona Cardinals in the 2014 draft out of Pittsburgh St.. In his career, he’s played in 72 of total 80 games, starting 42, with 214 receptions in 428 targets, 50% completion percentage, 3,230 yards, 15.0 yards per reception, and 22 touchdowns. He had 42 receptions in 97 targets, 43.2% completion percentage, 715 yards, 17.0 yards per reception, and 5 touchdowns. He is versatile and known as a burner who ran 4.34 in the 40 at the 2014 Combine, but has suffered some injuries, most notably in 2017, including his hamstring, quad, back, and toe, which are problematic for a speed receiver. Brown was the Ravens’ #2 target last season behind Michael Crabtree. His low completion percentage is an issue and brings his hands into question, but he did suffer a bit from playing with rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson. Brown’s speed and ability to stretch the field would bring a capability to the Redskins that has been missing since the team let Desean Jackson walk.
4. Donte Moncrief, 6’2” / 220, Jaguars, X receiver, age 25. Moncrief was a 2015 third round pick by the Colts out of the University of Mississippi. He played out his rookie contract with the Colts then signed a one year, $9.6M deal with the Jaguars. In his career, Moncrief has played 69 games, starting 41, with 200 receptions in 346 targets, a 57.8% completion percentage, 2,543 yards, 12.7 yards per reception, and 21 touchdowns. Moncrief had decent but not great numbers in 2018, with 48 receptions in 89 targets (53.9% completion percentage), 668 yards, 13.9 yards per receptions, and 3 touchdowns, but he was also the victim of the worst quarterbacking situation in the NFL. Moncrief is athletic and speedy – he ran 4.40 in the 40 at 2015 Combine – but he’s been injury prone thusfar, missing time for shoulder and hamstring injuries. If the Redskins want to finally move on from former first round pick Josh Doctson, Moncrief could be an adequate and underrated replacement. His $9.6M deal with the Jags gives some insight into what his demands may be, because Moncrief is at a minimum worth that much again in 2019.
5. Jamison Crowder, 5’9” / 177, Redskins, slot, age 25. Crowder was the Redskins’ fourth round pick in the 2015 draft out of Duke. He’s been the Redskins’ most successful and most talented receiver for the bulk of his time in Washington. In his career, Crowder has played in 56 of 64 games, starting 28, with 221 receptions in 329 targets, a 67.1% completion percentage, 2,628 yards, 11.9 yards per receptions, and 14 touchdowns. The Redskins are rumored to want to keep Crowder, but his value on the open market is going to be in the same general range as Humphries, $8 – $10M per year, perhaps a bit less, which may be out of the Redskins’ price range given their cap difficulties. Ideally, the Redskins should try to keep a player like Crowder, who they drafted and developed.
6. Randall Cobb, 5’10” / 192, Packers, slot, age 28. Cobb was a second round pick by the Packers out of the University of Kentucky in the 2011 draft. He’s had the astoundingly good fortune to have had future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback for his entire NFL career. In his 8 years, Cobb has 470 receptions on 675 targets, a 69.6% completion percentage, 5,524 yards, and 41 touchdowns. He his best year was 2014, in which he had 127 receptions, 1,287 yards, 12 touchdowns, and was selected to the Pro Bowl. He was timed at 4.46 in the 40 yard dash at the 2011 Combine. His performance has declined since that year, and he only had 38 receptions for 383 yards in 2018, but he can still probably be a productive receiver at a reasonable price. Many question how much Cobb has left in the tank.
7. Cordarrelle Patterson, 6’2” / 220, Patriots, multi-use, age 28 on March 17. Patterson was a 2013 first round pick of the Minnesota Vikings out of Tennessee. He ran the 40 yard dash in 4.42 seconds at the NFL Combine. In six NFL seasons, Patterson has played 95 games, starting 29, with 184 receptions on 286 targets, 64.3% completion percentage, 1,872 yards, 11.8 yards per reception, and 10 touchdowns. He also has significant experience as a running back, with 86 career carries for 682 yards and 7.9 yards per attempt and 7 touchdowns. Patterson played out his rookie deal with Minnesota, then signed a 2 year, $8.5M contract with the Raiders. Oakland traded him to the Patriots prior to the 2018 season. He is a two-time Pro Bowler and All-Pro. He’s built like a classic “X” receiver, but his trademark is his versatility, and he may be a better runner than receiver. Patterson is probably worth more to New England than other teams, and while his value is a bit hard to peg, should the Redskins want to sign him, he’d probably be worth a deal at least in the $6M range.
8. Devin Funchess, 6’4” / 225, Panthers, X receiver, age 24. Funchess was the 2nd round pick of the Carolina Panthers out of Michigan in the 2015 draft. He has played in 61 games in his four year career, starting 40, with 161 receptions in 311 targets, 51.8% completion percentage, 2,233 yards, 13.9 yards per reception, and 21 touchdowns. Funchess’ achilles heel is his lack of long speed – he ran just 4.70 at the 2015 Combine – but otherwise, he’s a classic “X” receiver who’s been both blessed and cursed to play with former NFL MVP Cam Newton. He’s been moderately productive throughout his career, but seemed to have fallen out of favor with the Panthers by the end of last season. He’d probably be an upgrade over Doctson, but little else. His value is probably in the $6 – $8M range as measured by average annual value.
9. Ryan Grant, 6’0” / 204, Colts, multi-use, age 28. Grant was the Redskins’ 5th round draft pick in 2014 out of Tulane. Jay Gruden loved Grant for his quality route running ability and hands despite his lack of speed and playmaking ability. The Redskins let him walk last offseason after the Ravens offered him a 4 year, $29M contract that included $14.5M guaranteed, but the deal was voided under somewhat shady circumstances when the Ravens claimed that Grant failed his physical for a previously unknown injury, with Michael Crabtree suddenly becoming available virtually the next day. The Colts then signed Grant to a one year, $5M deal. In his career, Grant has played 78 games, starting 25, with 119 receptions in 193 targets, a 61.7% completion percentage, 1,319 yards, 11.1 yards per receptions, and 7 touchdowns. Grant had a decently productive year for the Colts, playing 14 games, starting 10, with 35 receptions in 52 targets, 334 yards, 9.5 yards per receptions, and 1 touchdown. He could be signed for a minimal contract. The Redskins should not try to recreate the magic, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if Gruden wants to bring him home.
Please Dear God don’t do it
Martavis Bryant, 6’4” / 210, Raiders, X receiver, age 27. Bryant, a 2014 fourth round pick out of Clemson by the Steelers, is supremely talented and effective as a receiver, but is also a Grade-A knucklehead and pothead who is currently sitting out his second indefinite suspension for violation of the league’s dugs of abuse policy. He was originally suspended prior to the 2016 season, and was reinstated by Commissioner Roger Goodell a year later. He played the 2017 season in Pittsburgh before being traded to Oakland in April, 2018, for a third round draft pick. The Raiders released him on September 1, 2018, in the face of yet another failed drug test, but re-signed him 10 days later. Bryant was suspended on December 14, 2018, and remains suspended. It isn’t likely that he is eligible to place in 2019, and he might not be allowed back in at all, but if it is does happen, the Redskins would be wise to stay far away.
Josh Gordon, 6’3” / 225, Patriots, X receiver, age 28 in April. Gordon was a second round pick by the Cleveland Browns in the 2012 supplemental draft. The reason that he was in the 2012 supplemental draft in the first place was that he got booted out of the Baylor program for failing a drug test, then filed his declaration for the 2011 supplemental draft too late. Gordon is a drug addict, but is as talented as he is troubled. A healthy, sober Josh Gordon is a classic #1 receiver with the ability to be a game changer. Unfortunately, he missed the entire 2015 and 2016 seasons due to suspensions for violations of the NFL’s drugs of abuse policy. He returned to the Browns late in the 2017 season but was traded to New England this past September. Gordon stepped away from football in late December after facing yet another indefinite suspension. Gordon’s story is tragic and his waste of talent is a real shame, but the Redskins are not the right kind of team for someone with his issues and would be wise to not get involved should he somehow be reinstated again. I wish him the best of luck in getting his life together.
You should be aware that there are a significant number of wide receivers available this year, including many restricted and exclusive rights free agents, and this list is just the tip of the iceberg. Williams and Humphries, either together or just one of them, would be ideal additions to the team, but each come with a price tag that is likely prohibitive. The most likely course of action is that the Redskins both sign a free agent and also draft a receiver.
Do you have thoughts on the receiver free agent class? Let me know in the comment section below.