Expectations for 2016
by Steve Thomas
As we head into the quietest period of the NFL year, late June through the middle of July, it is time to start to honestly assess what we can expect from the 2016 Washington Redskins. I wrote about the eternal hope of Redskins fans as around this same last year in my Hope Springs Eternal column. It is certainly more than fair to say that the 2015 Redskins far exceeded any reasonable expected results: 9 – 7 and a playoff berth was too much to root for for almost every fan and critic alike. Yes, yes, Tony Romo was hurt, the Giants had a down year, and Chip Kelly ruined the Eagles. Spare me, okay? The Redskins won fair and square – they were the better NFC East team during the 2015 campaign. Now, make no mistake, circumstances certainly broke the Redskins way, but guess what? That’s football. It is true to say that the 2015 Redskins featured both a terrible rushing attack and a terrible run defense, but featured a strong passing game that was good enough overall to get the job done. At the end of the day, they won more games than the other guys, which is the only thing that matters.
Last season was not without controversy, primarily due to the split factions of Redskins fandome, those who loved Robert Griffin and were therefore required to hate Kirk Cousins, and those who loved Kirk Cousins and were therefore required to hate Robert Griffin. As an aside, if any of our dear readers are still holding those grudges one way or the other, it is time to give up that particular bit of ugly. Let Robert Griffin go in peace to Cleveland (looking at you, Jason Reid), wishing him all the success in the world along the way except for the Cleveland – Washington game, and get with the program and root for our new quarterback, Kirk Cousins, to succeed. It’s time to end the madness.
But back to 2016. Given what we know about this team, its performance last season, the successes and failures of last season, the new roster composition, and the coaching, what should fans consider to be a success? For sure, we have not returned to the glory years of the 1980s and early 1990s, during which time our beloved Redskins were competitive for the Super Bowl and a deep playoff run almost every year, but the 2015 season raised expectations in a way that has not been see in this city for quite a while. We all know the history, and to be sure, the years since the 1991-92 team won the Super Bowl have not been kind. We have only had fleeting moments of good things along the way, most recently in what ultimately proved to be a shooting star in the form of the 2012 season. But last season just felt different, somehow, didn’t it? It seemed as though the Redskins somehow made the type of progress that bodes well for long-term success in the form of young, drafted players meeting or succeeding expectations. So what can we expect the 2016 team to do?
Offense
The major strength of this offense is the passing game. Kirk Cousin made remarkable progress as a quarterback, and the pass protection along the offensive line took a major step forward with the inclusion of Brandon Scherff and the incredible progress of Morgan Moses. There is no reason to think that this area should not get better, with Cousins having more time under center, the inclusion of rookie wide receiver Josh Doctson, and another year of development in the offensive line’s ability to pass protect. Unfortunately, the run game was as much of a weakness as the passing game was a strength. The 2015 Redskins featured one of the most anemic and unhelpful rushing attacks in the entire league, and it does not appear that major steps were taken this offseason to begin a sharp turnaround. The offensive line should make progress in run blocking simply due to the passing of time and more experience, and newly-minted lead running back Matt Jones should be better than last year as a result of moving into his second campaign and first as the sole workhorse back. But nothing done this offseason suggests that enough was added and/or changed to turn the running game from a weakness into a strength. At best, if (1) Matt Jones becomes more consistent and solves his fumbling problem, (2) another back such as 7th round pick Keith Marshall, 2015 holdover Mack Brown, or someone else becomes a solid contributor, and (3) the offensive line does a better job in opening holes, then the run game just might not be a glaring weakness again in 2016. At worst, Jones is who we feared – a guy with all of the desired physical attributes but just does not show that he can be a feature back at the NFL level and who has a fumbling problem – and the fledgling offensive line continues to fail to create consistently open running lanes.
What can we reasonably hope for, then? A passing attack that becomes more explosive and a running attack that can at least be something of a strength as opposed to a glaring weakness. In the form of numbers, it is probably not reasonable to expect Kirk Cousins to repeat his astronomical numbers from 2015 (101.6 QB rating/4166 yards/69.8 completion percentage/29 TDs/11 interceptions), simply because those season numbers were primarily the result of one of the hottest streaks a quarterback could get on in the latter half of the season. Please do not expect Kirk to continue to post ratings of 110 or higher for each season simply because he did it over 6-8 games last year – those are hall of fame-worthy numbers over a career and that level of expectations are not fair to Kirk. No, some sort of statistical regression by Cousins from the latter half of the 2015 campaign is inevitable, but that does not mean that he cannot get better and have a successful season. What the reasonable fan should hope for from Kirk Cousins is a more even performance for the entire 16 game campaign. Remember, 2015 was the highest of highs and the lowest of lows from Cousins: he was at times both incredible and terrible. Fans might not see any single receiver post amazing numbers, simply because the Redskins receiving corps is stacked with pro bowl or near pro bowl-level talent in Pierre Garcon, Desean Jackson, Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, and the aforementioned Docston, plus newly acquired tight end Vernon Davis and the returning Niles Paul, so the ball will be spread around. From the running game, reasonable progress should mean being able to average over 4.0 yards per carry on the season, putting the ball into the end zone inside the 10 yardline on a regular basis, and not continually making game-killing fumbles. The 2015 Redskins failed in all of those respects.
Defense
The 2015 Redskins allowed 379 points to be scored against them, as compared to 438 points allowed by the 2014 defense, which is significant progress. However, when looking at the data in more depth, the 2015 defense nonetheless ended up as a statistically mediocre unit overall, born from a pass defense that held opposing quarterbacks to a quarterback rating of 96.1 (ranked 22nd in the NFL), sacked opposing quarterbacks 38 times (15th), recovered an astounding 16 fumbles (1st), and had 11 interceptions (21st), but allowed opponents to rush for a terrible 4.8 yards per carry for the season, which was tied for 31st in the NFL (only the historically bad Saints defense was worse at 4.9). Of course, fans may recall that the 2014 Redskins featured the polar opposite of the 2015 team: a decent run defense and an inept pass defense. What happened between the 2014 and 2015 campaigns was that the change in defensive coordinators from Jim Haslett to Joe Barry resulted in a shift of relative defensive strength in run defense (4.1 yards per carry (13th) in 2014) to massive liability, and a shift of massive liability in pass defense (2014 opposing quarterbacks had an average QB rating of a league-worst and historically bad 108.3) to a relative strength, comparatively speaking. Make no mistake, though: the 2015 Redskins defense was not an asset to this team. The defensive goals for the 2016 Redskins should be, in order of importance: (1) stop humiliating themselves in their pathetic attempts to stop the run, (2) put more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and (3) get more interceptions.
At first glance, the 2016 Redskins defensive line does not look all that different from the 2015 line that utterly failed to stop, well, any running back at all. However, as we discussed in our defensive line Position Group Breakdown (listen here), general manager Scot McGloughan has made small, somewhat subtle additions with the intentions of improving this unit, starting with 5th round draft pick Matt Ioannidis, who we expect to be a solid contributor in his first year, defensive end Kendall Reyes, the return of Stephen Paea, and a few unheralded but promising rookie undrafted free agents. Certainly, the team did not make a big, splashy move that will clearly improve the run defense, but I expect this unit to make progress – it almost literally cannot get worse than the 2015 results in this regard. Without a doubt, a major part of the Redskins’ hopes for the 2016 season rest on significant improvement in this area.
The Redskins’ 2016 pass rush should be fearsome with the return of elite pass-rushing specialist Junior Galette and the continuing development of promising 2015 rookie Preston Smith. Fans can reasonably expect the 38 sacks in 2015 to rise by a fairly significant number as a result. These two players should signal the end of the Redskins’ reliance on Ryan Kerrigan as the sole playmaker along the defensive front. As we discussed in our Position Group Breakdown, as good and valuable as Ryan Kerrigan is to the Redskins, his career production shows that he has not been, and likely will not ever be, an elite pass rusher.
It goes without saying that the addition of Josh Norman is a major upgrade for the defensive backfield (listen to our Position Group Breakdown on this unit here). Norman is a true All-Pro level cornerback just entering his prime and is a perfect fit for Joe Barry’s preferred cover 3 zone base scheme. On the other side of the field, Bashaud Breeland continued to improve in 2015 from his 2014 rookie season. The Redskins also feature a surprisingly promising second year player in Quinton Dunbar, dynamic rookie Kendall Fuller, and a veteran who can contribute in Greg Toler. The elite but aging DeAngelo Hall made a smooth transition to safety, and Scot McGloughan hand-picked his other starting safety in the form of David Bruton, Jr. Rookie Su’a Cravens, who should split time at strong safety and inside linebacker, is a dynamic talent who may become an important player early in his career. Fans can expect this unit to be one of the better defensive backfields in the NFL.
So, conclusions: the run defense simply must make major improvements from the pathetic 4.8 yards per carry in order for this defense to become a quality unit, but I cannot even hazard a guess at the final outcome. The number of sacks should rise, and pass coverage should improve. Fans can reasonably expect to see a better overall defense than they did in 2015.
Conclusions
It goes without saying, of course, that the above analysis is contingent on the injury grim reaper’s willingness to skip Redskins Park. Significant injuries anywhere on the defense have the ability to cause major problems (not a surprise; this is of course true for all teams). The other factor in defensive performance is the schedule: the consequence of the 2015 NFC East title is that the 2016 Redskins are blessed with a first place schedule, and it’s a tough one, folks. We’ll break down the schedule in a separate column, but suffice to say that 2016 has the potential to be a tough one unless the Redskins make quality improvements.
What are your thoughts on team expectations? Let us know in the comment section below.