Game Preview, Week 5: Patriots at Redskins
October 4, 2019
by Steve Thomas
I’m not going to lie to you and pretend that the Redskins have much of a shot to win this game just because this is our game preview. I’m not Larry Michael. They don’t. Never say never, of course; as the old saying goes, “on any given Sunday . . . . ”, which is about what it will take for the Redskins to win this game. Who knows, folks, maybe the team will get it all together and play well; stranger things have happened. There is a roadmap to beating the Patriots, but it will take a whole lot to go right for Washington, including a perfect gameplan, and many things to go wrong for New England. You never know. Realistically, I’m just rooting for a competitive game that doesn’t end in a blowout – surely that’s not too much to ask, is it? IS IT? Probably so. Regardless, read on for our game preview.
Game time & location: Sunday, October 6, 2019, 1:00 p.m. ET, Jack Kent Cooke Stadium, Raljon, MD; Gates open 11:00 a.m. ET; Red Zone parking lots open 8:00 a.m.; all other parking lots 9:00 a.m.
Television: CBS
Television announcers: Greg Gumbel, Trent Green
TV broadcast map: Click here
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Patriots radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 225 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 81 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Patriots roster: Click here
Patriots depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Patriots: 6 – 4 (last 5: 2 – 3) (streak: 0 – 3)
Last meeting: L, November 8, 2015, 10 – 27
Early odds: Patriots, -16
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Forget the problems and the chaos and play a good game
If the Redskins are going to have any chance to win this game, they are going to have to play perfect football, and that means putting all of the hemming, hawing, and nonsense coming from the fans and the media out of their minds and just play good football. Not good football – great football. On the other hand, if the Redskins come out looking discombobulated, scared and sloppy, it’s going to definitely be a long day. Pretty simple. This goes beyond scheme and gameplan. Washington needs to become a legitimate, high quality NFL team in a hurry in order to have a shot at winning this game.
Figure out how to run the ball
Not that this is an easy task, because New England happens to have the #1 defense in the NFL, but as I’ve been saying all season, the 2019 Redskins don’t win if they can’t run the ball. This axiom definitely applies to the Patriots game, regardless of how good they are. If the Redskins can’t effectively run the ball, extending drives to simultaneously score touchdowns while keeping the Patriots’ offense off the field, they’ll have no chance to win. You don’t come out on top in a shootout with New England, particularly when you’re the Washington Redskins. They need to come up with some way, either by hook or by crook, to run the ball in an efficient and effective manner
Make Tom Terrific uncomfortable
Teams that beat the Patriots usually do because they’ve figured out how to throw Tom Brady off of his game. Blitz him relentlessly; hit him as much as possible, without giving him enough time and space to avoid the rush and pick the secondary apart. A big factor in the few games the Patriots lose is usually Brady having an uncharacteristically bad day, and that usually starts with him getting frustrated because he’s getting hit and doesn’t have enough time to operate. Do this poorly, though, and you leave all sorts of throwing windows that a Hall of Famer like Mr. Bundchen can use to pick defenses apart all day long. This is certainly a tall order, but so is everything else against this team. I’m not saying that it’s likely the Redskins can do this, just that they need to in order to win.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Jamie Collins vs Morgan Moses and Donald Penn
Collins has been the Patriots’ do everything defender – he’s leading the team in tackles and sacks, and also has 3 interceptions. Collins, who spent the last 3 seasons with Cleveland, has been a somewhat unlikely star for New England so far. The Patriots have a tendency to line him up in various spots throughout the game, but he’s more often on the edge, so that leaves the job of containing Collins mostly to Morgan Moses and Donald Penn. The Redskins can’t let Collins dominate this game defensively. Watch out for home much impact Collins is having throughout the day.
Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon vs Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar
With the retirement of All-World tight end Rob Gronkowski, Edelman has become even more of a target for Brady. A significant number of clutch, game-changing catches by this player is something the Redskins don’t need. As far as Josh Gordon goes, he’s a mismatch who presents a serious problem for a weak Washington secondary. Josh Norman and Quinton Dunbar need to bring their A games on Sunday and keep these two from taking over the game. Pay close attention to how many times Norman and Dunbar are lined up in man coverage one on one against either Edelman or Gordon. It shouldn’t be very much; if it is, Washington could be in for a long day.
Terry McLaurin vs Stephon Gilmore
The Redskins need their best receiver back if they’re going to have any chance of putting up enough offense to keep up with the Pats. At the time of publication of this preview, we don’t know whether McLaurin is going to dress or not. Let’s hope so. Stephon Gilmore is the Patriots’ best defensive back and will therefore probably be lined up on McLaurin quite a bit throughout the contest. McLaurin needs to figure out a way to win enough of these battles to be a difference maker for the Redskins. In my view, this is a big matchup.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful NL – not listed
| Redskins | Patriots |
| TE V. Davis, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | RB R. Burkhead, foot; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB J. Harvey-Clemons, hamstring; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | S. P. Chung, heel; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| QB C. Keenum, foot; Wed: DNP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | S N. Ebner, groin; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| TE J. Reed, concussion; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR J. Edelman, chest; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| G B. Scherff, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | WR J. Gordon, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: FP |
| WR T. McLaurin, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | LB D. Hightower, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| CB J. Norman, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP; game: Q | WR G. Olszewski, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: no longer listed; Fri: no longer listed |
| C C. Roullier, knee; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q | DE M. Bennett, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| DT M. Ioannidis, foot; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| DT D. Payne, knee; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
We all know that the Redskins offense has gotten worse and worse as the weeks have gone on. Washington is now 29th in points, 28th in total yards, 30th in rushing yards, 31st in average time of possession, and 29th in third down conversions, among other things. The highest single ranking for any skill possession player is Case Keenum’s completion percentage, which is 10th-highest in the league. Other than that, this is a mediocre to bad offense by almost any measure that is going to have its hands full to get any sort of traction at all against a defense as talented as what the Patriots put on the field.
From a statistical perspective, Washington’s defense has been bad as the offense, and in some cases worse. They’ve given up the second-highest number of points in the league and have been an utter embarrassment on third down, allowing opponents to convert an astounding 64.29% of first downs on third down, which is last in the league by far. You have to actively make an effort to be that terrible on third downs. The Redskins are 28th in yards surrendered and 31st in sacks. Contrary to what we all believed heading into this season, this is a flat-out bad defense. And now they’re facing the Super Bowl champs. Yeah.
Record: 0 – 4 (4th) (Home: 0 – 2; AFC: 0 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 600 – 594 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 29 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 28 (yards per game) / 27 (yards per play) / 16 (passing yards) / 21 (passing yards per att.) / 30 (rushing yards) / 31 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 66 |
| Yards per game | 296.2 |
| Passing
|
152 att (7th); 101 comp; 66.4% comp per. (13th); 7.1 Y/A; 986 net yds; 7 TD; 7 Int |
| Passing leader | Keenum (135 att, 970 yds (16th), 68.1% comp perc (10th), 7 TDs / 4 Int, 93.8 QB rating (20th) |
| Receiving leader | Richardson (149 yds, 24 tgts (59th), 18 rec (50th), 2 TD, 8.3 YPC); McLaurin (257 yds (34th), 24 tgts (59th), 16 rec, 3 TDs; 16.1 YPC) |
| Rushing | 68 att (31st); 199 yds; 2.9 Y/A; 49.8 Y/G (31st); 1 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (33 att (37th), 90 yds (51st), 1 TD, 2.7 Y/A (44), long 10) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 9 / 16 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 26:06 / 31 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 28.57% / 29 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 54.55% / 17 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 31 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 28 (yards per game surrendered) / 24 (yards per play) / 19 (passing yards) / 22 (passing yards per att.) / 29 (rushing yards) / 22 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 118 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 399.2 |
| Opponent’s passing | 131 att (11th); 102 comp; 77.9% comp perc. (32nd); 7.9 Y/A; 1007 net yds; 10 TDs; QB Rating 112.4 (28th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 126 att (30th); 590 yds; 4.7 Y/A; 3 TD; 147.5 Y/G (29th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 5 /31 / Ioannidis, Kerrigan, Norman, Sweat (1.0) |
| Tackles leader | Collins (36) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 4 / 14 / Dunbar (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 64.29% / 32 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 51.92% / 8 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 22.8 Y/R (9th), 9 returns, long 45 yards (5th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 8.2 Y/R (11th), 17 returns, long 11 yards (26th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 21.0 Y/R (15th), 3 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 5.5 Y/R (13th), 11 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 52.3 Y/P (1st) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 9 / 6 / -3 / 27
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 39 / 30
Patriots:
The Patriots are 4th in points scored, but their offensive numbers aren’t quite what you might expect, overall, in some areas, at least by New England standards – just 14th in yards, 24th in rushing yards, 28th in rushing yards per attempt, 23rd in red zone efficiency. Those rankings aren’t quite up to New England’s normal standards; however, keep in mind that Tom Brady, in particular, had a rare bad game, numbers-wise, in week 4 that brought some of the team rankings down, and his in particular. The Redskins would be fools to think that the Patriots will be anything but their normal incredible selves on Sunday.
As to the Patriots’ defense, understand one thing: this is the NFL’s overall best defense. They are #1 in the league in points, and the only team that has given up fewer yards in San Francisco, which has only played 3 games. New England is #3 in passing yards, #5 in rushing yards, and #1 in opposing quarterback back rating, sacks, interceptions, opponent’s third down conversions, and opponent’s red zone efficiency. This is an extremely formidable defense that presents the Redskins’ biggest challenge of the year.
Record: 4 – 0 (1st) (Away: 2 – 0; NFC: 0 – 0)
All-time franchise record: 504 – 391 – 9
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
4 (points) / 14 (total yards) / 15 (yards per game) / 15 (yards per play) / 9 (passing yards) / 15 (passing yards per att.) 24 (rushing yards) / 28 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 112 |
| Yards per game | 362.2 |
| Passing | 149 att (10th); 93 comp; 62.4% comp per. (25th); 7.4 Y/A; 1084 net yds; 7 TDs; 2 Int |
| Passing leader | Brady (145 att, 1061 yds (15th), 62.1% comp per., 7 TDs / 1 Int, 97.5 QB rating (13th)) |
| Reception leader | Edelman (226 yds (44th), 32 targets (30th), 21 rec (31st), 1 TD, 10.8 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 114 att (10th); 365 yds; 3.2 Y/A; 91.3 Y/G (24th); 5 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Michel (62 att, 171 yds (31st), 2 TDs, 2.8 Y/A (43rd), long 15 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 4 / 5 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 32:54 / 2 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 41.38% / 13 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 50.00% / 23 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 1 (points) / 2 (total yards) / 1 (yards per game surrendered) / 1 (yards per play) / 3 (passing yards) / 3 (passing yards per att.) / 3 (rushing yards) / 5 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 27 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 334.8 |
| Opponent’s passing | 152 att (25th); 79 comp; 52.0% comp per. (1st); 5.5 Y/A; 727 net yds; 0 TD; QB Rating 41.0 (1st) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 70 att (2nd); 245 yds; 3.5 Y/A; 1 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 18 / 1 / Collins (3.5) |
| Tackles leader | Collins (23) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 10 / 1 / McCourty (4) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 13.46% / 1 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 25.0% / 1 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 19.5 Y/R (24th), 4 returns, long 26 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 6.8 Y/R (17th), 13 returns, long 20 yards (10th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 30.6 Y/R (28th), 5 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 6.4 Y/R (15th), 8 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 45.9 Y/P (17th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 4 / 10 / +6 / 1
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 28 / 16
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com