Game Preview, Week 8: Redskins at Vikings
October 24, 2019
by Steve Thomas
Well, folks, the Redskins seem to hit a new low every week, and getting embarrassed by the 49ers at home in a driving rainstorm certainly qualifies. Things didn’t go well for our beloved Redskins in a game that many predicted at the beginning of the season should be a win. No worries, though – a get well game is in store. Against the high-flying Minnesota Vikings. Led by former Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins. On the road. On national TV on Thursday Night Football. So, yeah. I think we all know how this one is probably going to go. But we still have an obligation to preview this game, give you some insight into what makes the Vikings tick, and try and foresee a possible path to victory, so here it goes. Who knows, maybe the Redskins will defy all logic and the overwhelming tide of history. Stranger things have happened.
Game time & location: Thursday, October 24, 2019, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN; Gates open 6:20 p.m. ET; parking lots open 2:20 p.m.
Television: Fox/NLFN/Amazon
Television announcers: Fox: Troy Aikman, Joe Buck, Erin Andrews, Kristina Pink Amazon Prime: Andrea Kramer, Hannah Storm
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Vikings radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 225 (Redskins broad.) Sirius: 81 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Vikings roster: Click here
Vikings depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Vikings: 10 – 11 (last 10: 4 – 6) (streak: 0 – 1)
Last meeting: L, November 12, 2017, 30 – 38
Early odds: Vikings, -16.5
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Overcome their natural tendency to be absolutely horrible in prime time
The Redskins are infamously something like 2 – 4,364 in prime time games in the Dan Snyder era. They’ve repeatedly, time and time again, embarrassed themselves in spectacular fashion in front of the entire football world. There’s no real reason to think that won’t happen again when they face the high-scoring Vikings. If the Redskins are going to have a chance to win this game, they need to somehow beat back their natural tendencies to be awful under the lights and play a normal competent football game. That ought to not be too much to ask, but throw in a road game against their former quarterback, and things certainly don’t look favorable for our side. Regardless of anything else, this is the single biggest key to the game, by far.
The secondary needs to play tight, smart coverage
The Vikings offense is obviously something of a juggernaut when it’s working correctly (Hello, Bad Kirk. I think we’ve met). Minnesota has a whole stable-full of talented and dangerous wide receivers, including the injured Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, and Laquon Treadwell. The secondary can’t afford to give away a series of big plays, obviously, but it also needs to do what it can to stop the underneath receptions against soft zone coverage designed to protect against big plays. In other words, they need to play their best game of the year, and even then it still might not be enough. Because Dalvin Cook exists.
The offense must be better than pathetic
Washington’s offense has been essentially ineffective and unable to score points for most of the season. The team has very little chance of beating a team like the Vikings without being able to at least replicate their results from the Eagles game in week one. Regardless of whether they have 40 run plays or 40 pass plays, or something in between, the Redskins absolutely must have a significant offensive output this week, or they just aren’t going to win this game, most likely. Whether they can actually do that is another story, of course, but that’s what needs to happen.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
Dalvin Cook vs. Jonathan Bostic
The bad thing about limiting the Vikings pass game is that Dalvin Cook exists. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry and is who makes the Vikings go. I list this key matchup as being on Bostic, primarily because he’s the middle linebacker and the signal caller, and he probably is the most important cog in the Stop Dalvin Cook wheel, but the truth is that this is going to be a team effort – the front 7 did a pretty decent job against the 49ers run game last week, and that needs to happen again on Thursday. Unfortunately, Cook is light years ahead of all of the 49ers backs, so this is a very tall order.
Stefon Diggs v Josh Norman / Simeon Thomas
Adam Thielen and Norman were both out last week, and Thielen has been declared out this week as well. If Norman can’t go, Simeon Thomas will most likely replace him. The setup here, then, is that Josh Norman needs to limit the output of Stefon Diggs, who is the Vikings leading receiver, with Thielen out; if not Norman then Simeon Thomas. Either way, as I mentioned in the Keys to the Game above, Minnesota Vikings wide receivers running free in the Redskins secondary is going to spell certain doom. Norman is the leader of the secondary and he needs to come through, if he plays. He hasn’t had a good season so far, but he’s talented and has won many battles with many receivers over the years; he needs to get back to that space this week.
Terry Mclaurin vs Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes
One key to getting points on the board in bunches is to get Scary Terry free in the defensive secondary. He needs to beat Waynes and Rhodes, repeatedly and often. The best way to sustain a running game throughout the entirety of a 60 minute football game is to have a receiver so dangerous that a defense can’t afford to not have a second safety out in the backfield instead of in the box. Mclaurin is legitimately the Redskins’ most dangerous weapon, and he needs to come through. Rhodes, in particular, is a two-time Pro Bowler, so he’s probably the key matchup for Mclaurin.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Wednesday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful NL – not listed
| Redskins | Vikings |
| S D. Everett, ankle; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: O | DE E. Griffen, quadricep; Mon: DNP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP; game: Q |
| LB J. Harvey-Clemons, hamstring; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: O | DT L. Joseph, knee; Mon: DNP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| G W. Martin, chest; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: O | WR A. Thielen, hamstring; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: O |
| S M. Nicholson, ankle; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: Q | DT H. Mata’afa, cervical spine; Mon: LP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| CB J. Norman, thigh, hand; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: Q | CB X. Rhodes, hip; Mon: LP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| RB A. Peterson, ankle; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: LP; game: Q | LB B. Gedeon, concussion; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| WR S. Sims, toe; Mon: DNP; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; game: Q | LB E. Kendricks; hip; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| RB C. Thompson, toe; Mon: DNP; Tues: DNP; Wed: DNP; game: O | G J. Kline, foot; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| TE V. Davis, concussion; Mon: LP; Tues: LP; Wed: LP; game: O | T R. Reiff, ankle; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| LB R. Kerrigan, elbow; Mon: LP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP | TE K. Rudolph, thumb; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| T D. Penn, NIR; Mon: LP; Tues: NL; Wed: NL | DT S. Stephen, knee; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP |
| QB C. Keenum; right shoulder, foot; Mon: FP; Tues: FP; Wed: FP | DT J. Holmes, illness; Mon: NL; Tues: NL; Wed: DNP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
It’s not really getting any better for the Washington offense with the exception of rushing yards (23rd) and rushing yards per attempt (18th). The Redskins remain cellar dwellers in most of the major categories, including points scored (30th), total yards (28th), and passing yards (28th). Most disturbingly for a running team, the Redskins are now last in the NFL in time of possession. That’s simply incredible for a team that has been running far more than passing for the past two weeks. They are also horrendous on third down (31st), in the red zone (27th), and in passing yards per attempt (27th). The only saving grace is that the Redskins are now up to an even 4.0 yards per rushing attempt, which isn’t necessarily “good”, but it is noticeably better than earlier this season. Keenum’s 94.5 quarterback rating and his other numbers, which are all decent, are deceiving in that they don’t meet the eyeball test.
Washington’s defensive numbers aren’t quite as terrible as their offensive rankings, but that isn’t saying much. The Redskins are still giving up points and yards at prodigious rates (25th and 26th, respectively) and they are awful on third down (30th). However, opposing quarterback ratings are down from 110 earlier this season to just 97.6, which is still bad but not amazingly so. Granted, this is due to two weeks of Josh Rosen and the awful Dolphins and Jimmy Garoppolo in a monsoon, but still . . . it’s progress. They are also rising up to – dare we say it – the bottom end of mediocrity in rushing yards per attempt, 4.4 (ranked 21st), and are solidly in the middle in red zone defense.
Record: 1 – 5 (4th) (Away: 1 – 2; NFC: 0 – 5)
All-time franchise record: 601 – 596 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 30 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 29 (yards per game) / 29 (yards per play) / 28 (passing yards) / 27 (passing yards per att.) / 23 (rushing yards) / 18 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 90 |
| Yards per game | 267.6 |
| Passing
|
216 att (21st); 141 comp; 65.3% comp per. (14th); 6.7 Y/A; 1280 net yds; 9 TD; 8 Int |
| Passing leader | Keenum (172 att, 1213 yds (25th), 66.3% comp perc (10th), 9 TDs / 4 Int, 94.5 QB rating (15th) |
| Receiving leader | Mclaurin (419 yds (29th), 40 tgts (55th), 24 rec (66th), 5 TD, 17.5 YPC) |
| Rushing | 147 att (25th); 593 yds; 4.0 Y/A; 84.7 Y/G (24th); 2 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (83 att (22nd), 307 yds (26th), 1 TD, 3.7 Y/A (36th), long 25) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 18 / 22 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 26:38 / 32 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 24.66% / 31 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 46.15% / 27 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 25 (points) / 26 (total yards) / 21 (yards per game surrendered) / 16 (yards per play) / 17 (passing yards) / 18 (passing yards per att.) / 29 (rushing yards) / 21 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 176 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 370.4 |
| Opponent’s passing | 238 att (15th); 169 comp; 71.0% comp perc. (31st); 7.4 Y/A; 1652 net yds; 14 TDs; QB Rating 97.6 (22nd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 213 att (29th); 941 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 5 TD; 134.4 Y/G (27th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 16 /20 / Allen (3) |
| Tackles leader | Collins (59) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 8 / 6 / Dunbar (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 49.49% / 30 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 53.85% / 14 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 22.2 Y/R (14th), 13 returns, long 45 yards (11th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 7.1 Y/R (16th), 9 returns, long 15 yards (24th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 19.5 Y/R (5th), 4 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.1 Y/R (24th), 20 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 50.0 Y/P (1st) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 12 / 10 / -2 / 23
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 58 / 30
Vikings:
Minnesota has Mr. You Like That at quarterback, and he’s actually leading the NFL in quarterback rating right now. We all know that Cousins’ stats are deceiving, because he has a tendency to fold when it matters most. Regardless, though, this offense runs through Cook first, who is 1st in the NFL in rushing yards, 5th in carries, and 7th in yards per carry. Cook is no joke, and he drives the Vikings offense. Minnesota is 4th in points, 6th in yards, and 1st in yards per attempt. Stefon Diggs is averaging 18.7 yards per reception, which is 6th in the league. They are the best team in the NFL in the red zone, as measured by touchdowns scored. This is a very complete offense with few if any weaknesses.
The Vikings are also effective on defense – 6th in points and yards per game surrendered – but not to the same extent that they are on offense. Opposing quarterbacks have a 92.7 rating, which is ranked 19th. Teams are averaging 3.8 yards per rushing attempt (ranked 9th). Minnesota’s defense hasn’t been particularly good in the red zone, surrendering touchdowns 61.11% of the time (ranked 21st). The Redskins would have to play their best game of the year, and hope that Cousins pulls a Cousins and plays badly because it’s prime time in order to take advantage of this, and that’s probably too much to ask.
Record: 5 – 2 (2nd) (Home: 3 – 0; NFC: 4 – 2)
All-time franchise record: 483 – 399 – 11
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
4 (points) / 6 (total yards) / 6 (yards per game) / 3 (yards per play) / 15 (passing yards) / 1 (passing yards per att.) / 2 (rushing yards) / 4 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 192 |
| Yards per game | 391.0 |
| Passing | 189 att (30th); 132 comp; 69.8% comp per. (4th); 9.1 Y/A; 1617 net yds; 13 TDs; 3 Int |
| Passing leader | Cousins (189 att, 1711 yds (14th), 69.8% comp per., 13 TDs / 3 Int, 114.3 QB rating (1st)) |
| Reception leader | Diggs (562 yds (8th), 42 tgts (46th), 30 rec (38th), 4 TD, 18.7 Y/C (6th)) |
| Rushing | 225 att (3rd); 1120 yds; 5.0 Y/A; 160.0 Y/G (3rd); 11 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Cook (133 att (5th), 725 yds (1st), 8 TDs, 5.5 Y/A (7th), long 75 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 12 / 12 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 29:48 / 17 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 42.11% / 13 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 70.83% / 1 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 6 (points) / 15 (total yards) / 6 (yards per game surrendered) / 7 (yards per play) / 19 (passing yards) / 6 (passing yards per att.) / 11 (rushing yards) / 9 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 123 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 327.9 |
| Opponent’s passing | 271 att (31st); 183 comp; 67.5% comp per. (23rd); 6.7 Y/A; 1665 net yds; 14 TD; QB Rating 92.7 (19th) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 165 att (14th); 630 yds; 3.8 Y/A; 1 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 19 / 11 / Hunter (7.0) |
| Tackles leader | Kendricks (61) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 7 / 8 / Harris (2) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 37.08% / 13 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 61.11% / 21 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 23.1 Y/R (11th), 8 returns, long 38 yards, 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 5.9 Y/R (25th), 21 returns, long 15 yards (24th),24th 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 27.3 Y/R (27th), 6 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 7.3 Y/R (18th), 13 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 46.6 Y/P (12th) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 11 / 13 / +2 / 14
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 54 / 26
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com