Game Preview, Week 9: Redskins at Bills
November 1, 2019
by Steve Thomas
Starting left tackle Trent Williams in happier times during 2018 training camp.
The march to the Redskins’ worst season ever continues. If you’re wondering, Washington’s worst season since the advent of the 16 game season in 1978 was the 1994 campaign, during which Heath Shuler and company went 3 – 13. The 1961 Redskins posted a record of 1 – 12 – 1, and the 1935 Boston Redskins were 2 – 8 – 1. This year’s crew appears to be striving to beat all three of those teams, and I think they can get there if they work hard, commit to poor team play, and above all else continue to exhibit the mass incompetency that has plagued essentially the entire season. Next up on the hit parade are the 5 – 2 Buffalo Bills, who just dropped their second game of the season to the Eagles. The Bills certainly have a good record, but they’ve also played pretty much every dreg of the NFL in those 7 games, including the Jets, Bengals, and the sad-sack Dolphins, plus the 2 – 6 Giants and even the 4 – 4 Titans, who aren’t exactly a bastion of NFL excellence either. So it’s possible that Buffalo might just be more vulnerable than it seems. How could the Redskins possibly win this game? Read on to find out.
Game time & location: Sunday, November 3, 2019, 1:00 p.m. ET, New Era Field, Orchard Park NY; Gates open 11:30 a.m. ET; parking lots open 9:00 a.m.
Television: Fox
Television announcers: Chris Myers, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin
TV broadcast map: Click here
DC-area radio: The Team 980
Redskins radio network: Click here
Bills radio network: Click here
Satellite radio: XM: 230 (Bills broad.) Sirius: 111 (Redskins broad); internet: 831 (Redskins broad.)
Redskins roster: Click here
Redskins depth chart: Click here
Bills roster: Click here
Bills depth chart: Click here
All-time head-to-head record vs Bills: 5 – 8 (last 5: 1 – 4) (streak: 1 – 0)
Last meeting: W, November 20, 2015, 35 – 25
Early odds: Bills, -10
3 KEYS TO THE GAME
Make Josh Allen beat you with his arm
Josh Allen is inaccurate and just not very good. His deep ball is, to say the least, suspect, but what he can do is run. Allen is athletic enough to be a legitimate threat on the ground; in fact, in his two seasons, he has 142 carries for 866 yards for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt, and 11 rushing touchdowns. The formula for Allen is to keep him in the pocket and make him beat you with his arm, because, again, he isn’t a good quarterback. The Redskins have been burned by guys like this before, though, so it might be a tall order.
Take away Frank Gore
Gore, who is 36 years old and will walk into the Hall of Fame 5 years after he retires, is the Bills’ non-Josh Allen workhorse on the ground. He’s averaging 4.4 yards per carry on 95 carries on the season. This offense is predicated on the run out of necessity due in large part to Allen’s limitations. Keeping Gore in check will be a tremendous boost to the Redskins’ defensive effort and will limit Buffalo’s options. Consider this an important key to the game.
Play a balanced, efficient game plan
The Bills are vulnerable on defense despite their gaudy statistics. The Redskins ought to be able to run on this team, but they also need Terry McLaurin and Paul Richardson Jr. to provide some semblance of a passing game in order to keep the Bills from stacking the box with 8 defenders. If the Redskins can get their act together in spite of the nonstop chaos that’s been swirling around the team this season (and every other season), they have a legitimate shot at a win this week. But it can’t just be Bill Callahan calling 55 run plays, because Buffalo is too good for that. The Redskins need balance this week.
3 KEY MATCHUPS
It’s time for Josh Norman to put on his big-boy pants. If Buffalo has a passing game, it runs through John Brown first. Norman needs to look like his former, younger self and provide some lock-down defense, because, again, the Bills offense is Allen, Gore, John Brown, and to a lesser extent Cole Beasley. Norman cannot be a weak spot. He needs to lock down Brown and take away this aspect of the Bills offense.
Ryan Kerrigan and Montez Sweat vs Dion Dawkins and Cody Ford
Ryan Kerrigan has taken flack for his performance this year, with good reason. This week might be a get-well week for him, though, because Cody Ford is (a) injured, and (b) not that good. The Redskins will need Kerrigan and Montez Sweat to not only put pressure on the young QB, Allen, but also to keep him in the pocket. The Bills have had their share of offensive line problems, and the Kerrigan-Ford matchup (if Ford plays) should be beneficial to the Redskins. Ford’s backup is former Redskin and friend of the show Ty Nsekhe, who Kerrigan obviously knows well, so he needs to win that matchup too, if it happens.
Terry McLaurin vs Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace
Scary Terry is the key to opening up the Redskins offense. As said above, the Redskins run game will work better with a passing threat, and this means a heavy dose of Terry McLaurin. White is the Bills’ best corner, but frankly McLaurin hasn’t come across a corner yet who’s been able to match him step for step. This is an essential matchup for the Redskins to exploit this week. If they don’t, Washington’s offense will become one dimensional, and that’s never good against a good defense.
OFFICIAL INJURY REPORT (as of Thursday (active roster only)) (starters in bold)
LP – limited practice FP – full practice DNP – did not practice
NIR – not injury related Q – questionable O – out
D – doubtful NL – not listed
| Redskins | Bills |
| S. D. Everett, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | LB L. Alexander, rest; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| S M. Nicholson, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | LB M. Alexander, knee; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O |
| RB A. Peterson, ankle; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP | T T. Nsekhe, rest; Wed: DNP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP |
| RB C. Thompson, toe; Wed: DNP; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP; game: O | S K. Coleman, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| TE V. Davis, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O | T C. Ford, elbow; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| CB Q. Dunbar, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | CB L. Wallace, shoulder; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: Q |
| LB J. Harvey-Clemons, hamstring; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | RB F. Gore, rest; Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP; Fri: FP |
| QB C. Keenum, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: LP; Fri: LP; game: O | DE S. Lawson, NIR; Wed: NL; Thurs: DNP; Fri: DNP |
| G W. Martin, chest; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| S J. Reaves, concussion; Wed: LP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| CB J. Norman, thigh / hand; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| WR S. Sims, Jr., toe; Wed: FP; Thurs: FP; Fri: FP | |
| DT T. Hester, elbow; Wed: NL; Thurs: NL; Fri: FP; game: Q |
TEAM STATISTICS
Redskins:
There’s no getting around the fact that the Redskins offense is basically pathetic. They are 30th in points, 28th in total yards, 28th in yards per play, and 29th in passing yards. They are 32nd and last in time of possession and have skyrocketed up to 31st in third down conversions. The Redskins are terrible in the red zone, having converted just 40% of their red zone trips into touchdowns (ranked 29th). The only saving grace is that the run game keeps getting better and better (now 17th in yards per attempt). Case Keenum’s stats are better than the eyeball test would tell you he’s played (67% completion percentage and 94.8 quarterback rating (15th), although he may not play this week due to his concussion. There’s not much redeeming about this group this year, except that Tress Way is the #1 punter in the NFL.
The Redskins defense is slightly better than pathetic, but they’ve nonetheless been a disappointment. They are just 24th in points surrendered and 28th in total yards surrendered. They’ve been absolutely atrocious on third downs, somehow rising up to 31st in the league only thanks to the greater ineptitude of the Miami Dolphins. The Redskins are 29th in rushing yards surrendered, although slightly better in rushing yards per attempt (20th). The two statistical saving graces for this unit are interceptions (8, which is 9th) and their performance in the red zone, at which they somehow ranked 12th, which is just upper middle but for this team qualifies as a success.
Record: 1 – 7 (4th) (Away: 1 – 3; AFC: 1 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 601 – 597 – 28
Offense
| Offensive rankings | 30 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 30 (yards per game) / 28 (yards per play) / 29 (passing yards) / 25 (passing yards per att.) / 24 (rushing yards) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 99 |
| Yards per game | 261.1 |
| Passing
|
237 att (24th); 156 comp; 65.8% comp per. (11th); 6.8 Y/A; 1411 net yds; 9 TD; 9 Int |
| Passing leader | Keenum (288 att, 1343 yds (26th), 67.0% comp perc (9th), 9 TDs / 4 Int, 94.8 QB rating (15th) |
| Receiving leader | McLaurin (458 yds (27th), 46 tgts (53rd), 28 rec (58th), 5 TD, 16.4 YPC) |
| Rushing | 163 att (25th); 678 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 84.8 Y/G (25th); 2 TD |
| Rushing leader | Peterson (97 att (21st), 383 yds (19th), 1 TD, 3.9 Y/A (35th), long 29) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 22 / 22 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 26:14 / 32 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 25.0% / 31 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 40.0% / 29 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 24 (points) / 28 (total yards) / 26 (yards per game surrendered) / 22 (yards per play) / 19 (passing yards) / 24 (passing yards per att.) / 29 (rushing yards) / 20 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 195 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 378.4 |
| Opponent’s passing | 264 att (17th); 192 comp; 72.7% comp perc. (31st); 7.7 Y/A; 1925 net yds; 14 TDs; QB Rating 99.9 (23rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 251 att (31st); 1202 yds; 4.4 Y/A; 6 TD; 137.8 Y/G (28th) |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 19 / 17 / Allen (4.0) |
| Tackles leader | Collins (70) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 8 / 9 / Dunbar (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 50.0% / 31 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 50.0% / 12 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 22.9 Y/R (13th), 15 returns, long 45 yards (13th), 0 TDs |
| Punt returns | 7.1 Y/R (18th), 9 returns, long 15 yards (25th), 0 TD |
| Kick return defense | 19.5 Y/R (5th), 4 returns, 0 TD |
| Punt return defense | 9.1 Y/R (25th), 20 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 50.2 Y/P (1st) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 14 / 11 / -3 / 25
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 62 / 27
Bills:
Statistically, Buffalo’s offense isn’t what you might think for a team that is 5 – 2 and in the middle of the playoff race. They’ve only scored 134 points, which is 25th in the NFL, and are just 24th in total yards. The Bills are a rushing team first (12th in rushing yards and 6th in yards per attempt), out of necessity, as quarterback Josh Allen lacks talent. He’s posted an 80.4 quarterback rating (28th in the NFL) and has completed just 60.1% of his passes (also 28th). Allen’s best skill is his running ability (235 yards of 653 carries, for a 4.4 yard per carry average, and 3 touchdowns). This Bills rushing talent translates well in the red zone, in which they are the #1 team in the league, converting 79.59% of their visits into touchdowns. The Redskins’ ability to stop Buffalo from running in the red zone will be key.
There’s no sugarcoating that the Bills’ defensive stats are top-flight: 4th in points, 3rd in yards, yards per play, and passing yards. Their weaknesses are rushing yards (17th in yards per attempt) and red zone defense (66.67% touchdowns, which is just 29th in the NFL). These stats are inflated by the incredibly poor competition they’ve played.
Record: 5 – 2 (2nd) (Home: 1 – 2; NFC: 1 – 1)
All-time franchise record: 420 – 479 – 8
Offense
| Offensive rankings
|
25 (points) / 24 (total yards) / 19 (yards per game) / 18 (yards per play) / 25 (passing yards) / 25 (passing yards per att.) / 12 (rushing yards) / 6 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points for | 134 |
| Yards per game | 345.7 |
| Passing | 239 att (21st); 143 comp; 59.8% comp per. (29th); 6.8 Y/A; 1507 net yds; 9 TDs; 8 Int |
| Passing leader | Allen (223 att, 1493 yds (22nd), 60.1% comp per. (28th), 9 TDs / 7 Int, 80.4 QB rating (28th)) |
| Reception leader | Brown (527 yds (17th), 53 tgts (31st), 38 rec (26th), 2 TD, 13.9 Y/C); Beasley (324 yds, 53 tgts (31st), 33 rec, 2 TD, 9.8 Y/C) |
| Rushing | 187 att (19th); 913 yds; 4.9 Y/A; 130.4 Y/G (8th); 6 TDs |
| Rushing leader | Gore (95 att (22nd), 422 yds (18th), 2 TDs, 4.4 Y/A (24th), long 41 yds) |
| Sacks surrendered / rank | 20 / 19 |
| Ave time of possession / rank | 30:16 / 13 |
| 3rd down conversion rate / rank | 34.48% / 23 |
| TD percentage in red zone / rank | 70.59% / 1 |
Defense
| Defensive rankings | 4 (points) / 3 (total yards) / 3 (yards per game surrendered) / 3 (yards per play) / 3 (passing yards) / 3 (passing yards per att.) / 14 (rushing yards) / 17 (rushing yards per att.) |
| Points against | 122 |
| Yards per game surrendered | 303.9 |
| Opponent’s passing | 242 att (8th); 145 comp; 59.9% comp per. (5th); 6.0 Y/A; 1361 net yds; 5 TD; QB rating 73.7 (3rd) |
| Opponent’s rushing | 181 att (13th); 766 yds; 4.2 Y/A; 9 TD |
| Sacks / rank / Sack leader | 16 / 24 / Phillips (5.0) |
| Tackles leader | Poyer (50) |
| Int / rank / Int leader | 6 / 17 / White (3) |
| Opponent 3rd down conv rate / rank | 37.0% / 12 |
| Opponent TD percentage in red zone / rank | 66.67% / 29 |
Special Teams
| Kick returns | 29.6 Y/R (4th), 7 returns, long 45 yards, 1 TD |
| Punt returns | 5.4 Y/R (27th), 17 returns, long 13 yards (28th), 0 TDs |
| Kick return defense | 18.2 Y/R (3rd), 10 returns, 0 TDs |
| Punt return defense | 12.2 Y/R (32nd), 9 returns, 0 TD |
| Punting | 41.4 Y/P (32nd) |
Turnovers (lost by O / recv’d by D / net / rank): 12 / 11 / -1 / 20
Penalties (total accepted # / rank): 59 / 23
* Statistics courtesy of www.pro-football-reference.com, www.nflpenalties.com, www.nfl.com, www.teamrankings.com, www.espn.com, www.sportingcharts.com