Chase-ing Value at #2
by Jay Evans
January 16, 2020
There is a storm brewing amongst Redskins fans. Two sides from the same aisle have splintered. Both are proud, rigid, jaded, and fervent. Ninety-eight days remain until the question is answered, and yet the townsfolk have begun sharpening their pitchforks with their heels already glued to the ground. To Chase Young, or not Chase Young, that is the question?
Whether ’tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take Arms against a Sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them: to die, to sleep;
Bill Shakespeare spent a lifetime examining the futility of the definite. There are few guarantees in the game of football and virtually none when it comes to the NFL draft. Two certainties do exist: the first round of the draft will take place on Thursday April 23rd and the Redskins currently hold the second overall pick.
Officially on the clock, the Cincinnati Bengals own the first overall pick in the upcoming draft and have a number of positions they could target. Any of the best prospects in the draft would fill a gaping need for the directionless franchise, but two prospects have risen above all others.
LSU quarterback Joe Burrow is the front runner to be the first player selected in the draft after arguably compiling the greatest season in college football history. Burrow, who struggled to find playing time at Ohio State (he was beaten out by Dwayne Haskins for the starting position in 2018), was viewed as a day three selection six months ago.
The fifth-year senior’s meteoric rise from a backup project with intriguing tools to number one overall pick is a remarkable tale of perseverance. After transferring to LSU, Burrow’s storybook season included 65 passing touchdowns (49 more than in 2018), the Heisman Trophy and a victory in the National Championship.
The other prospect is Ohio State defensive end Chase Young, who is regarded as the most complete pass rusher in the draft and viewed by many as the best overall prospect regardless of position. Unlike Burrow, Young has been on the radar of draft scouts for the better part of two years. At 6’5 and 270 pounds, he is a prototype 4-3 defensive end who amassed 16.5 sacks (30.5 for his career), 7 forced fumbles and finished fourth in the Heisman voting in 2019, a remarkable feat for a defensive player.
Both prospects have ties to the state of Ohio and are seen as potential foundational pieces. The Bengals benched longtime starting quarterback Andy Dalton for weeks 10 through 12 and most accounts have them leaning towards a quarterback, specifically the Ohio native Burrow, to build the franchise around.
This leaves the Redskins in the enviable position to select Young, a Hyattsville, Maryland native who attended DeMatha Catholic High School, but not all of the fanbase is on board with the selection.
Joe Marino of The Draft Network said, “Chase Young is a rare defensive prospect with an elite overall skill set. Projecting most favorably to a role at the next level as a 4-3 defensive end, Young is without limitations and . . . profiles as an instant impact edge defender with the upside to become one the NFLs most prolific defensive playmakers. He’s polished, powerful, athletic and features every desirable physical trait needed to excel in the NFL.”[1]
Washington ranked near the bottom, if not last, in nearly every major statistical category last season. There are glaring holes along the entire offensive line, tight end, and at least two players need to be added to the secondary. Depth needs to be added to wide receiver and linebacker, and the new coaching regime wants to bring in competition at quarterback.
Needless to say, the Redskins’ shopping list is substantial. It is fair to ask whether the Redskins can afford another defensive lineman, a position with already heavy investment, when they desperately need to fill other weaknesses on the roster? Could they benefit more by trading back and acquire more picks?
In 1989, Jimmy Johnson revolutionized the NFL with his Draft Value Chart. The former Cowboys coach developed a systematic rubric to establish a specific value for every pick in the draft. Today, every team works with a similar chart to determine the value of a pick and utilizes the chart to evaluate trades.
So, I ask a simple question: is the second overall pick worth more than the 76th overall pick? Before you click away because you think I’ve lost my marbles asking such a ludicrous question, consider this one thing: is the value of a player at two and his 8.3-million-dollar contract worth more than the other player seventy-four picks later and his salary which will average under a million a year?
Johnson’s draft chart was developed before the advent of free agency. In 2011, a new collective bargaining agreement ushered in a rookie wage scale, which has reduced the financial risk of missing on a prospect early in the draft. Rookie contracts are slotted into a parameter and any team can consult the salary associated with a certain pick in weighing the value.
The quality of player and the prospect’s position will carry a separate weight, in regards to the pick value, especially early in the draft. These examples highlight just a couple complications in assessing the draft value of a specific pick is deeper than the performance on the field.
Assuming you are still with me, the hypothetical draft selections from above will echo throughout. The second overall pick from the 2019 draft, Nick Bosa, accumulated 9 sacks, one interception, and elevated a good defensive line up to an excellent one. By all accounts, Bosa had a defensive rookie of the year-caliber season, but was he worth $7.5 million more than Redskins rookie wide receiver Terry McLaurin?
The second overall pick, depending on whichever draft chart you reference, is twelve times more valuable than the 76th pick. According to the Johnson chart, the second pick is roughly worth 2600 points, while the 76th selection is worth 210 points.
Assuming a player the caliber of McLaurin is available, there is no doubt every team in the league would trade a premiere pick for a bounty of reaches into the prize box knowing they could acquire McLaurin with at least one of the additional choices.
The rookie wide receiver nearly had a 1000-yard season and scored 7 touchdowns in 14 games. For just under a million dollars a year, McLaurin was one of the best values in the league and his entry level contract will provide cap flexibility for years to come.
The success rate for a first-round draft pick is roughly 53%, but for selections 1-5 the success rate is surprisingly accurate at 77.1% and this includes famous flameouts like JaMarcus Russell.
The statistics are clear – the further from the top of the draft a player is selected, the more unlikely it is to find competent professionals. The success rate of drafting a five-year starter drops precipitously after the first 24 selections, and finding players of McLaurin’s quality in the 2nd and 3rd round of the draft is around 30%.
Newly introduced head coach Ron Rivera has finalized the coaching staff, and based upon the administration and staff currently constructed we can expect a strategy that resembles the Carolina organization. This will include a switch to a 4-3 defensive front where Rivera and defensive coordinator Jack del Rio have found success coaching the likes of Julius Peppers, Von Miller, and Khalil Mack.
After selecting quarterback Cam Newton first overall in the 2011 NFL draft, the Panthers used four of their next five first-round selections on the defense. Rivera, a defensive coach by nature, clearly has a predilection for that side of the of the ball.
The Redskins have utilized three first-round selections in the past three drafts on the defensive line and used another on a quarterback. The significant capital spent on the defensive side of the draft has strengthened a glaring weakness compared to the talent from years past.
Recently, the San Francisco 49ers drafted defensive linemen Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Solomon Thomas with first-round selections in three consecutive drafts. The 49ers converted to a 4-3 defensive front and paired the young nucleus with Nick Bosa, an elite pass rushing prospect.
All three of the players had shown decent progress in their careers, but the transition from the 3-4 and the addition of Nick Bosa propelled the 49ers defense to one of the NFL’s best. The younger Bosa led the league with 61 Total Points Saved (TPS) (Joey Bosa was 4th with 48), added 9 sacks, and pressured the opposing quarterbacks 68 times. Armstead and Buckner in more complimentary roles finished the season with 19 and 15 TPS respectively.
Did you get the TPS reports?
The Redskins’ marvelous trio of Matt Ioannidis (7), DaRon Payne (2), and Jonathan Allen (-1) had a grand total of 6 TPS. Tim Settle ranked second on the team with three. The pass rushing linebackers (Montez Sweat, Ryan Kerrigan, and Ryan Anderson) contributed 75 TPS on the season, but with the transition to a new defensive front, responsibilities are going to change and expectations should be tempered for the linebackers to match their production in 2020.
Are we inching closer to determining if the second overall pick is still more valuable than an overachieving 76th pick? According to the same metrics, Terry McLaurin accounted for 34 Total Points Earned (TPE) (2.43 points per game). Even though he missed two games, McLaurin finished amongst some impressive company: Tyreek Hill (35 TPE), Austin Hooper (34) and Tyler Lockett (34).
A study conducted by ProFootballLogic determined that every “1 net point/game of impact above replacement level is worth about nine million dollars” in annual salary. Nick Bosa saved the 49ers defense an astounding 4.36 points per game or was worth nearly 40 million dollars. Bosa was worth 10 million more than McLaurin and 30 million more than Quinnen Williams and Clelin Ferrell, who were the third and fourth players selected in the 2019 draft, after factoring salary and production.
For perspective, in his rookie season Bosa finished as the number one defensive lineman in TPS and a full point better per game than All-Pro Aaron Donald’s 3.25 per game. Only T.J. Watt finished the season with a better TPS per game at 4.81 points per game.
Since 2002, 22.57% of all games were decided by three points or fewer. Furthermore, 13.68% of games were decided between four and six points. When more than 36% of all games are decided by less than a touchdown anyone who can alter a score by three points is significantly influential in the outcome of a game.
Consider the value of a player whose influence would change the score of a game from down six without their presence versus down two points with their presence. The hypothetical team is in a much easier situation, driving to kick a game winning field as opposed to needing a touchdown to tie, a much more difficult proposition.
Todd McShay, among others, has extremely high comparisons for Chase Young and has named him a better prospect than either of the Bosa brothers. One positive for drafting Young is that he doesn’t need to put up record setting numbers like either Bosa brother to have a monumental impact on the rest of the Redskin roster.
If Redskins opt to draft Young and he produces anywhere close to the top 25 TPS for a defensive lineman it would improve the defense by two points and more than twenty points saved over every other lineman on the team.
Coinciding with the coming scheme change under Rivera and Del Rio, the rest of the Redskins defense could replicate the improvement seen with the 49ers, which is something no offensive player in the draft can provide.
The Bengals could stun the draft community and choose Chase Young. This is not the worst scenario for the Redskins. As recognized, the Redskins have needs along the entire offensive line, in the defensive backfield, and could use another pass catcher to develop with Haskins.
Miami owns three first round picks and is in desperate need for a franchise quarterback. Their fifth and eighteenth overall picks are worth the same amount of points the second overall pick is valued, but the Redskins would likely be able to receive more compensation on the open market for either Burrow or Young.
The Dolphins could also hold steadfast at their current spots and be able to take the preseason projected first overall pick, Tua Tagovailoa, and use their picks as currently slotted. Any other team willing to trade up for the Redskins’ pick would need to offer a minimum of two first-round picks and another round two selection just to begin the negotiation process.
If the Redskins keep the second pick, they could target an offensive player with their selection to improve the worst ranked offense in the league, whether it be an offensive lineman or elite wide receiver, but there is little consensus as to who is the best of the eligible prospects.
Ohio State cornerback Jeffrey Okudah or Clemson linebacker Isaiah Simmons are maybe the next best prospects in the draft and would fill greater needs on defense, but Young is the safer pick.
While there is nothing certain, the riskiest decision the Redskins could make this offseason is hoping to hit grand slams on other prospects when Chase Young could be a “safe” homerun. The Redskins made the practical move in hiring Ron Rivera as head coach. The judicial move to revamp the coaching staff and front office has been viewed as necessary progress.
The Redskins could have upwards of 90 million dollars to spend in free agency and five (likely six after compensation picks are awarded) more selections in the draft to fill holes on the roster.
The downside to selecting Chase Young is the abundance of investments on the defensive line while simultaneously neglecting the remaining weaknesses.
While it is due diligence to consider the alternatives to selecting another prospect, the Redskins get the best value by drafting Chase Young and allowing the remining pieces to fall in place.
When a highly drafted player busts it is likely not a result of one condition, but many. If Chase Young is on the next “Biggest Busts of All Time” list, I can live with having been burnt by the hottest flame.
If the Redskins pass on Young and he reaches, or comes remotely close, his lofty potential, justification is still possible. The Redskins would need to draft another All Pro, something they haven’t had in thirty years.
[1] https://thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings. The quote can be found in Dan’s analysis of Young linked in the referenced prospect rankings.