The odds of success for a draft pick, part 4
April 21, 2020
by Steve Thomas
Welcome to part 4 of my response to an innocent one sentence question about draft success in our comment section a month ago. Before I get started, I’d like to quote myself in part 3: “I promise this will be the last edition of these columns, unless it isn’t, in which case I will withdraw my promise.” I did mean that at the time, but after due consideration, I thought that this whole effort would be better served with one additional piece of analysis, so here we are – promise withdrawn. Stay with me, because this one’s going to be fairly basic in terms of analysis.
First, here are the links to parts 1, 2, and 3 of this series:
Part 1, analysis of picks 1 – 10 from 2000 – 2019: click here to read
Part 2, analysis of pick 11 – 20 and 21 – 32 of round 1 and all of round 2 from 2000 – 2019: click here to read
Part 3, analysis of picks sorted by team from 2000 – 2019: click here to read
In this part, I’ll examine rounds 3 through 7; however, I’m going to take a different approach than I did in the previous efforts. Analyzing the chances of finding a First Team All Pro, or for that matter, even a Pro Bowler, drafted in these rounds is a pointless waste of time, because the odds are incredibly remote, and the data would include a whole lot of “0.0%” figures. Of the roughly 3700 players who have been drafted in rounds 3 – 7 between 2000 and 2019, just 20 total, from all positions, have been selected to 2 or more First Team All Pro teams, which is a hit rate of about .5%; i.e., one half of one percent. So, the odds of finding a superstar in the bottom five rounds are roughly that of having a unicorn trot up into your yard.
Given that, I instead decided to figure out the odds of unearthing a long-term starter in rounds 3 through 7. In order to do this, I pulled every player drafted in rounds 3 through 7 between 2000 – 2014 and counted every player who has been a full time starter for 4 or more seasons. I selected that particular 15 year period because it was the closest I could get to the present day while still giving players drafted in the later years a chance to develop into starters. My four year line is totally arbitrary, but I believe it represents a player who can be reasonably viewed as a regular starter. This isn’t perfect, but I think this is a reasonable way to analyze this question.
The Data
The follow chart shows (1) the total number of players drafted in rounds 3 and 4 between 2000 – 2014, sorted by position, (2) the total number of those draft players who have been full-time starters for 4 or more years, and (3) the percentage of such players, by position group and total per year:
| Position | Rd 3 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 3 by position | Rd 4 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 4 by position |
| QB | 18 | 3 | 16.67% | 20 | 3 | 15.00% |
| RB | 39 | 4 | 10.26% | 62 | 11 | 17.74% |
| WR | 72 | 17 | 23.61% | 65 | 7 | 10.77% |
| TE | 34 | 13 | 38.24% | 30 | 8 | 26.67% |
| OL | 79 | 41 | 51.90% | 89 | 24 | 26.97% |
| DT | 48 | 13 | 27.08% | 40 | 10 | 25.00% |
| DE | 36 | 12 | 33.33% | 46 | 14 | 30.43% |
| LB | 74 | 23 | 31.08% | 72 | 15 | 20.83% |
| DB | 107 | 22 | 20.56% | 113 | 17 | 15.04% |
| Sum | 507 | 148 | 537 | 109 | ||
| Total % starters | 29.19% | 20.30% |
The next chart shows the same data for rounds 5 and 6:
| Position | Rd 5 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 5 by position | Rd 6 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 6 by position |
| QB | 28 | 0 | 0.00% | 36 | 2 | 5.56% |
| RB | 40 | 2 | 5.00% | 57 | 1 | 1.75% |
| WR | 60 | 3 | 5.00% | 71 | 4 | 5.63% |
| TE | 36 | 8 | 22.22% | 32 | 7 | 21.88% |
| OL | 87 | 16 | 18.39% | 99 | 17 | 17.17% |
| DT | 35 | 6 | 17.14% | 42 | 4 | 9.52% |
| DE | 44 | 9 | 20.45% | 46 | 4 | 8.70% |
| LB | 72 | 10 | 13.89% | 62 | 6 | 9.68% |
| DB | 118 | 21 | 17.80% | 109 | 4 | 3.67% |
| Sum | 520 | 75 | 554 | 49 | ||
| Total % starters | 14.42% | 8.84% |
The next chart shows the same data for round 7:
| Position | Rd 7 | # started 4 or more yrs | % starters in rd 7 by position |
| QB | 31 | 2 | 6.45% |
| RB | 68 | 2 | 2.94% |
| WR | 93 | 6 | 6.45% |
| TE | 48 | 3 | 6.25% |
| OL | 123 | 16 | 13.01% |
| DT | 61 | 3 | 4.92% |
| DE | 65 | 4 | 6.15% |
| LB | 76 | 2 | 2.63% |
| DB | 122 | 6 | 4.92% |
| Sum | 687 | 44 | |
| Total % starters | 6.40% |
The next chart shows the total number of players drafted in rounds 3 – 7 from 2000 through 2014, sorted by position, the total number of starters, and the percentage of starters by position group:
| Position | Total # drafted | Total # starters | Total % starters |
| QB | 133 | 10 | 7.52% |
| RB | 266 | 20 | 7.52% |
| WR | 361 | 37 | 10.25% |
| TE | 180 | 39 | 21.67% |
| OL | 477 | 114 | 23.90% |
| DT | 226 | 36 | 15.93% |
| DE | 237 | 43 | 18.14% |
| LB | 356 | 56 | 15.73% |
| DB | 569 | 70 | 12.30% |
| Sum | 2805 | 425 | |
| Total % starters | 15.15% |
Analysis
As an executive summary, if you take nothing else from this column pay attention to the total percentages of starters unearthed in each round:
3rd round: 29.19%
4th round: 20.30%
5th round: 14.42%
6th round: 8.84%
7th round: 6.40%
In general, logic holds, in that each succeeding round is less and less likely to produce starters. The odds are slim, as a whole, even in round 3, but by round 5, it’s just half as likely as in round 3. Rounds 6 and 7 are about the same, with only a small handful ever becoming full-time starters.
As a side note, for those wondering, 70.80% of the players drafted in round 1, and 49.16% of the players drafted in round 2, between 2000 – 2014 in that time frame were full-time starters for at least 4 years.
So, overall, if you’re rooting for your favorite team to fill holes in its starting roster later I’m the draft, they’ll probably find some over the years, but it’s going to be few and far between. The more interesting information comes in from the individual position group data – offensive linemen drafted in round 3 became full-time starters at a rate of over 51%, which is far and away the largest percentage of any position group in any of the 5 lower rounds. If you learned anything from me over these past 4 columns, it’s that in the draft, coin flip odds are pretty good. In fact, offensive line is the leading position group overall (23.9%) and in every round except round 6. For whatever reason, on a percentage basis, it is clearly easier to find starting offensive linemen than any other position group.
On the other end of the spectrum, quarterbacks and running backs are tied for last with just 7.52% of each group drafted in round 3 through 7 becoming full-time starters for at least 4 seasons. Just four quarterbacks drafted in rounds 5, 6, and 7 over this time period started 4 or more seasons (including one of the best ever, Tom Brady). My prior studies showed that an abnormally-high number of running backs drafted at the top of the draft became elite players with Pro Bowl and First Team All-Pro honors. The same cannot be said of running backs just becoming starters: they have the lowest or second-lowest starter percentage in every round.
The next tier down is tight ends, at 21.67%, with defensive ends, linebackers, and defensive backs roughly grouped together below.
I don’t want this piece to be a long, detailed analysis, so I’ll end this here; you can plainly see the results for yourselves. The bottom line is that starters are hard to come by anywhere outside of rounds 1 and 2, with the exception of offensive lineman in round 3, but particularly in round 5 and below.