Who starts on the defensive line?
July 16, 2020
by Steve Thomas
Lost in the chaos of this offseason – from a global health crisis to massive societal unrest to more controversy surrounding the doomed team nickname and now a rumored “sad and disappointing” terrible story about the Redskins’ front office about to be published – is the effect of the Redskins’ switch from a base 3 – 4 to a base 4 – 3 on the depth chart of the team’s defensive line group. What’s the most effective use of these players that can improve the performance of the group as a whole? In other words, who starts, who rotates in, and who rides the pine? Wouldn’t you rather have a short break from controversy and general awfulness to talk some real football?
The principal group of contributors is obvious: on the outside, it’s Ryan Kerrigan, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young. On the inside, the principals are Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, and Daron Payne. The main backup on the inside is Tim Settle, with a host of others, including Jordan Brailford, Nate Orchard, Cameron Malveaux, and rookie draft pick James Smith-Williams on the outside. The division of playing time is a more difficult question than it seems, because out of this group, who is 100% assured of a starting role at the beginning of the season? Let’s dive in to that question.
Defensive tackles
The switch to the 4 – 3 probably affects the defensive tackles the most, because those players now have to move inside from where they primarily lined up last season. In the base 3 – 4, the defensive tackles are normally lined up at the 5 technique position, if not farther outside on occasion, with the nose tackle (Payne or Settle) at the 0 or 1 technique. More importantly, the simple fact of the matter is that there will now be only two starters, not three.
In 2019, Allen played and started 15 games, making 68 tackles, including 46 solo and 7 tackles for loss, plus 6 sacks. Ioannidis played 16 games, starting 15, with 64 tackles, including 42 solo and 11 tackles for loss, and 8.5 sacks. Payne played 15 games, starting 9, with 56 tackles, including 32 solo and 3 tackles for loss, with 2 sacks. Objectively, Ioannidis was the most productive, with Allen next, and Payne third; however, Payne also frequently lined up at nose tackle last season, where stats are hard to come by. For that reason, I’m not willing to hold Payne’s lack of stats against him.
Last year, Allen played in 69.0% of the team’s defensive snaps in 15 games. Payne plays in 72.8% of the defensive snaps in 15 games. Ioannidis played in 74.2% of the defensive snaps in 16 games. So, as we thought, all of three of them were on the field most of the field, and roughly the same amount of time. That doesn’t give us any indication of who might be more valuable in the 4 – 3; plus, we have no idea what the new coaching staff might think.
However, as I said, the base 4 – 3 requires the defensive tackles to usually be inside at the 3 technique instead of the 5 technique, and this requires bigger, stronger players. Payne is 6’2”, 308 pounds, Ioannidis is 6’3” and 308 pounds, and Allen is listed at 6’3”, 286 pounds. Payne did play quite a bit of nose tackle last year, but he doesn’t have the traditional body type of the 2-gapping nose tackle and is athletic enough to move out to the 3 technique position on a regular basis. Rob Henson pointed out on last week’s Hog Sty episode the importance of size for 4 – 3 defensive tackles. Ioannidis and Payne fit this bill – their strength and bulk might be an advantage over Allen, who is more than 20 pounds lighter than both others. My impression is that Payne and Ioannidis are each slightly more of a mauler than is Allen, which is an advantage. Also, Ioannidis’ cap hit is $6M in 2020, which is slightly larger than the rookie contract hits of Payne and Allen. For this reason, I think Allen is going to be the odd man out, with Payne and Ioannidis getting the first team reps. Settle, for his part, is far more versatile that one might think given his body type and could be a starter on another team, and he should be the other principal rotational backup.
Defensive Ends
The defensive end group has the same problem as does the defensive tackle group – there are three starting-quality players for two starting positions, Kerrigan, Sweat, and Young. The kneejerk reaction is that the second overall draft pick should be an instant starter, but remember, the team has the second-leading sacker in team history and last year’s first round draft pick in this group. Obviously Young will start for this team, hopefully for a long time, but I don’t think it’s such a clear decision as it seems for the start of the season. Kerrigan has been playing out of position as an outside linebacker his entire career, and it’s entirely possible that he has a late-stage career rejuvenation in 2020 in his first year as a full-time defensive end. Sweat, who had 50 total tackles and 7 sacks last year, came on strong in the second half of the season last year (5.5 sacks in the last 7 games), but did he do enough to assure himself a spot in the top two? As far as Young goes, he obviously has a crazy amount of talent and an essentially unlimited ceiling, but he’s also a rookie who needs coaching and time. Is Young really ready to outperform at least one of Kerrigan and Young right now? The top two players don’t seem to be all that obvious.
The truth is that the team has a tough decision here and that all three are going to get substantial playing time in 2020. Not one of these three truly has a locked down starting role, at least not early in the season. It seems equally likely to me that the team starts the two vets, Kerrigan and Sweat, the two youngest players, Sweat and Young, as well as perhaps the two most talented players, Kerrigan and Young. It’s a conundrum for the team – the good kind – with no obvious answer, and there’s really no objective criteria with which to use to guess at an answer. I can make a decent subjective argument for each possibility. If I had to guess, I’d say that Kerrigan will be listed as a starter next season out of respect, with Sweat being the second starter, but from a practical sense, that probably won’t make much difference in terms of playing time. Certainly, Jack Del Rio has a tough decision ahead of him, but all three should get a significant number of reps. As far as the backups, I continue to believe in Jordan Brailford, so I’m going to give him a backup rotational spot. Nate Orchard is probably the best of the rest, so he plays too.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section.