How to succeed in signing Brandon Scherff without really trying
March 17, 2021
by Steve Thomas
I’m getting tired of having write these types of columns. First, I had to do multiple “Kirk Cousins contract” pieces, and now I’m up to the third Brandon Scherff analysis. Do better, Washington.
As everyone is aware by now, Washington recently franchise tagged All Pro guard Brandon Scherff for the second year in a row. If he plays the season on the tag, he will count for $18.036M on the salary cap. Most importantly, playing a third season in a row, i.e. 2022, on a franchise tag will entail a prohibitive 44% increase in the salary cap hit than this season. In other words, in a practical sense, the 2021 season is the final franchise tagged season between Scherff and the Redskins Washington. As my colleague Dave Earl documented last week (click here to read), the fanbase is sharply divided about what the team should do about this conundrum. A significant number think this is turning into Kirk Cousins, part 2, whereas another group of people outright refuse to get behind paying Scherff big money for a long-term deal. So, what to do . . . ?
Let me help you out, and listen up, because I’m only going to say this once: offer Scherff the huge money long term contract. I realize that he’s had some injuries the last three seasons, but beyond that, he’s been everything teams dream about in a top five pick. If Scherff doesn’t deserve a big contract, who does? Washington is in outstanding cap shape, with $21M free after accounting for the franchise tag and signing quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, corner William Jackson, and Dustin Hopkins, which is still one of the most in the league. There’s no rational reason why this deal can’t happen. Or, at a minimum, there’s no Washington can’t present Scherff with a quality, in-the-ballpark offer, and force him to make a decision. Just what would such an offer look like? Fortunately, this sort of thing is my specialty.
I wrote a similar column early in the 2019 offseason in which I recommended a 6 year, $88M deal with $47.5M guaranteed at signing, $53M in total guarantees, and an average annual value of $14.67M. That sounds pretty good now, doesn’t it? Unfortunately, Washington screwed it up and failed get a contract on the books. A year later, my revised contract proposed increased to 6 years / $99.5M, $53.8M guaranteed at signing (54%), $67.24M in overall guarantees, and $16.5M average annual value. Once again, a long term deal didn’t happen.
Background
Scherff was drafted with the fifth pick in round 1 of the 2015 draft out of the University of Iowa. A tackle for the Hawkeyes, he was universally considered to be the best offensive line prospect in the draft that year. Some analysts pegged him as a better guard in the NFL, but that year the Redskins were desperate for a right tackle and brought Scherff to Washington to fill that role. However, Morgan Moses (who was the teams’ third round pick in 2014) came out of nowhere in training camp to take a major step forward from a shaky rookie year and was able to take over the starting right tackle role, allowing Scherff to move inside to his more natural position of guard. With that, the future of the right side of the Redskins’ offensive line was born.
Since his arrival in DC, Scherff has played and started in 78 games in six seasons and was elected to the Pro Bowl in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020. He earned First Team All Pro honors in 2020, and is the only Washington player to be so named since Matt Turk in 1996. His first serious injury came in 2018 when he tore his pectoral muscle in week 9 against the Falcons. He then suffered elbow and shoulder injuries that again forced him to injured reserve in early November, 2019, and missed three more games in 2020 due to an MCL sprain. In total, Scherff has played just 32 of 48 games in the last three years, which is a concern. However, he’s only missed 8 of the last 32 games, which is a bit better on a percentage basis.
Scherff’s rookie contract, signed in 2015, was valued at $21.125M over 4 years. The Redskins exercised their CBA-mandated fifth year option on Scherff for 2019 and he played the 2019 season on a fully-guaranteed $12.525M. Washington then franchise tagged him for 2020 at a cost of $15.03M. He’s earned more than $48M in his 6 NFL seasons.
What should Washington offer now?
Unfortunately, the team has let this situation go on long enough that Scherff now has all the leverage in terms of long-term contract negotiations. As I mentioned above, a third straight tag would mean a 44% salary increase, which would push his 2022 cap hit up to $26M, which isn’t feasible. Without a realistic option to tag Scherff for a third year, he is essentially guaranteed unrestricted free agency next year absent a long-term deal (the team hypothetically may be able to apply a transition tag, although such a thing has never been done). Washington is most likely going to have to just bite the bullet and offer a full value contract, understanding that he has no motivation to accept a contract that appears to be a pay cut. In my view, a long-term deal with Scherff must have two key elements in order to get signed: (1) it needs to have an average annual value that at least matches his franchise tag level, which is a bit over $18M per year, and (2) it needs to be the largest contract for a guard in the NFL. Dallas’ Zack Martin is still in first place in terms of total value at $84M over 6 years, for a $14M average annual value and a $20M signing bonus, whereas Andrus Peat’s new deal signed last offseason has 58.9% in practical guarantees.
Given that, these are the realistic targets: $18M per year in average annual value, $84M in total value, and 58.9% in practical guarantees. That equates to 6 years / $108M, with $63.6M guaranteed, or if the team wanted to shave a year off in recognition of Scherff’s age (which seems prudent), 5 years / $90M and $54M guaranteed. Again, Washington doesn’t have much leverage, so this is the ballpark for what it will take to get a deal done. I would offer a 6 year contract for a total value of $108M, with a $27M signing bonus, $12M in roster bonuses, and an average annual value of $18M. In my scenario, the base salary and roster bonuses for years 1 and 2 (2021 and 2022) are fully guaranteed, with year 3 (2023) being guaranteed for injury only at signing and becoming fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2023 league year. Here’s the year by year breakdown:
Year Age Base Salary Roster bonus Cap hit Dead Money
2021 29 $12.0M $17.4M $53.0M
2022 30 $10.0M $4.0M $19.4M $35.6M
2023 31 $12.0M $4.0M $21.4M $16.2M / $32.2M
2024 32 $13.0M $4.0M $22.4M $10.8M
2025 33 $12.0M $17.4M $5.4M
2026 34 $10.0M $10.0M $0
My contract proposal does several things: first, it makes him the highest paid guard in NFL history, with guarantees exceeding that of Zack Martin and the Andrus Peat’s guarantee percentage. Scherff would get $53M guaranteed at signing, $69M in practical guarantees and 64% of the contract paid in the first three years. In a nod to the team, it keeps the salary cap hit a little lower, relatively speaking, for the next two years in recognition of the league’s coronavirus-related revenue losses and saves the team a little over $600K in 2021 as compared to Scherff’s franchise tag amount. In reality, this contract proposal is a two year hard obligation for the team, but one that keeps Scherff with the Redskins Washington through his prime years while reducing his cap hit in the last two years as he ages. The team would have to make a quick decision on Scherff for 2023, but I suspect they would opt in unless Scherff’s injury problems get significantly worse. His cap hit in 2024 is $22.4M, which is obviously huge, but if Scherff isn’t performing, then they can cut him at a substantial savings. In 2024, I would make the entire roster bonus payable on day 1 of the regular season to make it a bit more favorable to Scherff. The salary cap is projected to greatly increase in the next few years with the start of the NFL’s new media rights agreements, so by 2025, a cap hit of $17.4 won’t seem like a huge amount.
I could design a contract of this size that keeps the 2021 cap hit very low, but honestly, I don’t see the point in doing that when Washington has a significant amount of cap space this year. I’d rather instead limit the relative pain in later years when he’s older.
I think this is a contract that Washington could swallow given their favorable salary cap situation. Giving Scherff a contract like this would have the tangential benefit of sending a signal to the rest of the team that Washington takes care of its own, because if a Top 5 pick who made a First Team All Pro team isn’t worth a massive contract, then who is?
The sad irony is that Washington could have done this two years ago at a savings of $20M, and last year at a savings of $8.5M, but that’s the cost of the mismanagement and poor decision making for which Washington has been famous . . . or infamous . . . for more than a generation.
What do you think? Let me know in the comment section below.